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11: Oregon

Hope: That last year's Sun Bowl outburst against a good USF defense (56-21 victory) with a third string quarterback was a sign of very good things to come.  JUCO star back LeGarrette Blount is expected to dominate right away.

Change: Wiry but awesome quarterback Dennis Dixon is off to the NFL.  With him went pounding tailback Jonathan Stewart and his nearly 2,500 all purpose yards.

Straight Talk: A projected 12 other starters return, however.  Oregon has an impressive group of offensive linemen and a loaded secondary to build from.  Last year's bowl star Justin Roper may once again find himself third or fourth string, that's how deep Oregon is at quarterback.  If Blount disappoints, senior Jeremiah Johnson is more than capable.  Oregon's offensive system appears to be a winner so long as it has a healthy quarterback with some reps under him.  Their defense will tell the story, but they appear to be the second or third best team in the Pac-10 this year and there's a steep drop-off after them.

12: Rutgers

Hope: That everything will be alright even with the departure of offensive workhorse Ray Rice

Change: Ray Rice is gone! The sky is falling!  Run!

Straight Talk: Rutgers is one of those teams that bores you to tears, but has a bit of Rocky in them.  Every time I was ready to write them off the last few years they'd find themselves and play tremendous football.  Rice is gone, but they have a surprising number of really good football players who we'll all finally notice now.  They've quietly become more explosive while still managing to do the dirty work of running the ball and stopping the run.  I'm shocked how low Rutgers is on most peoples' rankings, as I think they're presently a better version of what the Wisconsin model of football should be.

13: USF

Hope: That last year's collapse was merely growing pains for a still-young program that is in essence a commuter school (I love college football).

Change: Not much.  A total of 17 starters are projected to return although two elite corners moved on to the NFL.  Auburn is now off the schedule but there will be a big home game on Sept. 13 against Kansas.

Straight Talk: This is a team more than capable of being in the top 25.  They play hard-nosed football, but have some creative offensive looks and rally behind the charismatic quarterback Matt Grothe.  They could use a little more help from backs Mike Ford and Benjamin Williams but this appears to be a team that will contend for the Big East crown.

14: Wake Forest

Hope: That coach Jim Grobe's straightforward approach continues to work.  Wake likes veteran players and an offense built around all kinds of tricky looks to create running lanes and attack space.

Change: Not much on defense, as nearly the entire squad returns.  The offense takes some hits with the graduation of some receivers and linemen as well as do-it-all star Kenny Moore.  He'll be tough to replace.

Straight Talk: This is one of the better teams in a weakened ACC.  Josh Adams was a revelation last year, gaining close to 1,000 yards outplaying veteran Micah Andrews.  Cornerback Alphonso Smith is getting lots of NFL looks.  The defense surrendered just 3.2 yards/carry last year and should produce something similar this year.  Quarterback Riley Skinner disappointed last year but he's still only a junior and posted 72% completions last year which is remarkable.  Lots to like here.

15: Alabama

Hope: To return to championship football.  The program's at least another year away if not more, but with Nick Saban they may finally have stability and turn the corner on the gruesome years since the departure of coach Gene Stallings (and the ghost of Bear Bryant).

Change: A top-rated recruiting class, for starters.  Receiver Julio Jones is already getting phenom hype.  They'll need his production after losing the top three receivers from last year.  Alabama also switched out offensive coordinators, trading Major Applewhite for Fresno State's Jim McElwain.

Straight Talk: The schedule is tough.  Alabama isn't the most explosive team offensively but their solid line should be able to run the ball and help sophomore Terry Grant to a really nice season.  They must also get past the string of four consecutive defeats last year before the bowl victory.  There's a lot on this program's plate and tremendous expectations and impatience, but it's hard not to like a team with players like Rolando McClain, Rashad Johnson, Andre Smith, Antoine Caldwell and Julio Jones.  Alabama should be above average, but not quite elite.

20: BYU

Hope: Lots of it. BYU finished 11-2 last year including a last-minute bowl victory over UCLA to avenge one of its defeats. Nine starters return on offense including surprise quarterback Max Hall, who transferred in from Arizona State.

Change: Only three defensive starters return which could spell trouble although there are only two underclassmen projected among the starters.

Straight Talk: The more I think about it this may be a bit high for the Cougars. They'll be tested early against Washington and UCLA before things lighten up. Their defense wasn't bad last year (3 yards/carry, 210 pass yards, 57% completions) but that could take a hit which the offense needs to make up.

19: Auburn

Hope: Tommy Tuberville is above peers when it comes to choosing qualified coordinators (ignoring the Hugh Nall disaster). He's lost a ton of them in recent memory, and his newest test is offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. He brings in a wide-open offense As Seen On TV/Internet.

Change: The new offense moves Auburn into the modern era offensively, but is it too fancy for the hard-hitting SEC? Florida had no trouble transitioning to Urban Meyer's offense, but they've kept focus on being tough and Tim Tebow is a major piece of that artillery. Kodi Burns isn't powerfully built so the test will be how well Auburn keeps its powerful backs involved.

Straight Talk: Auburn looks a bit down this year, but they always, always beat one or two teams nobody expects them to. I don't envision a 10 win season, but they should be a gleeful spoiler in a loaded SEC this year and come out of it with 8 or 9 wins like last year.

18: Texas

Hope: Something better? The Colt McCoy toughness shtick got a bit old last year as he tossed 18 interceptions and was bailed out late in the year by a resurgent Jamaal Charles. In steps the very athletic John Chiles to shoulder a bit more of the quarterback burden and add a new element to the position not seen since Vince Young.

Change: Only four defensive starters are back. Will Muschamp was hired from Auburn to revive the Texas defense and give them a bit more toughness and energy.

Straight Talk: Texas is still very near in memory to that 2005 title team and I think is still sleepwalking a bit since then. They're fat and happy if you will. Between that mentality and lack of a real national star on either side of the ball to give them more of an identity, I think we're looking at another typical Texas season with 10 or so wins and a likely defeat to Oklahoma.

17: Texas Tech

Hope: That the program's crazy offense plays even better than last year and that its defense continues to have a pulse. If they can merely stop someone on occasion Texas Tech is suddenly quite dangerous. Their defense found a pulse after the termination of the DC midway through last year, and more of the same is expected.

Change: Not much other than experience. A total of 18 starters are projected to return, including the program's two best players in receiver Michael Crabtree and quarterback Graham Harrell. I can look at Crabtree's numbers last year as a redshirt freshman and I still don't believe them they're that good.

Straight Talk: This is a put up or shut up year for Texas Tech. The offense is always good, but they appeared to have turned a corner last year with Crabtree's ascent and the victory over Oklahoma. People are expecting very big things this year, including a victory over Texas and being near the top of the Big 12 South standings.

16: Michigan

Hope: The program is experiencing a breath of fresh air with the departure of good guy but curmudgeonly Lloyd Carr.  Rich Rodriguez's offenses at West Virginia were ridiculous, and achieved with modest talent.  Michigan recruits better than all but a few programs, so people are putting two and two together and thinking Michigan's headed for the elite quite soon.

Change: Of course, that won't happen overnight.  Michigan had to face the transfer of the likely starting quarterback and a starting linemen and others will likely depart after they realize they're not good fits once the season starts.

Straight Talk:  Michigan will take its lumps early, but I think they'll be way better than expected.  The Big 10 isn't particularly daunting this year and the program's excitement and positive vibes may give them a psychological edge that trumps the newness to the system.  Michigan showed tremendous guys in rebounding from the home disasters against Appalachian State and Oregon last year.  Credit goes to the old staff, but also to the players who kept their heads straight and went about the business of getting to a decent bowl and then taking it to Florida.  I see similar gumption holding the team together this year.

ricefootball.net

What a difference a year makes for Rice's Jarrett Dillard.  Some other receiver at a Texas school seems to have blown this guy off the national radar, huh?

As always I go by power rankings, how good a team is instead of what its schedule says it should be.  Once the season starts everyone's rankings get blown to bits anyway, mine included.

Five teams will be released a day, with the finale on Monday.  We're going with an Election 2008 theme here.

25: Colorado

Hope: That last year's young team took its lumps and has a better grasp on how to win ballgames.  Cody Hawkins threw for over 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns last year as a redshirt freshman, numbers that should improve.

Change: A respectable recruiting class including the bruising and speedy consensus top back Darrell Scott.  Fourteen starters return, so the "change" if you will is a return of the core of last year's team.

Straight Talk: Maybe I'm crazy but Colorado should be pretty darn good this year.  That schedule is tough with West Virginia and Florida State and Texas and Missouri, but everything else is winnable.  Their defensive interior should be quite good with senior tackles Brandon Nicolas and George Hypolite back.  This is a team that should be able to run the ball, stop the run, and throw the ball and put up points in a program that's used to winning.

24: Wisconsin

Hope: That I don't fall asleep writing about them?  Wisconsin is unique in that they've played a certain way for well over a decade now.  Their success hinges at some level on how good conference opposition is in any given year.  They'll never dominate the Big Ten but they're ready to pounce if the usual favorites aren't playing like a top 10 team.

Change: Quarterback Tyler Donovan graduated.  He was solid, but I'm sure they're hoping for something more out of the position.  That may not happen this year with Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge.

Straight Talk: There's not much to write about in the Big Ten this year.  Illinois loses its best player and many people seem to think they're headed for another trip to the Rose Bowl.  In other words, the league is a disappointment once you get past Ohio State.  This is a great place for Wisconsin to make a move, although I hunch Michigan will be much better than people anticipate.

23: Pittsburgh

Hope: That star back LeSean McCoy stays healthy and carries this team to the top of a weakened but incredibly competitive Big East.

Change: Expectations!  That's weird to say about Pitt, but there hasn't been much excitement here since Larry Fitzgerald went to the NFL.  This program has a recent enough history of winning to point towards, but could afford a little more talent than they've got right now.

Straight Talk: McCoy can do a lot of damage on his own, but staying in the rankings will involve stealing some wins they didn't get last year (like against Connecticut, Navy and Louisville).

22: Fresno State

Hope:A WAC Championship, coach Pat Hill's first, would be nice.  The first win against Boise State since 2005 would be nice as well.

Change: The revolving door at Offensive Coordinator continued.  Out went Jim McElwain to Alabama, in came Doug Nussmeier.

Straight Talk: This is a nice little team, with a senior quarterback with NFL prospects, sophomore tailback Ryan Matthews and seven returning starters on a still-young defense.

21: Clemson

Hope: A top 10 season is expected with yet another season of Davis/Spiller and a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Cullen Harper.  The ACC appears to be horribly average once again while Miami and Florida State slumber, Boston College lost its quarterback and Virginia Tech can't figure out how to run the ball or figure out its quarterback.

Change: Clemson didn't quite collapse late last year, winning five of its last seven and dropping close ones to ranked Boston College and Auburn in the bowl game.  Has this manic program finally figured it out?

Straight Talk: ... I don't think they have.  They simply deflated a little earlier, by the middle of last year in embarrassing back-to-back defeats to Georgia Tech (13-3) and Virginia Tech (41-23).  There's a ton of talent here and a lot of people are excited about frosh defensive end Da'Quan Bowers, but that offensive line is extremely young and the opener against Alabama could end the season before it even begins.

Very cool, thanks for the kind words Trev!

This is a reminder to get back to writing some more.  I've been busy with the software changeover and getting the College Football FanHouse up to speed.  Fear not, content is coming, and lots more railing against a college football playoff.

And far from final.

The software that I use to run College Football Resource recently underwent a massive update.  Unfortunately the old template I had been using is outdated, making life hell in trying to do even the easiest of changes on here.

So: new style, new look.  I've gotta play around for a while and see what I can put together here.

MGoBlog's Brian Cook (via FanHouse)

There's a photographer in the back with a West Virginia hat. Am I going to have to throw myself in front of a bullet in a couple hours?

Heh.

Hopefully there won't be any disruptions this year.  In the meantime, say hello to Bertha.

(--) Jerry Green at the Detroit News proposes an annual Pac-10/Big Ten football challenge.  I like it, although I'd do it on a much smaller scale, with at most 2-3 games between the conferences.  Additionally, I'd love a similar hyped "series" between all the other conferences as well.  A natural fit would be an SEC/ACC challenge, for example.

Those would be a smart fixed starting point, and then everything else could rotate, so we could see a Pac-10/Big 12 series one year, and then a Pac-10/SEC series the next.  This is dream world stuff, I know, but it's fun to think about.  Obviously teams independently schedule out-of-conference opponents to where organically you might see several SEC/ACC games early in the year, but it might be nice to have the schools, conferences and television networks get together and coordinate such games and make them more of an event.

Bringing back the "Kickoff Classic" type games would be tremendous as well.  There's still plenty of room for regular season growth in college football, and these types of ideas should be at the top of the list of those responsible for the stewardship of the sport.

(--) Lou Holtz has obviously learned the dangers of mixing sports and politics.  The South Bend Tribune links him to controversial and recently deceased North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms.

(--) More from the Deseret News about the always-interesting Pac-10 expansion talks.  Ain't happening, for philosophical as well as cash reasons as spelled out by Dick Harmon.

(--) USC continues to clean up in recruiting.  It's still unclear what the NCAA will do about the Reggie Bush situation, but if recruiting is a barometer for anything it appears USC isn't in much danger.

(--) This bums me out: Most college football coaches favor an early signing period.  For fairly obvious reasons, I think it's unwise to lock players into commitments before college football's hiring/firing season is over.  This works well for lazy coaches and extremely committed players, but I think the longer recruiting stretches out the more information all parties can gather which leads to better decisionmaking.

(--) Cool new SMU uniforms.  They're a throwback to the Pony Express days.  I like the look, but they're tempting fate in looking back to an era that ended up with the "Death Penalty".

(--) Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford is getting some love.  I hyped him as a recruit and he's turned into a solid player, but in that Georgia offense he may never quite become all that he can be as a passer.  Heisman talk seems outrageous unless Georgia greatly opens up their offense, which is debatable given just how good their running game will likely be this year.

(--) An Anaheim man will attempt to set a world record by sitting in every seat in the Rose Bowl.  A good chunk of the "seats" are actually barely-marked benches, so we doubt just how accurate that final seat count will be.  Whatever, good luck to him as it is for a good cause.

The Pac 10 is the gemini conference, made up of twin universities in each state/region of the west, and it has remained unchanged for 30 years. There's a lot of people who would like to see the conference add two more members to make 12, but that's just not going to happen - ten is the number of balance for this conference.

One of the main reasons the Pac 10 won't add two more schools is that the presidents of these universities don't feel that any other schools in the west measure up to their institutions' high "Research I" standards. Whether or not that's true doesn't matter - it's what they believe. And this group of university presidents is about as tightly knit as you're going to find in the NCAA. They're probably more unified than any other group of administrators in their conference-wide decision making, and they're unified against not expanding further.

- The National Championship Issue

Bobby Bowden manages to pull this off.  Not so much for Pete Carroll.  Dude.

^{USCFootball.com} 

Fresno State is thriving from a postseason model that actually works

- Caption under a photo in this article by Rivals.com's Kendall Rogers

First things first, let's get this out of the way: I really like college baseball.  Love the ping of the bats.  Love the tradition.  Love the College World Series, even.  But college baseball boosters are fooling themselves if they see their sport as some great model of equity and fairness.  Equally foolish is pretending college baseball's championship is superior to anything, particularly college football's.

Some celebrate the elevation of the little guy like this year's champion Fresno State.  It's a great story, and I don't want to detract from that, but pronouncing their rise as why the college world series is superior to say, college football, is laughable.  Fresno State was a good team, not a great team in a year with several great teams like Miami and Arizona State.  That both they and fringe top 25 opponent Georgia were in the final speaks volumes to the inefficiency of college baseball's postseason model.

Their ascent proves just how open the model is, but what you gain in inclusion, you lose in, you know, accuracy.  College baseball's championship ends up being more fabled than college football's when it's all said and done.  I do give credit to college baseball for going to a "best of three" championship series, but that's nothing compared to Major League Baseball's "best of seven" and that model is itself deeply flawed.  Too much statistical noise and factors outside of the actual quality of a team work their way into the actual outcomes when the only control is double elimination in regionals and best of three in the championship.

Thus: Fresno State and Georgia instead of say, Arizona State and Miami.

Did I mention just how flawed the actual allocation process is?  The tournament committee continues to use the horrid and inaccurate RPI in selecting teams, and then unfairly allocates where those teams end up, working against western squads in particular.  But college football is the bad guy.  Right.

He served Georgia well

^{Kelly Lambert/Flickr}

Name the most recent college football team with fewer than two losses and a high national ranking (top Ten Associated Press) in one season fall to a losing record the next

Video from the season finale of The Office, about the whole Kevin/Holly dynamic.  It's gold.

From the gimmicky state vs. state/city vs. city pre-finals bet files:

Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is stepping things up with his proposal to Boston's Thomas Menino for the NBA Finals. You can read his full letter below the jump, but here's the good part:

If the Celtics win, we'll send you the best professional football team L.A. has to offer: the Arena League's Los Angeles Avengers.

If the Lakers win, we get the Patriots.

Villaraigosa is a UCLA grad.  Take that, Reggie Bush!

Interesting exchange here between SEC Commissioner Mike Slive and Florida State President T. K. Wetherell.  Excerpted from The Wizard of Odds:

Recent comments about a playoff system by Florida State president T.K. Wetherell sparked the ire of SEC commissioner Michael Slive. "Let me always be very clear to tell you I don't agree with the Florida State president," Slive said. "President Wetherell's statements were counterproductive, because those who support a plus-one do not support a playoff. I never said playoff. I never used the 'p' word."

That strikes me as terribly naive, if not an outright con job by Slive.

As noted many times on here, a four-team "Plus One" will never last.  Too many forces will be at work and eventually stretch that thing out to something bigger than envisioned.  It's sort of like where if you buy a property, you're buying whatever else is associated with it including neighbors and dead bodies (see Funny Farm).  Slive should know better, as several of his fellow conference commissioners have gone public with concerns about a Plus One eventually expanding into a full-blown playoff.

He's correct in that he may never (to our knowledge) us the "p word" when talking about a Plus One, but indirectly he really is.  The Plus One is effectively the gateway to -- shudder -- a real playoff in college football.  I don't think Slive is so naive as to not realize what the extension of his Plus One plan is.  This of course makes me suspicious that although publicly he's not saying the "p word", in his heart that's what he is working towards.  Hopefully I'm wrong, but Slive's no dummy, he has to know the down-the-road inevitability of a playoff if a Plus One is arranged.

(Via: The Wiz) 

I'm in favor of scrapping it.

All those in favor say aye, all those opposed say nay.