It's Early, But...

Never too early for a top teams list.

These are my "post-spring, Pre-Steele team rankings"

Relevant, thoughtful criticism is welcomed.  Maybe I'll amend the list in subsequent updates based on intelligent responses.

As always, this list is about the "best" teams.  I'm not looking at schedules and making predictions based on expected outcomes here, merely assessing the overall quality of the teams.  Expected records are important, but not the only measures factored in when doing these rankings.  That's how it should be, anyway.

1. Ohio State---This will simply be the finest offense Jim Tressel has ever gotten ahold of.  There are concerns with a defense returning just three starters, but the Buckeyes are a rugged defensive squad no matter the players and have a handful of "new" starters with legit starting experience coming back from injuries, academic woes, etc.  I've ragged on their slowdown style of late, but this is a roster that can run and dominate on both sides of the ball almost by accident.  Jim Tressel has won a championship and has a great shot at getting his second crown this year.
   
2. USC---The big theme this year is that everyone's flawed.  If that's the case, the always No. 1 or damn close Trojans should be big factors once again.  There isn't a consensus No. 1 team and it's an environment USC stepped into at the start of the 2003 season.  That team also had to replace an entire backfield of veteran stars (Palmer/Fargas/McCullough vs. Leinart/White/Bush) and cruised through the season after some early troubles.  This is the deepest, most athletic USC team in memory.  They lack a star to rally around, but the rest of the roster is young, surprisingly experienced and can fly.  The battered, young defense of 2005 will be great in 2006 if it can stay healthy.
3. Auburn---I was shocked by last year's bowl performance against Wisconsin.  I'll chalk that up to a little lethargy in not making the SEC title game and a bigger bowl and the going-out party for Wisky's coach Barry Alvarez.  Anyway, the Tigers' roster is loaded.  The defense is smallish but can absolutely fly at all spots on the two-deep.  Brandon Cox is a nifty system quarterback and the stable of backs may be America's finest (my apologies to California, Clemson, Georgia and co.).  These tigers have the opportunity to win through versatility, possessing the personnel and schemes to either attack through a frenetic offensive and defensive display or maul foes in slow down ball.  Few teams are so blessed.
4. Texas---Football Jesus is gone.  Christendom's had a frustrating time since His physical presence vacated this lovely planet.  Texas fans will be similarly frustrated now that Vince Young has ditched Austin for the No Fun League.  Don't get me wrong, the 'Horns will remain an impressive team, but the big guy's gone.  The defense won't lose much (Huff and Wright can be replaced---look out for big DT Frank Okam), but the offense will have its moments of paralysis.  Another fine season is in the works, but it just won't be the same.  Think of Texas' many great non-championship seasons under Mack Brown.  The difference of course it that this year's team should beat Oklahoma for the second straight time.
5. Georgia---Much like the President, Georgia coach Mark Richt always pulls a rabbit out of his hat when people misunderestimate him.  I'm not enamored with the Dawgs' backs or the lines and they have yet to fix a leaky run defense... but dammit it doesn't always matter.  These Dawgs are going to go out and beat all but one and possibly two SEC foes big or small.  Freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford is a potential phenom, and towards the end of the year may have this team doing some things on offense Dawg fans have not seen from any quarterback between the hedges.  Last year was a golden opportunity to finish third or fourth in the rankings before injuries got in the way.  Coach Richt probably realizes this and may put together the scrappiest, most competitive UGA squad of his tenure.
6. California---Much of this team's fate rests with settling on a competent quarterback and rebuilding a great offensive line.  The defense replaced nearly every starter last year, which means everyone's back this time around.  That's a luxury for any coach and Cal will take advantage of it.  The offense has some serious star power behind superback Marshawn Lynch, backfield mate Justin Forsett and freaky good receiver DeSean Jackson.  With a balanced team on both sides of the ball, the Bears will challenge USC for Pac-10 surpremacy.
7. Notre Dame---I'm all aboard the Charlie Weis bandwagon.  However, I'm not sure this Notre Dame team is quite ready for prime time.  I realize most everybody returns, but the Fiesta Bowl revealed some holes yet to be fixed.  The Irish choked away scoring opportunities in the harsh BCS light, and a shaky defense watched faster players run circles around them for an entire game.  The Irish have not gotten any faster on defense.  Brady Quinn is an amazing leader, and he'll need to be as the Irish offense will have to carry this team the way USC's offense did last year.  The difference is USC was coming off two championships and had two Heisman winners and LenDale White along with college football's best offensive line to work with.  The Irish have ho-hum Darius Walker and the amazing Jeff Samardzija.  Big difference.  The target will be on this team's back every step of the way.  For a team built with mostly middling recruits, the heavy burdens of national attention every week, talk of an undefeated season and Brady Quinn's Heisman run, it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
   
8. Louisville---Why not West Virginia?  Because this team will have a huge chip on its shoulder.  They let a win against the Mountaineers disappear into an overtime loss as Steve Slaton scored six touchdowns against the Cardinals last year.  All the Big East hype will be directed at the Mountaineers, but Louisville is an equally talented team with a greater breadth of offensive weapons and scheme to attack with.  Quarterback Brian Brohm should be healthy this time around.
9. Miami---"It's Great, To Be, A Miami Hurricane!"  At least, that's what they say.  Who am I to disagree?  After an embarrassing loss to LSU in last year's Peach Bowl, this Miami team will finally have the motivation necessary to kill any lingering lethargy that has overtaken Coral Gables since the Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State in 2002.  A new coaching staff, a rugged defense and a gifted quarterback sounds like the right recipe to get back to the winning ways.  They're not ready for prime time yet, but a return to the top 10 is a good start.
10. West Virginia---The last time West Virginia had this much preseason hype, they flopped.  It happens, but it's especially hard to keep big fish/small pond teams focused over the course of a season when they're the topic of national discussion since January.  Young stars Patrick White (quarterback) and back Steve Slaton should dazzle fans and opponents.  The trick is to consistently win and overcome setbacks for a team with young offensive stars with great expectations.
11. Florida---I realize year two is usually a magic season for Urban Meyer coached teams, but I'm concerned.  Chris Leak really isn't a good fit at quarterback, and it will be hard for the more athletic and fiery Tim Tebow to politically get much legitimate playing time from the former all-everything recruit.  The offensive line is also a huge problem and coach Meyer threatened to bench all the backs and not bother running the ball in a fit earlier in the spring.  Ouch.  That said, the defense should be good to great and the incoming crop of recruits will shake things up on offense because some of them can run and make plays such as national hotshot Percy Harvin.  We may have to be just a bit more patient with the Gators as they continue to fix personnel issues on the offensive side of the ball.
12. Iowa---This team is due.  Quarterback Drew Tate's a winner and so is his coach.  The linebacker replacements for Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway are talented dudes and back Albert Young has finally realized he's a legit D-I player.  There are pieces in place for a run at the Big Ten title if Ohio State or Michigan stumble.
13. Florida State---Fix the offense already!  This is a really talented team, among the more talented Seminole groups in the last 10 years.  Drew Weatherford will overcome his interception issues and the backs are going to be fun to watch.  Last year's offensive line injury bug isn't likely to happen again.  The defense loses several starters to the NFL but fear not, names like Myron Rolle, Lawrence Timmons and Geno Hayes will quickly make Seminole fans forget.  The Seminoles got hot at the tail end of last season, findings ways to win until letting the Penn State game slip away.  To me that's a sign that the players and coaches are all on the same page and are ready for a big run in 2006.
14. Oklahoma---Like Florida, the Sooners also have offensive line issues.  There's a lot of young talent here, but by no means do I see a squad as coherent or as talented as the 2000-2004 Sooners.  Adrian Peterson is an unbelievable back who will win a few games by himself... but he can't win them all.
15. Michigan---The proverbial hot stove team---don't touch or you'll get burned.  I've learned my lesson with the Wolverines.  They'll look great at times, disappointing in others, and go 9-3 ad infinitum.  There's some reason for excitement with some talented young defensive linemen emerging, but Lloyd Carr is still the head coach which means Michigan will let 1-2 wins dissolve into bitter late defeats.

Others:

• Clemson---Can they steal a win or two from Florida State or Miami?  There's some intriguing talent on both sides of the ball and they've done some interesting tinkering with the offense.  Fifth year senior quarterback Will Proctor should play with urgency and exceed the inconsistent output of ballyhooed but underwhelming Charlie Whitehurst.
• Arizona State---Some talented transfers have arrived to help the defensive line.  The offense should be great, and do-it-all Rudy Burgess has shifted to cornerback to help out on D.  Nice.  I see a 700-yard game or two in their future with the bombs-away quarterback hydra of Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter.
• Texas Tech---This is the most talented team yet in Lubbock.  Replacing a quarterback is obviously nothing new to this team so no worries in that department.
• LSU---I'm not taking a lot from the Peach Bowl.  That was a Miami team that had a lot of internal troubles that bubbled to the surface right at kickoff as they melted down on national television.  A fight and several coach firings later, the bowl win seems more an aberration or taking advantage of a wounded foe.  Just saying.  The Tigers need to settle on a quarteback (among JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flyyn) and pray he doesn't cough up the job.  This team can really run but they're more athletic than football savvy in some spots.  If back Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent once again prove inconsistent, keep an eye on frosh backs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams.  They're good... real good.
• TCU---Our first non-BCS mention here.  Gary Patterson's an excellent coach and was able to take out Oklahoma and Iowa State last year.  Not bad.  The Horned Frogs don't do anything fancy, but play smart, tough football, get turnovers and gut out the close ones.  They should factor in here somewhere yet again.

Traditional Powers On The Outs:

Penn State, Nebraska, Alabama

Comments

[Nico]

2005 may have been Shula's lone miracle (though I certainly hope that's not the case.) We're still reeling a bit from the sanctions so I'm willing to give the team a pass for one more year if the season is less than stellar. if they win less than 8 games, people are going to be super pissed. 2007 is the year Alabama fans will be getting an itchy trigger finger to fire Shula if they don't see a victory over Auburn (and one to LSU for that matter.)

[Shawny]

USC at 2 is deserving. Casual fans might doubt the likes of JD Booty, Chauncey Washington, and the 3 new O-Linemen, but they were all hot-shot recruits who waited patiently for their moments. The linebacker group is solid even into the THIRD TEAM and the DBs are quick. If the D-Line holds up, SC could go undefeated (the schedule is favorable, too, with Oregon, Cal, and ND at home towards the end, giving the new starters time to get comfy).

[CFR]

A measured response from BON---

http://www.burntorangenation.com/story/2006/6/6/1385/92805

Keep in mind I went into this not so much with schedule in mind (that is, the expected outcome of the Texas/OSU game doesn't necessarily reflect my view of them) but relative strength, how good a team is.

I don't have USC at #2 because I feel they'll beat Notre Dame (they may very well lose that game) but because based on how I look at things, I think they're the 2nd best team out there at this very early point in time. As expressed on here many times, slotting by record is a bad practice and I avoid it in favor of observation.

Finally, my Texas analysis isn't based on Chip Brown's analysis. I do my own homework on here, as much as I'm accused of being all kinds of Western or USC or even Boise State homer, I pay attention to everyone and do my homework. This is about college football, after all.

I actually mentioned Frank Okam in a post several days before Brown mentioned his excitement about the kid. I saw him all last year and knew him from following recruiting and understood it was a sham he was behind Rodrique Wright. My own eyes could tell me that without ever having read Chip Brown.

Anyway... good review, Peter. Sorry to sound surly, just wanted to clarify things and repeat some of the usual rhetoric.

[Dawgy1]

CFR, not bad, I like it! LSU will be a team no one wants to play. Talent everywhere.

[Peter Bean]

I guess it sounded like I was saying you were mimicking Chip Brown; I merely intended to point out the overlap of opinion.

[Pat]

Chiming in for ND fans, I agree with most of what you wrote about the Irish. Two quibbles though. The first is about the defense. I don't know if it will be better, but it will indeed be faster. The two graduating linebackers (Hoyte and Mays) were great against the run, but weaker against the pass. Their replacements are faster players, although that doesn't mean they will be better. I also think that in the 2nd year of the new defensive scheme the players will have a better idea of where to be, which always makes a defense "look" faster.

Also, Samardzija will be aided by the return from injury of Rhema McKnight, who was ahead of Samardzija on the depth chart until he hurt his knee in the Michigan game. So basically ND will again have two strong receivers for opposing defenses to deal with.

Still, I agree that it will be hard for ND to run the table this year.

[GK]

Iowa's RB is Albert Young, not Albert Means.

[CFR]

Good catch, thanks.

[Adam]

Looking through the various Preseason Publications (Athlon, Sporting News, etc...) it is apparent that there isn't any source of consensus on the Top 10, much less the Top 25. I've seen Arizona State, for example, as high as the Top 10 and FSU as 4 or 5 (ESPN.com IIRC).

Totally agree with ND, this team is just not at that level yet (but with the recruits Weis is bringing in it won't be long) and I think OSU is as good as any of those teams to take at 1 this early in the game.

Can't wait to see what you got in store once Phil Steele's comes out.

[HP]

One thing I like about this site is that you put your opinion out there and let the chips fly. That's what blogs are about--opinions.

Other blogs seem to spend most of their time commenting on what others are saying--usually in the negative--instead of coming up with their own stuff.

What will happen if blogs like this stop putting new content out? What will they comment about then? Will they deign to put out their own rankings?

[Kanu]

CFR- Please do not ever compare Richt to GWB again. Ever. For one, Richt is competent and does his job well. When he has a 5 year period of nothing other than utter ineptitude then you can compare all you like. Thanks.

[Dawg 05]

I think you underestimate LSU. Their will be no QB controversy come August, J. Russell is too good not to start. I'm gonna go ahead and throw out that LSU wins the West, if not the SEC. They won't go undefeated, much like 2003. And I hope that you are dead on about Stafford, but me thinks Joe T. will hold the starting job for the Dawgs all season.

[Nebraska is a top 10 team]

you forgot to rank the Huskers as I and most of America think they should be.When they beat USC (and they will) ,Oklahoma will decide wether or not they play for the title.

[Higg]

You, my friend, are out of your little mind if you think for a second that Oklahoma isn't in the top 5 this year. In most of the post spring rankings among analysts and writers, they are in the top three, among Ohio State and Notre Dame. Not only will they win the Big XII Championship, but they're defense will put an end to Texas's one year reign as Big XII Champs. I look for them to be National Title contenders, with arguably the best defense in America this year.

[CFR]

These rankings are similar to power rankings. They're an evaluation of relative strength, not how a team is expected to finish in the polls.

We'll know soon enough in about 80+ days what everyone can do.