Keller or Carpenter?
Friday, March 3, 2006 at 11:02AM There's an interesting writeup about Arizona State's quarterback situation at their Rivals.com website. Senior incumbent Sam Keller is back after a midseason hand injury. Keller started the season on a ridiculous tear, throwing for 1,434 yards, 16 TD and 2 INT through his team's first four games. He then cooled off, but was at over 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns before his injury.
He was replaced by redshirt freshman Rudy Carpenter, who also went on a tear, winning four of five starts, and throwing for 2,273 yards with just a 17-to-2 TD/INT ratio. Carpenter even won ASU's bowl game against Rutgers, throwing for nearly 500 yards and four touchdowns. He finished the season #1 nationally in passing efficiency.
Unfortunately, this dilemma may already be solved, as the article states coach Dirk Koetter has a policy that injured players do not lose their starting jobs. Thus, Keller has been named the spring starter and is expected to hold onto his job into the season. Way to create a competitive atmosphere, coach. I understand loyalty but when a backup emerges as a team leader and competent player, it might be wise to consider a change.
So, what would you do? Personally, I'd hand the job to carpenter. I was enamored with Keller's performance through much of the year, but there were some red flags that he might not be the best fit. I'm sure many of you remember the USC/ASU game. Arizona State nearly ended USC's season before it began, but Keller wilted in the second half, tossing an astounding five interceptions. It was a horrible meltdown and signaled that he may not be a championship-level player. Keller had an exhausted USC team on the ropes and more or less handed the game over before a raucous home crowd. Yikes.
Of more anecdotal value, Keller's a bit of a wild man, running all over the field, making gestures to teammates and opponents, and otherwise showing an interest in the game. I tend to like that in quartebacks, but Keller's a bit over-the-top. He often reminded me of the psychotic Mel Gibson character from an episode of South Park where the kids went to his house to get a refund (they didn't like The Passion of the Christ) and he threw a bizarre tantrum. That kind of performance isn't something to aspire to. There are tolerable levels of excitement and then there's being a lunatic/hothead, and Keller's on field behavior sometimes leans towards the latter.
"Sam Keller's Crazy, Dude"
Additional signs of wildness include his signing with ASU. Keller grew up an intense Michigan fan, his Dad had played there and he'd been offered a scholarship to play. He verbally committed but late in the game changed his mind and ended up at ASU of all places. I'll get on Michigan's case from time-to-time on here, but it's more than a little bizarre for elite players to scorn the Wolverines, a traditional power, for a midlevel Pac-10 team. USC or UCLA? Maybe. But Arizona State? Odd.
For all we know Keller's simply an independent-minded, outspoken renaissance man of sorts. But his personality and performance may also be the devil's brew when he gets into tough situations like what happened against USC. I remain a Keller fan, but compared to his backup, I'd side with the backup.
There's a lot to like about Rudy Carpenter. Without any prior experience, he manged to put up just as impressive of numbers in his early starts as Keller, and without the fanfare and Heisman hype. He has a very powerful arm, and is fairly nimble. He was nearly flawless in an outing on the road against UCLA, throwing for well over 400 yards, and also impressed in the bowl against Rutgers. The bowl game showed me that he has a lot of poise, as he played with a shoulder injury and had to rally his team against an unexpectedly game opponent. It took the ASU defense nearly the entire game to recover from their shock and begin to make plays, but Carpenter had the offense in form much quicker. He showed poise and the guys visibly rallied around him in a stressful setting. Not bad. It didn't hurt that he made a handful of impressive deep throws---not just bombs, but stunning strikes along the sidelines and across the middle of the field to well covered receivers. It was great fun to watch because so few quarterbacks ever attempt let alone connect on several of the types of throws he made.
If there is a critique of Carpenter, it's that he has a funky delivery. I'm not a quarterback guru, but it's obvious that he knows how to make a wide variety of throws and very few of them are being deflected at the line, which is usually a symptom of poor mechanics. If we really want to get picky and snarky, the kid looks like former Florida congressman Joe Scarborough. Not that there's anything wrong with it, only the kid has a famous doppleganger with his own nightly television show on MSNBC.
So in the end, I'm apt to say, go with the younger, more cool-headed but proven Rudy Carpenter. The kid can play.
By the numbers:
- Keller, Sam-8 games: 155/264 (.587) 2165 yards, 20 TD/9 INT, 145.78 efficiency
- Carpenter, Rudy-9 games: 156/228 (.684) 2273 yards, 17 TD/2 INT, 175.01 efficiency
Reader Comments (10)
According to the numbers I saw, Keller played in the first six games, plus some of the Stanford game, and that was it for him. Carpenter got garbage time (and put up good numbers) in a couple of games before becoming the starter after the Stanford game.
Scoring defense of Kellers opponents: 117, 3, 106, 105, 35, 38, 89. average - 70.
Scoring defense of Carpenters opponents: 89, 97, 108, 64, 59. average - 83
My take is that Keller played some really crappy defenses, but also didn't play in all of those games and was the one playing against the best defenses (and putting up some decent numbers, USC meltdown notwithstanding). I think that has to count for something. Its also really tough for a coach to penalize a kid for getting injured.
I think Koetter is doing the right thing by naming a starter at this juncture, be it Keller or Carpenter. ASU does not need a QB controversy to brew over and ruin a potential Holiday Bowl season. Of course, some semblance of controversy would remain no matter what though.
Keller had an issue of forcing way too many balls into Hagan. It'll be interesting to see how he'll change without Hagan. Arguably, he'll become a better passer without Hagan, if he is forced to spread the ball around more.
Also because I think Michigan is the definition of a paper tiger, I don't think he sacrificed too much on the field by spurning Michigan for ASU.
I will say that Michigan's gameday atmosphere is light years ahead that of ASU.
Obviously this is a very one-sided post. Keller did have them on the brink against LSU and USC, both top 10 teams, early in the year (although both were home games).
They're probably quite similar right now in grasp of offense and performance. However, I wanted to call to attention some of those red flags I saw with Keller and also note that I think Carpenter's the better QB of the two, from my own observations.
ASU probably won't be hurt much by going with Keller and maybe he is in fact the better choice. I'd just be a little more hesitant about it, if not in fact openly naming Carpenter the starter. My feelings won't be hurt by any arguments in defense of Keller, he's certainly capable of GREAT football and has had some truly impressive moments (I was very much in his camp early last year) that cannot be ignored.
www.tommytrojanblog.blogspot.com
Keller had to sit and wait his turn behind record setting QB Walter and did. Keller will be the senior player in the upcoming season (who has been in the system longer) while Carpenter will be a sophmore. Keller has paid his dues, and if the talent level is not so far apart, should be given the starting job based on experience (which Keller has more of). Carpenter will be a tremendous starting QB during his junior and senior seasons and should not be unseated when he gets a little banged-up and the "next big deal" comes in and has a few good games.
Keller injured his thumb in the 6th game against Oregon, stayed in, and completed the game. He tried to make a go of it in the 7th game against Stanford, but had to be removed just after halftime. ASU lost both games. Prior to that Keller played against six teams with a combined record of 45-27. The last six games that Carpenter played in were against teams with a combined record of 31-37. Keller went 3-3 in the six games that he played in mostly - while Carpenter was 4-2 in his six games. The Stanford game could be deducted as the defense completely fell apart and would not have been the fault of either QB. Nevertheless, Keller led ASU in tough losses against LSU,USC and Oregon while Carpenter led ASU in a tough loss to UCLA. Of these four teams - UCLA would finish as the weakest of the four. Keller also led ASU in bombings of Northwestern (52-21) and Oregon State (42-24). Carpenter's best win was the Bowl win against a 7-5 Rutgers team that had not attended a Bowl game in about fifty years (45-40). Carpenter's stats were slightly better than Keller's were - but, he played against much inferior competition. When Keller was healthy he has both LSU and USC on the ropes. USC would finish #2 nationally in interceptions also - so, Keller wasn't the only QB that got picked off by them. They had the two best safeties in the country.
Bottom line: ASU looked real tough with Keller at the helm until he got injured in the Oregon game. In the first five games ASU had blasted three opponents and given LSU and USC fits. After he went down, ASU would struggle against Stanford, Wazzou, UCLA, Arizona and Rutgers. The only decisive win for Carpenter was a 44-20 mauling of Washington - the Pac's worst team. Leadership seems to have something to do with all this. ASU seemed to have more confidence as a team with Keller at the controls. Carpenter did a tremendous job coming in as a freshman and taking ASU to four more victories. But, Keller is my starting QB - end of story!
Tommie Psycho Trojan
Keller had to sit and wait his turn behind record setting QB Walter and did. Keller will be the senior player in the upcoming season (who has been in the system longer) while Carpenter will be a sophmore. Keller has paid his dues, and if the talent level is not so far apart, should be given the starting job based on experience (which Keller has more of). Carpenter will be a tremendous starting QB during his junior and senior seasons and should not be unseated when he gets a little banged-up and the "next big deal" comes in and has a few good games.
Keller injured his thumb in the 6th game against Oregon, stayed in, and completed the game. He tried to make a go of it in the 7th game against Stanford, but had to be removed just after halftime. ASU lost both games. Prior to that Keller played against six teams with a combined record of 45-27. The last six games that Carpenter played in were against teams with a combined record of 31-37. Keller went 3-3 in the six games that he played in mostly - while Carpenter was 4-2 in his six games. The Stanford game could be deducted as the defense completely fell apart and would not have been the fault of either QB. Nevertheless, Keller led ASU in tough losses against LSU,USC and Oregon while Carpenter led ASU in a tough loss to UCLA. Of these four teams - UCLA would finish as the weakest of the four. Keller also led ASU in bombings of Northwestern (52-21) and Oregon State (42-24). Carpenter's best win was the Bowl win against a 7-5 Rutgers team that had not attended a Bowl game in about fifty years (45-40). Carpenter's stats were slightly better than Keller's were - but, he played against much inferior competition. When Keller was healthy he has both LSU and USC on the ropes. USC would finish #2 nationally in interceptions also - so, Keller wasn't the only QB that got picked off by them. They had the two best safeties in the country.
Bottom line: ASU looked real tough with Keller at the helm until he got injured in the Oregon game. In the first five games ASU had blasted three opponents and given LSU and USC fits. After he went down, ASU would struggle against Stanford, Wazzou, UCLA, Arizona and Rutgers. The only decisive win for Carpenter was a 44-20 mauling of Washington - the Pac's worst team. Leadership seems to have something to do with all this. ASU seemed to have more confidence as a team with Keller at the controls. Carpenter did a tremendous job coming in as a freshman and taking ASU to four more victories. But, Keller is my starting QB - end of story!
Tommie Psycho Trojan