Screwy polls
Sunday, September 18, 2005 at 10:18PM Who... Is... Best...?
That really should be the primary determining factor with poll voters. But it's not. So instead we have the most unusual results, mostly determined by slotting teams by number of losses.
Why is LSU #3, and ahead of Virginia Tech? They were embarrassed by ASU, only to cobble together two rare special teams scores and a miracle last minute touchdown. Meanwhile, ASU's scratching its head as their offense continues to roll... good enough for a #17/#18 rank. The Hokies have gone out and punched in consecutive 45-0 shutouts, have a real defense, and can also score. Who is better? How can anyone argue LSU? And you wonder why I come off as anti-SEC, when a lot of little things break that conference's way.
This is just a hunch, but one based on watching all these teams---LSU will be somewhere from second to fourth best in the conference. Georgia is less structurally flawed. Same with Florida. And LSU looks to be closer to Tennessee's league. But somehow they're good enough for the #3 rank. Go figure.
Here's another poll head-scratcher: Ohio State #8/#9. Yes, they played Texas close at home. Yes, they have Ted Ginn. No, they don't have a competent quarterback. Kind of important, no? Generally top ten teams are the most likely ones to contend for a national championship. Generally... these teams don't have major offensive issues and can blow away teams like San Diego State at home.
Purdue is at #11/#10. This is a team that almost lost to Arizona. Its a team that cannot effectively run the ball against nominal competition. Its a team slotted in here almost completely in anticipation of their non Michigan/OSU schedule. Are the Boilermakers really the 10th best team in America? This is a down year in college football if that's your conclusion.
Where is Michigan State? #17 or #22 depending on the poll. They cleaned Notre Dame's clock, watched Notre Dame pull its usual South Bend magic act to tie the game in OT before reality set in and the Spartans won on the first play of the first overtime. Looks to me like a top 15 team, at least.
Oh, I almost forgot. Florida State comes in at #6 and #7. Here's another school with a horrible, clumsy, disjointed, no-good offense and a defense that cannot completely shut down a fairly pedestrian opponent offense. By having the Noles here we're saying that a team with a crappy offense, run by a shaky redshirt freshman, a team that has no clue how to make use of unnatural offensive talents in Lorenzo Booker and Fred Rouse, a team whose supposedly dominant defense let B.C. get to 17 and nearly 24 on them, is knocking at the door of the top five teams in America?
What a mess. Unfortunately, the system is now such that voters are scared into a certain kind of behavior, falling back on untrue public perceptions about certain institutions (i.e. FSU) and conferences (i.e. SEC) to dictate how they determine a top 25 ranking. The inputs are bad, which means the outputs are bad.
Time to start demanding of voters that they answer the simple question: who is best? Put that team #1. Follow that choice with your #2 team, etc. I have a hard time believing that this week's poll (and many similar polls before and after) reflects the collective view of people entrusted to determine the game's best teams. I have to believe they know better, that they aren't completely mailing this in, falling back on dusty, time-gone-by logic to make their picks.
Maybe next week will be better... yeah right.
Reader Comments (8)
Actually, I find the contention that LSU is overrated and VT is underrated to be interesting. To some extent, the only difference between the two teams is that LSU hasn't blown out Ohio and Duke. Both LSU and VT went on the road in their openers and were outplayed by quality opponents, and had some fortuitous plays go their way in order to get the win--in the case of LSU, the FG and Punt blocks, and in the case of VT, in the form of a fair catch for NC State at its own 1 yard line, that ultimately set up VT with a 20-yard drive for the go-ahead TD.
I'd argue that ASU is better than NC State, that Tempe is a tougher place to play than Raleigh, and that statistically the dominance of the losing teams in the two games was about even. I'd guess that you agree that ASU is better, since ASU is in your top 10, and that no one would really argue that Raleigh is a tougher place to play then Tempe. So why the hype for VT? Were the wins over Ohio and Duke all that impressive?
Teams will continue to improve and decline, but right now, relatively speaking, I think LSU's a clown at #3. Louisville might drop 50 on them, and I doubt LSU couldn't put that many on the Cardinals. I'm fairly certain ASU would love to have a second go at the Tigers. Etc...
One way you can tell that Va. Tech is better than LSU is just by personnel.
Va. Tech has better receivers, better running backs, a better tight end, and the quarterback is probably slightly better.
I would say the defense is better, though I will acknowledge that it hasn't been tested the way LSU's was.
There are other ways to figure out how good a team is than just who they played.
HP, there are several ways to rank teams. It seemed as if RA is taking the pollsters to task for not ranking teams based on performance thus far, hence the content of the original article. So, I framed my argument based on that contention, i.e., that if you look at what they have done on the field so far there isn't much difference.
That said, I would disagree that VT has better receivers than LSU, and I'm not too sure about the RBs (mostly lost in all of the discussion RE ASU-LSU is LSU's best WR, Bowe, missed the game, and their 2nd best WR, Davis, missed the last 3 quarters--Early Doucet, the WR most pivotal in the game, isn't even supposed to be starting this season). VT does look considerably better on D, of course.
Louisville's offense has proven itself to be dynamic, and although they struggled against Kentucky, it sure looks like they fixed themselves against Oregon State.
How did FSU show that anything was fixed? Their great D suddenly looked quite creaky against a pretty average BC offense (great goal line stand aside), and their O is still run by perpetually inept Bowden Child #5.
I think LSU should be a lot farther down. ASU took them to the woodshed, only to watch a stunning "comeback" built not on offense or defense, but the rare double special teams touchdown and miracle TD pass. That team has all kinds of defensive and offensive issues. They look like your standard 9-3 lose to Iowa LSU squad. That reeks of top 15, but not top 10 or #3 material.
Tennessee lost to UF, but they also are run by guys doing their best village idiot impression (see Ainge V. Clausen entries on here). To me that puts you on shaky ground, and certainly not in contender status. Definitely not top 10 material.
As for Michigan, in my eyes that loss is a fluke, the product of Chad Henne morphing into Chris Rix for a game. If its not a fluke, I'll downgrade them as such. Their performance to me this weekend is indicative of a top 10 team, taking care of business. Much like UGA and Texas.
As you said, its early. I have my reasons and I think they're pretty sound. We'll see which teams I've added work out and which don't, and which teams conventional wisdom props up that I disagree with that also fall down.
It is true that JB is inept but if you watched the last 15 mins of the BC game you would have seen that FSU started moving the ball at well...and FSU probably would have scored 30+ points on BC if they didn't screw up that fumble call. If JB keeps running the Spread Offense I think FSU will keep on rolling through their schedule...the last thing the ACC needs is an FSU team with confidence. I'm curious what you're going to say if FSU keeps winning. Can an offense really be that inept if the team keeps winning? Or is it the overrated defense that's getting it done?
It sounds like you have an agenda.
Michigan State...you have an argument there. Stanton is an absolute stud and he is a tremondous field general. The kid gets it done...we'll see if he can get it done against Michigan in two weeks. As for ND pulling off the "usual South Bend magic"...well, who says there's anything wrong with that? If scoring touchdowns is magic...I'm sure there are plenty of teams willing to learn some of those tricks.