Nice job, HP

For laughs I've been reviewing some of my earlier blogging efforts here at CFR.

A mere week into into dot-com existence, I was talking about the Heisman trophy.  Here's an entry about HP's "Heismandment No. 7"-Heismandments, Extrapolated.

Here was the Heismandment:

7. If you are a quarterback or running back at the following schools, you have a good chance to win if you have a very good statistical season, are an upperclassmen and your team wins at least 9 games: Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami and Florida State. These 9 teams have won 10 of the last 13 Heismans and six of the last seven.

Here was CFR's "no duh" analysis:

Well, if that holds like it did last year, here are the candidates who can win the Heisman from those schools:

• Notre Dame-Brady Quinn
• USC-Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White
• Texas-Vincent Young, Selvin Young
• Oklahoma-Paul Thompson
• Nebraska-Joe Dailey, Cory Ross
• Ohio State-Troy Smith, Justin Zwick
• Michigan-None
• Miami-Tyrone Moss
• Florida State-Wyatt Sexton, Leon Washington, Lorenzo Booker

It is very likely one of these 15 athletes will win the 2005 Heisman Trophy. Scary, but true.

HP's rule got it right, naming the eventual winner and also naming the entire field of finalists and 4 of the top 5 finishers, only neglecting 5th place finisher Michael Robinson, the Penn State quarterback.

Note that I referred to the Heisman runner-up by his more formal name, Vincent.  Man I'm a nerd.

Anyway, let's extrapolate on the extrapolations, shall we?  Below are the same programs, with their new Heisman trophy candidates for 2006.  This should be fun to review in oh, 10 months.

• Notre Dame-Brady Quinn, Darius Walker, Travis Thomas
• USC-John David Booty, Hershel Dennis, Chauncey Washington, Desmond Reed
• Texas-Ramonce Taylor, Selvin Young
• Oklahoma-Paul Thompson, Adrian Peterson, Jacob Gutierrez
• Nebraska-Zac Taylor, Brandon Jackson
• Ohio State-Troy Smith, Justin Zwick, Antonio Pittman
• Michigan-Chad Henne, Mike Hart
• Miami-Kyle Wright, Andrew Johnson, Tyrone Moss
  
• Florida State-Lorenzo Booker, Jamaal Edwards, Lamar Lewis

It's February, but I don't hold high hopes for this field---Quinn, Peterson, Wright and Booker show the most Heisman promise.

References:

• HeismanPundit.com
• The 10 Heismandments

***

Previous:

• Heismandments, Extrapolated
  
• The Heismandments

Also:

• No surprise, Brady Quinn to Return
• 2005 Heisman Trophy Winner, Reggie Bush!
  
• 2005 Heisman Trophy Presentation "Live Blog"

Comments

[James]

Dude, you are crazy. I am a Notre Dame fan, still hurting from that Fiesta Bowl. Why? Troy Smith. He is a better quarterback than Kyle Wright, but you think Wright has a better chance at the Heisman? With a crappier Miami team? No way.

[CFR]

James,

If you've read the Heismandments, you know certain statistical benchmarks must be met (in general) to gain legitimacy with Heisman voters.

Troy Smith will always be at the low end of the stat totals spectrum playing in that offense. It's not fair or necessarily right, but it's the reality that Heisman WINNERS put up great numbers. Smith's are just so-so and that was playing in an offense that was on fire its last 7 games.

Wright is a reach, but few doubt his ability to throw 20-30 TD's at a 60% clip for well over 3,000 yards now that he's had a full season under his belt. His problem of course, is that he's playing for a Miami team that looks like it's about to run into an iceberg.

They're both flawed candidates, but Wright's less likely to eliminate himself by putting up pedestrian numbers than Smith.

Anyway, Notre Dame's issues are more with its defensive coordinator than Troy Smith. Ohio State spotted something in your scheme and coverages and exploited it, and your DC's inflexibility let Smith sit back and throw to open targets all day. Most quarterbacks thrive when given that kind of opportunity.

So be careful to call me crazy. I'm just shining some light on some realities here.