CFR's Top Teams List: Week Fourteen

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Florida
4. USC
5. Louisville
6. LSU
7. Arkansas
8. West Virginia
9. Oklahoma
10. California
11. Texas
12. Notre Dame
13. Tennessee
14. Wisconsin
15. Rutgers

Lurking
Auburn, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Notes

There you have it.  Well, at least for the regular season.

USC's offensive philosophy issues finally came home to roost, clearing the way for Florida's ascent into the BCS title game.  Everyone else who played this weekend held ground.

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Thirteen

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Louisville
6. LSU
   
7. Arkansas
   
8. West Virginia
9. California
   
10. Oklahoma
    
11. Texas
12. Notre Dame
13. Tennessee
14. Wisconsin
15. Rutgers

Lurking
Auburn, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Notes

These rankings get a bit more difficult at the end here as most good teams begin to lose the inevitable second or third game.  I'm trying to hit a moving target in doing this, assessing how good each team is at this moment.

For example I'm confident in where I've put Notre Dame and Texas.  The Longhorns are a borderline 10-15 team and have been all year.  They've improved under Colt McCoy but that's been balanced with his various injuries and having played either a motivated team like Kansas State or a hot rival team like Texas A&M.

Rutgers was soaring a few weeks ago but the natural state of things for a smaller program is to outplay themselves and then crash a little.  I'm sneaking them into the back of the top 15, which is where they will probably settle into for the rest of the season.

Sometimes I'm making a correction, or re-thinking a team.  I was tempted to move Oklahoma way up, but I'll wait another week, watch them a little more before giving them that boost or sitting at No. 10 or so.

I'm tempted to move USC to No. 2, but I'd like to see one more game out of them.  But right now it appears they've righted the ship the way they did in 2002 and 2003, if not to the same great level.  However, that's balanced out by a weak field of competition at the upper levels of college football this year.

Finally I'm a bit nervous for Florida, as they're sputtering to the finish line here and now their coach has gone Tuberville/Beamer on us which bodes poorly for next weekend or their bowl game.  As always, it's better to let everyone play it out before you lay it out. 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Twelve

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Arkansas
4. USC
5. Florida
6. Louisville
7. West Virginia
8. California
9. LSU
10. Rutgers
11. Texas
12. Notre Dame
13. Oklahoma
14. Tennessee
15. Wisconsin

Lurking
Boise State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Auburn, Nebraska, Virginia Tech

Week Twelve Rankings

Somewhat belated...

• BCS
• USA Today/Coaches
• Harris Interactive

• Associated Press (+ Actual Ballots)
  
• Master Coaches Survey

• College Football Resource
• Heisman Pundit
• Blog Poll

• Jeff Sagarin

***
You can find these and many more rankings conveniently indexed for quick access at College Football Resource.  Simply click on 'College Football Links' on the menu at left under the heading 'Sections' to browse for the rankings and many other categories of links housed here.

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Eleven

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Florida
4. Arkansas
5. California
6. USC
7. Louisville
8. Rutgers
9. LSU
10. West Virginia
11. Texas
12. Notre Dame
13. Oklahoma
14. Tennessee
    
15. Wisconsin
    

Lurking
Wake Forest, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Auburn

Thoughts

Ranking teams two through six is incredibly difficult.  I'm still a little torn on whether Florida or Arkansas is the superior ball club.  I feel California's better than USC, but we'll get a better view of that next weekend.  USC beat Arkansas but that was ages ago and the Trojans just look a little more flawed than the 'Hogs right now.

I've kept Louisville ahead of Rutgers because without that setting, without an unbelievable second-half defensive effort, without the whole magic of the evening Louisville's probably the better team by a fraction.

I almost dropped Auburn severely in the rankings last week, and this weekend proved that I should have pulled the trigger on that.

Finally...

Two weekends ago someone lectured me about not having Boston College in my rankings, then the Eagles lost ugly to Wake Forest.  Last weekend I was lectured about not having Texas further up in the rankings, and then they went out and lost to Kansas State.  Sometimes I have a decent read on these teams, guys, you just have to wait the season out.

They are who we thought they were! 

I'm wrong sometimes, and tend to adjust accordingly.  But sometimes the conventional wisdom and the excitement of the weekend are also wrong.

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Ten

1. Ohio State---Illinois?
2. Michigan---Ball State?
   
3. California---Thomas DeCoud
   
4. Florida---Vanderbilt?
5. Tennessee---Oops
6. Louisville---Happy day
   
7. West Virginia---Sad day
   
8. Auburn---Quiet day
   
9. USC---Rough Stretch, eh?
   
10. Texas---Colt .45
    
11. LSU---Yay
12. Arkansas---Good enough
    
13. Notre Dame---Defense?
14. Rutgers---Bye
15. Oklahoma---Gutsy

Lurking
Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Boise State 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Nine

As always, these are power rankings.

1. Ohio State---Cruise control
2. Michigan---Laying low
3. West Virginia---Can almost smell the desert air
4. Tennessee---Choppy
5. California---Three weeks to USC
6. Florida---Choppy
7. Auburn---Choppy
8. USC---Had 'em pegged
9. Notre Dame---Found a third receiver
10. Texas---Had 'em pegged
11. Louisville---Still undefeated
12. Arkansas---Fire Coach Nutt!!! Er...
13. Clemson---Being in the top 10 too much to handle
14. LSU---Lurking
15. Wisconsin---Choppy

Lurking
Rutgers, Oklahoma, Boise State, Texas A&M 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Eight

As always, this is a power ranking.

1. Ohio State---Snapped Indiana back to reality
   
2. Michigan---Gritted out a few tough ones with a superb defense
   
3. West Virginia---One trick pony but it's a hell of a trick
   
4. Tennessee---Will be hurting without LaMarcus Coker
   
5. California---Marshawn Lynch came to play
   
6. Florida---Hangin' around
   
7. Auburn---Hangin' around
8. USC---Hangin' around
   
9. Clemson---Spillermania.  James Davis ain't bad, either
   
10. Louisville---Offense is beginning to bog down at times, but the defense has been solid.
    
11. Arkansas---Surging of late.
    
12. Texas---Verrrry fortunate Nebraska fumbled the ball in its own zone
    
13. Notre Dame---I'd give the Irish credit for the comeback, but really it's just UCLA being UCLA
    
14. LSU---Can't beat the opponents that matter
    
15. Wisconsin---Have found an offense to match their defense
    

Lurking
Rutgers, Boise State, Missouri 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Seven

As always, this is a power ranking.

1. Ohio State---Biding their time until Michigan.
2. Michigan---See above.  They'll just do it without Mario Manningham.
3. West Virginia---Tentatively here.  Awesome rushing performance against Syracuse on Saturday.
4. Tennessee---Probably the most motivated team out there.
5. California---Nearly blanked Wazzou in their own house.
6. Florida---Disappointing weekend.
7. Auburn---Home field advantage... not so much two weekends ago (Arkansas).  So much more last weekend.
8. USC---At least they finally looked somewhat creative on offense.  Anyone catch that fullback wheel route that went for a touchdown?
9. Louisville---Brohm's back!  He looked rusty, though.
10. Texas---Baylor shouldn't have run pregame smack like they did.
11. Notre Dame---Bye week over, second half of season begins Saturday.
12. LSU---Averaging 6.5 points in games against opponents that matter, 47 in all other games.  Welcome to the wacky world of Les Miles.
13. Clemson---Broke 60 points for the first time this season on Thursday, flogging hapless Temple 63-9.
14. Oregon---UCLA Defensive Coordinator DeWayne Walker admits he was "outschemed" by the Ducks.
15. Georgia Tech---Enjoyed their bye week.  Big game on Saturday against Clemson

Lurking
Arkansas, Boise State, Rutgers, Missouri 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Six

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan---Narrowly holding the spot here over...
3. Florida---Imagine if they can start to squeeze even more out of Tebow and Harvin?
4. West Virginia---The first real gap here
5. Tennessee---Only three four teams have put 50+ points up against the Dawgs since 1945.  Tennessee's one of them
6. California---Surging
7. USC---Falling
8. Louisville---Plateau-ing
9. Texas---Corn Dogging
10. Notre Dame---Winning
11. Auburn---Wondering
12. LSU---Frustrating
13. Clemson---C.J. Spiller
14. Oregon---Quack
15. Oklahoma---Seen better days
    

Lurking

Georgia Tech, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Five

1. Ohio State---I anticipated a healthy win against Iowa and the Buckeyes delivered.  As reward, they've solified and consolidated their No. 1 ranking
2. Michigan---I hope they Wolverines don't burn me with this one.  They're playing loose and are excellent on both sides of the ball
3. Auburn---South Carolina switched to the mobile Syvelle Newton which threw the Auburn defense off, but their offense responded by playing keepaway and literally holding the ball the entire third quarter
4. USC---Survived raucous Pullman.  Actually held a 28-15 lead late but relaxed too soon and let the Cougars back into the game
5. Florida---Stifling defense once again saved the day and got their revenge against Alabama.  Who knew Chris Leak could run for 45 yards?
6. Louisville---Upon reflection I'm a little less high on them at the moment.  Ahhh those crazy bye weeks
7. LSU---Beat up on poor Mississippi State.  Have found a way to consistently work Early Doucet into the offense, now have a nice receiver troika with Davis and Bowe
8. Oregon---Winning with authority and bottled up a good ASU offense
9. West Virginia---The Slaton and White Show had a bye week
   
10. Texas---Just look down a notch this year, masked by a bunch of games against nobodies
11. Notre Dame---They're still a good football team...
12. Tennessee---A notch below the SEC's Big Three
13. California---Could have tanked after week one but didn't
14. Clemson---Play defense, run the ball and score touchdowns unabated.  Sounds good to me
    
15. Oklahoma---Scrappy, talented, but simply not elite

Lurking

Georgia, Georgia Tech, Missouri, Iowa 

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Four

I'm breaking with policy of waiting until later in the week and letting things "marinate" with a little more review.

I reserve the right to re-evaluate between now and Saturday but probably won't announce any such changes but know that unlike the polls that are released so quickly on Sunday and frozen in time without much reflection I will continue to reflect upon things throughout the week.

Anyway, as always I caution these are power rankings, not the product of haphazard slotting by losses, conference strength or reputation, etc.

1. Ohio State---Listless at home against Penn State.  But so were many other contenders, so hard to knock them here particularly in their conference opener.  Secondary made plays---and scores---late.
2. Florida---Very tentatively here.  Run defense is outstanding, and Kentucky helped them by not bothering to run the ball.  Chris Leak is Chris Leak, but so far he's responded to Tim Tebow's challenge and put together a fine start to his season.
3. USC---Something was amiss against Arizona and it's hard to exactly pin down what it was.  Frosh Emmanuel Moody is emerging as a special back and the defense is winning games for this team.  They kind of have that 2004 feel with the superb defense and talented but inexperienced offense.
4. Auburn---A bit listless against Buffalo, but hard to blame them.  Didn't play a handful of critical starters but they should all be ready for next week.  Rush offense not as potent and consistent as last year despite tremendous depth with Brad Lester and Ben Tate.
5. Texas---Survived Iowa State's early charge then romped.  Quality conference win if Iowa State continues to play well.
6. Louisville---Did what they had to survive in a tough venue.  Opening drive was a work of art but otherwise looked very average on offense against Kansas State.
7. Michigan---They might just be for real this time, but until they show again and again they're not Bad Michigan, I'll wait just a bit.  I love their defense so far, although there are some weaknesses that may eventually be exploited.  But in the meantime opponents are having enough trouble just handling Michigan's defensive line and pressure.
8. LSU---Still marching through cupcake lane.  No quarterback controversy so far...check back in a few weeks.  BTW frosh back Charles Scott could be a great one.
9. West Virginia---Struggled a bit against East Carolina.  Noticing a theme for top 10 teams this week?
10. Oregon---BYE
11. Notre Dame---Rough two weeks, and were more than a bit lucky to escape in the muck that was East Lansing on Saturday night.  However a solid second half bodes well especially with the upcoming softening of the schedule.
12. Oklahoma---Took out their frustrations on Middle Tennessee State 59-0.  Adrian Peterson was held in relative check, however.  Score one for the Blue Raider run defense.
13. Clemson---Put on quite a show against North Carolina, scoring seven rush touchdowns and otherwise cruising to a fine conference victory.
14. Georgia---Yeah... they'll get better, but Colorado showed that, in fact, the Georgia defense isn't impenetrable.  The question is where do the Dawgs go from here?  More shaky, narrow victories or do they take some shots at doing something with their offense and plugging whatever leaks sprung against the Buffalo offense?
15. TCU---BYE

Lurking

Iowa, Tennessee, California

CFR's Top Teams List: Week Three

Travel got in the way of week two's rankings and I was a little unsure of adding these.

Next week the rankings will definitely be here. 

Things are still very fluid so don't lose your mind.

As always, this is a power ranking, not a predictor, not based on some contextless 'so and so is 3-0, so and so is 2-1, 3-0>2-1' nonsense.

1. Ohio State---Taking care of business.  Quarterback is king in college football and the Buckeyes probably have the best one out there.
2. USC---Injury-riddled but still find ways to dominate.
3. Florida---Hopefully their early play isn't a mirage, like last year.
4. Auburn---Winning even with two average games from Kenny Irons.
5. Texas---Now completely under the radar.
6. Louisville---Impressive what they've done despite the injuries to Bush and now Brohm.
7. Michigan---Please, please don't burn me here.
8. West Virginia---Hard to tell much against such mismatched foes, but it's a testament to the program that they do away with these teams instead of giving us reason to doubt them.
9. Notre Dame---They'll be back
10. LSU---The pieces are there, the offensive fortitude isn't.
    
11. Georgia---I'm still in wait and see mode with this team.
12. Oregon---Scrappy on defense, dominant on offense.
13. Oklahoma---Got jobbed last week.  Peterson is the engine that makes that team run.
14. Clemson---I could put any of ten or so teams here, but at least they put Florida State away.
15. TCU---It isn't fancy, but the Horned Frogs usually get it done.  The small-school version of say, Georgia.

Others

Iowa, Tennessee, Boston College, California

CFR's Top Teams List: Week One

As always, this is a power ranking, not a predictor.

Additionally, it's based on one week of play and things will be pretty fluid until several weeks into the season.

1. Ohio State---Not the world's strongest No. 1 ever, but put together a masterful first quarter against NIU before cruising.  Troy Smith performed at a very high level for a first week of play.
2. USC---A nearly flawless opening performance on the road against a motivated opponent.  Forced five turnovers, ran the ball.  New quarterback John David Booty is eerily accurate.  Can stumble somewhere, but wow.
3. Auburn---Wazzou hung tight for a while but Auburn blew past them with a steady dosage of Kenny Irons.  Lots of new faces on defense deserve monitoring.  Great fake punt call.
4. Notre Dame---Survived a scare behind a gutty quarterback and good defensive play.  That offense won't stay bottled up forever.  Winning on a day they didn't have it shows moxie.
5. Texas---Colt McCoy did what was needed and played relaxed in a softball tune-up against North Texas in a tune-up for the Ohio State game this weekend.
6. Florida---The Gators were bogged down for a while but battled out of that and unleashed freshman phenom Percy Harvin into the world.
7. Louisville---Michael Bush is gone but they played like they didn't need him, running crazy well after his injury.  Gave up some huge plays to Kentucky, mostly to Keenan Burton who looks like a hell of a playmaker for the Wildcats.
8. Oklahoma---Red zone turnovers did in what was a fairly productive offense.  The defense missed a lot of tackles, which is troubling but given Oklahoma's propensity for defense I'll chalk that up to having an off night.  No other team has Adrian Peterson, and Oklahoma let UAB know about it by riding him to victory in the second half.
9. West Virginia---Had an easy time against in-state rival Marshall, with Steve Slaton rushing for over 200 yards.
10. Georgia---The offense was pathetic, the third similar performance in as many efforts under quarterback Joe Tereshinski.  Hard to tell much else given the nature of the opponent.
11. Michigan---The offense will have to win with the run because Chad Henne is one shaky dude at QB.  The defense looked excellent with its more aggressive approach.  LaMarr Woodley was a sack machine, teaming with Shawn Crable as a terrible TFL twosome.
12. Clemson---Will now play without star linebacker Anthony Waters.  Offense caught fire after a slow start and should be among the best in school history.  Hard to tell much else given that the opponent was Florida Atlantic.
13. Alabama---Showed off a new passing game against game Hawai'i.  Relaxed a bit after a lead to let the Warriors back into the game.  Not their best effort but there are many more games to the season.  Notable: star back Kenneth Darby was held in check, running for just 19 yards on 14 carries.
14. LSU---Cruised against a cupcake.  Highly touted frosh backs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams both logged a few carries, with Scott ripping off the Tigers' longest run of the day, a 19-yarder.
15. Oregon---Throttled Stanford.  Dennis Dixon is a great fit for that offense and they can sub in the erratic but accurate Brady Leaf when they need more of a pocket presence.  Johnathan Stewart is among the nation's top backs and had a huge game running and on returns.  Defense held a good offense to 10 points.

Lurking

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Fresno State, UCLA, Arizona State, Nebraska, TCU, California, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Iowa 

Revised Top Teams List: July

Please note that this list is sort of a power ranking to answer not "where will X team finish/be ranked at the end of the year?" but rather "how good is team X?"

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Auburn
4. Notre Dame (+3)
5. Texas (-1)
6. California
7. Miami (+2)
8. Georgia (-3)
9. Louisville (-1)
10. Oklahoma (+4)
11. Florida
12. West Virginia (-2)
13. Iowa (-1)
14. Michigan (+1)
15. Arizona State (NEW)

Others In Consideration:

Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, Arkansas, Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech, Utah, TCU

I felt I should update this as my previous preseason rankings were last updated on the 5^th of June.

The most surprising change may be Oklahoma's bump from 14th to 10th despite the dismissal of starting quarterback Rhett Bomar.  The more I think about the Sooners, the more I like what they'll do this year: play great defense (talented overall unit) and utilize an even more athletic quarterback in Paul Thompson who has some running ability.  He will be throwing to an excellent sophomore go-to receiver in Malcolm Kelly and the great Adrian Peterson as always will carry much of the offensive burden.  I hunch Oklahoma will heavily shift to an offense where the quarterback is a constant run threat which should give them a little more offensive identity and hopefully points.  The offensive line is definitely shaky and Thompson could gag at this opportunity much as he did last year, but I'm a bit more bullish on their prospects than before.

I've bumped Florida State from the top 15 after having an interesting conversation about the FSU/Miami game with a friend who is very knowledgeable about Florida recruiting and has some contacts around both programs.  By his estimate Miami is a much more talented team and despite all their offseason woes should be quite good.  The Seminoles remain a talented and competitive team, but aren't as talented as one would presume.  Both the defensive and offensive lines are looking a little sad compared to recent Seminole teams and that should be a worry.

Finally, keep an eye out for Alabama.  The prevailing logic is that with the graduation of some defensive standouts and quarterback Brodie Croyle from what was already a sub-par offense, they should decline this year.  However, I'm taking a flier on new quarterback John Parker Wilson who played in a high-octane offense in high school and who should be a fresh face for the offense to rally around.  He has two quality receivers to throw to in D.J. Hall and Keith Brown, a more veteran offensive line and what should be a fine set of backs including Kenneth Darby and the talented Jimmy Johns, a converted quarterback.  The secondary remains talented and up the middle defensively Alabama has a pair of 300-pound seniors who should quietly clog things up inside. 

***
Previous:

• It's Early, But... 

Somebody Must Have Listened

Because College Football News recently published a preseason top 119 teams list based not on expected finish, but "how good" each team is.

Bravo.

See here.

There's one very important distinction in the CFN preseason rankings: these are based on how good the teams are going into the season and NOT how they're going to finish. Some teams have easier schedules than others, some get tougher road games and some will need a little bit of time to jell meaning they might be better than their final record might indicate. Going into the year, these are how good the teams appear to be from No. 1 through 119

Remember my discussion quite recently with BON?  Well CFN's taking a stab at trying it my way, even if it's just for the preseason.  This is a good turn, whether you agree with my method or not.  Something's not quite right with annual poll results and we should be seeking different ways to improve them.

It's Early, But...

Never too early for a top teams list.

These are my "post-spring, Pre-Steele team rankings"

Relevant, thoughtful criticism is welcomed.  Maybe I'll amend the list in subsequent updates based on intelligent responses.

As always, this list is about the "best" teams.  I'm not looking at schedules and making predictions based on expected outcomes here, merely assessing the overall quality of the teams.  Expected records are important, but not the only measures factored in when doing these rankings.  That's how it should be, anyway.

1. Ohio State---This will simply be the finest offense Jim Tressel has ever gotten ahold of.  There are concerns with a defense returning just three starters, but the Buckeyes are a rugged defensive squad no matter the players and have a handful of "new" starters with legit starting experience coming back from injuries, academic woes, etc.  I've ragged on their slowdown style of late, but this is a roster that can run and dominate on both sides of the ball almost by accident.  Jim Tressel has won a championship and has a great shot at getting his second crown this year.
   
2. USC---The big theme this year is that everyone's flawed.  If that's the case, the always No. 1 or damn close Trojans should be big factors once again.  There isn't a consensus No. 1 team and it's an environment USC stepped into at the start of the 2003 season.  That team also had to replace an entire backfield of veteran stars (Palmer/Fargas/McCullough vs. Leinart/White/Bush) and cruised through the season after some early troubles.  This is the deepest, most athletic USC team in memory.  They lack a star to rally around, but the rest of the roster is young, surprisingly experienced and can fly.  The battered, young defense of 2005 will be great in 2006 if it can stay healthy.
3. Auburn---I was shocked by last year's bowl performance against Wisconsin.  I'll chalk that up to a little lethargy in not making the SEC title game and a bigger bowl and the going-out party for Wisky's coach Barry Alvarez.  Anyway, the Tigers' roster is loaded.  The defense is smallish but can absolutely fly at all spots on the two-deep.  Brandon Cox is a nifty system quarterback and the stable of backs may be America's finest (my apologies to California, Clemson, Georgia and co.).  These tigers have the opportunity to win through versatility, possessing the personnel and schemes to either attack through a frenetic offensive and defensive display or maul foes in slow down ball.  Few teams are so blessed.
4. Texas---Football Jesus is gone.  Christendom's had a frustrating time since His physical presence vacated this lovely planet.  Texas fans will be similarly frustrated now that Vince Young has ditched Austin for the No Fun League.  Don't get me wrong, the 'Horns will remain an impressive team, but the big guy's gone.  The defense won't lose much (Huff and Wright can be replaced---look out for big DT Frank Okam), but the offense will have its moments of paralysis.  Another fine season is in the works, but it just won't be the same.  Think of Texas' many great non-championship seasons under Mack Brown.  The difference of course it that this year's team should beat Oklahoma for the second straight time.
5. Georgia---Much like the President, Georgia coach Mark Richt always pulls a rabbit out of his hat when people misunderestimate him.  I'm not enamored with the Dawgs' backs or the lines and they have yet to fix a leaky run defense... but dammit it doesn't always matter.  These Dawgs are going to go out and beat all but one and possibly two SEC foes big or small.  Freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford is a potential phenom, and towards the end of the year may have this team doing some things on offense Dawg fans have not seen from any quarterback between the hedges.  Last year was a golden opportunity to finish third or fourth in the rankings before injuries got in the way.  Coach Richt probably realizes this and may put together the scrappiest, most competitive UGA squad of his tenure.
6. California---Much of this team's fate rests with settling on a competent quarterback and rebuilding a great offensive line.  The defense replaced nearly every starter last year, which means everyone's back this time around.  That's a luxury for any coach and Cal will take advantage of it.  The offense has some serious star power behind superback Marshawn Lynch, backfield mate Justin Forsett and freaky good receiver DeSean Jackson.  With a balanced team on both sides of the ball, the Bears will challenge USC for Pac-10 surpremacy.
7. Notre Dame---I'm all aboard the Charlie Weis bandwagon.  However, I'm not sure this Notre Dame team is quite ready for prime time.  I realize most everybody returns, but the Fiesta Bowl revealed some holes yet to be fixed.  The Irish choked away scoring opportunities in the harsh BCS light, and a shaky defense watched faster players run circles around them for an entire game.  The Irish have not gotten any faster on defense.  Brady Quinn is an amazing leader, and he'll need to be as the Irish offense will have to carry this team the way USC's offense did last year.  The difference is USC was coming off two championships and had two Heisman winners and LenDale White along with college football's best offensive line to work with.  The Irish have ho-hum Darius Walker and the amazing Jeff Samardzija.  Big difference.  The target will be on this team's back every step of the way.  For a team built with mostly middling recruits, the heavy burdens of national attention every week, talk of an undefeated season and Brady Quinn's Heisman run, it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
   
8. Louisville---Why not West Virginia?  Because this team will have a huge chip on its shoulder.  They let a win against the Mountaineers disappear into an overtime loss as Steve Slaton scored six touchdowns against the Cardinals last year.  All the Big East hype will be directed at the Mountaineers, but Louisville is an equally talented team with a greater breadth of offensive weapons and scheme to attack with.  Quarterback Brian Brohm should be healthy this time around.
9. Miami---"It's Great, To Be, A Miami Hurricane!"  At least, that's what they say.  Who am I to disagree?  After an embarrassing loss to LSU in last year's Peach Bowl, this Miami team will finally have the motivation necessary to kill any lingering lethargy that has overtaken Coral Gables since the Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State in 2002.  A new coaching staff, a rugged defense and a gifted quarterback sounds like the right recipe to get back to the winning ways.  They're not ready for prime time yet, but a return to the top 10 is a good start.
10. West Virginia---The last time West Virginia had this much preseason hype, they flopped.  It happens, but it's especially hard to keep big fish/small pond teams focused over the course of a season when they're the topic of national discussion since January.  Young stars Patrick White (quarterback) and back Steve Slaton should dazzle fans and opponents.  The trick is to consistently win and overcome setbacks for a team with young offensive stars with great expectations.
11. Florida---I realize year two is usually a magic season for Urban Meyer coached teams, but I'm concerned.  Chris Leak really isn't a good fit at quarterback, and it will be hard for the more athletic and fiery Tim Tebow to politically get much legitimate playing time from the former all-everything recruit.  The offensive line is also a huge problem and coach Meyer threatened to bench all the backs and not bother running the ball in a fit earlier in the spring.  Ouch.  That said, the defense should be good to great and the incoming crop of recruits will shake things up on offense because some of them can run and make plays such as national hotshot Percy Harvin.  We may have to be just a bit more patient with the Gators as they continue to fix personnel issues on the offensive side of the ball.
12. Iowa---This team is due.  Quarterback Drew Tate's a winner and so is his coach.  The linebacker replacements for Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway are talented dudes and back Albert Young has finally realized he's a legit D-I player.  There are pieces in place for a run at the Big Ten title if Ohio State or Michigan stumble.
13. Florida State---Fix the offense already!  This is a really talented team, among the more talented Seminole groups in the last 10 years.  Drew Weatherford will overcome his interception issues and the backs are going to be fun to watch.  Last year's offensive line injury bug isn't likely to happen again.  The defense loses several starters to the NFL but fear not, names like Myron Rolle, Lawrence Timmons and Geno Hayes will quickly make Seminole fans forget.  The Seminoles got hot at the tail end of last season, findings ways to win until letting the Penn State game slip away.  To me that's a sign that the players and coaches are all on the same page and are ready for a big run in 2006.
14. Oklahoma---Like Florida, the Sooners also have offensive line issues.  There's a lot of young talent here, but by no means do I see a squad as coherent or as talented as the 2000-2004 Sooners.  Adrian Peterson is an unbelievable back who will win a few games by himself... but he can't win them all.
15. Michigan---The proverbial hot stove team---don't touch or you'll get burned.  I've learned my lesson with the Wolverines.  They'll look great at times, disappointing in others, and go 9-3 ad infinitum.  There's some reason for excitement with some talented young defensive linemen emerging, but Lloyd Carr is still the head coach which means Michigan will let 1-2 wins dissolve into bitter late defeats.

Others:

• Clemson---Can they steal a win or two from Florida State or Miami?  There's some intriguing talent on both sides of the ball and they've done some interesting tinkering with the offense.  Fifth year senior quarterback Will Proctor should play with urgency and exceed the inconsistent output of ballyhooed but underwhelming Charlie Whitehurst.
• Arizona State---Some talented transfers have arrived to help the defensive line.  The offense should be great, and do-it-all Rudy Burgess has shifted to cornerback to help out on D.  Nice.  I see a 700-yard game or two in their future with the bombs-away quarterback hydra of Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter.
• Texas Tech---This is the most talented team yet in Lubbock.  Replacing a quarterback is obviously nothing new to this team so no worries in that department.
• LSU---I'm not taking a lot from the Peach Bowl.  That was a Miami team that had a lot of internal troubles that bubbled to the surface right at kickoff as they melted down on national television.  A fight and several coach firings later, the bowl win seems more an aberration or taking advantage of a wounded foe.  Just saying.  The Tigers need to settle on a quarteback (among JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flyyn) and pray he doesn't cough up the job.  This team can really run but they're more athletic than football savvy in some spots.  If back Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent once again prove inconsistent, keep an eye on frosh backs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams.  They're good... real good.
• TCU---Our first non-BCS mention here.  Gary Patterson's an excellent coach and was able to take out Oklahoma and Iowa State last year.  Not bad.  The Horned Frogs don't do anything fancy, but play smart, tough football, get turnovers and gut out the close ones.  They should factor in here somewhere yet again.

Traditional Powers On The Outs:

Penn State, Nebraska, Alabama

That's Nice, How About an Encore?

Some early 2006 thoughts on the teams making CFR's final 2005 rankings:

1. Texas-It took the program what, 35 years to reclaim a title?  It's ridiculously unlikely they'll repeat without Vince Young back there, but I wouldn't be so quick to write them off.  That said, they're 1)fat and happy after finally winning a title and 2)headless, until a new quarterback is found.  Aside from hotshot frosh Jevan Snead, the replacements look like filler.  Fillers---Marcus Autzen, Chance Mock---don't win titles.
2. USC-They're not going anywhere.  However, they desperately need to settle on a quarterback and let him make his mistakes early.  The formula worked well for Matt Leinart in 2003 and he was fine after his sixth start, losing just once more his entire career.  Junior John David Booty and freshman Mark Sanchez are the candidates, and both are former #1 recruits.  USC's defense should settle itself now that the kids are a little more grown up and hopefully past an ugly year of debilitating injuries.  That said, their defensive interior remains a question mark.  Hmm...
3. Ohio State-The early buzz leader for 2006 title contenders.  Problem is, all but 3 defensive starters are gone.  You know who had the same problem last year?  USC.  That catches up with you at some point, USC just happens to be good enough to get within :19 of defying the odds.  Don't count on Ohio State being as lucky or good.  However, the offense was surging in the second half last year and Troy Smith is now firmly entrenched as the starter.  Good times.  I had my doubts about Antonio Pittman early last year but he's emerged as a great fit for that offense.  He won't blow anyone away but he's durable, can catch the ball, and move the pile.  Freshman Chris Wells should become a powerful compliment as the season unfolds.
4. Penn State-They're baaaack.  Penn State finally played like itself last year after repeated seasons of underachievement.  I'm not sure the offensive system is such that it can simply replace an established quarterback with an erratic backup and continue humming, so a repeat of 2005 isn't likely.  What the Nittany Lions do have is some momentum to work with, as the re-energized fans should help steal an extra home win or two next year.
5. Virginia Tech-Addition by subtraction?  Marcus Vick was an outstanding quarterback and in my estimation would have had a remarkable 2006.  That's no longer a reality, however.  The Hokies' defense must replace some starters from a core that had two very strong seasons, so I'm expecting a dropoff.
6. Notre Dame-This is a big year for Notre Dame.  They'll have a lot of hype and expectations, even after the demoralizing bowl loss to Ohio State.  The Irish are in a great position, though, with a national schedule and the return of Brady Quinn.  Their recruiting class should add a few contributors on both sides of the ball, finally returning Notre Dame's talent (but not yet depth) to the pre-Davie levels.  The expectations and hype will be extraordinary, perhaps matching the buzz around USC last year.  But, the Irish would have to win a few games first, and their schedule is definitely choppy.
7. West Virginia-Hmm... The Mountaineers have been the worst kind of tease lately, playing poorly when they were the talk of the town and then putting together a great team in the shadows last year.  Fundamentally they look good, but history says young playmakers find ways to screw things up.  They may have been a bit lucky and snuck up on people last year (Georgia?!), and that may reverse itself this year as people will be gunning for them.  This could be a frustrating year for the faithful, as sophomore realities set in---much like what happened last year to Michigan's Chad Henne and Mike Hart.
8. Georgia-They missed on a great opportunity last year.  Other than the quarterback situation, this looks like another loaded Georgia team... but you gotta have a good quarterback to do well nowadays.  There's a lot of hype around frosh quarterback Matthew Stafford, but who knows, maybe one of the incumbents can hold onto a job for a while.  This reminds me a little of Texas' situation where the rest of the roster is set except at quarterback.  I'm a huge fan of playing young quarterbacks, but in general they can only take their team to the cusp of an elite level/greatness.  And with ever-changing rosters, sometimes the best team they'll be on may be their first year when they're not experienced enough to play at a level necessary to contend for a title.  Frustrating stuff.
9. LSU-I've long considered the Tigers pretenders.  That may be more of the same this year.  They always look good on paper but I'm not super-high on either of the quarterbacks.  The defense can be exploited by good offenses.  The best back's coming off a serious knee injury and the next-best option is football's equivalent of Chuck Knoblach.  Is there a player on the roster that can boost their fortunes?  Possibly, but I haven't seen him.  It's not like they've made great use of Early Doucet and Xavier Carter.  Either player would be a star already at several major programs.
   

• Auburn-The Tigers are in a great position.  There's ample talent on the roster, it looks balanced across most units, and the quarterback has his first season of starting behind him.
• Oregon-The Ducks need to settle on a quarterback, but should be riding 2005's momentum.  They have an elite recruit to sneak into the backfield in Johnathan Stewart, a fleet group of receivers, and who knows what on defense now that tackle Haloti Ngata's off to the NFL.
• UCLA-Welcome to the Ben Olson era.  The Bruins have improved every year under Karl Dorrell, but must now adjust to the bizarre, haphazard coaching purges that have gone on since January.
• Louisville-Last season was a disappointment, but the program managed to retain its three stars: coach Bobby Petrino, quarterback Brian Brohm and back Michael Bush.  They now have a feel for Big East play and a bad taste in their mouths---good motivation.  Brohm should be much improved (see Cox, Brandon) now that his first season as a starter is behind him.
• Alabama-The offense couldn't get any worse than it was last year, so things should be better for the Tide whether or not their record indicates as much.  It's a boost to the players to get a taste of winning after several modest seasons heading into last year.
  

Final CFR top teams list: 2005-2006

This list is a power ranking, reflecting CFR's opinion of a team's strength at that point in the season.  As such, it very often deviates from more traditional rankings such as the AP poll and other pundits' rankings.

Before I go further, I must add one caveat.  In deference to having won the national championship, Texas is #1 on here.  However, if I am to be the most accurate here I would have USC #1 on the final ranking, much as I would have put Miami #1 in 2001 after a close loss to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

The remaining rankings (2-9) are a true power ranking, however.

Congratulations again to the Texas Longhorns, who did the impossible and did it in style.

Final CFR top teams list 2005-2006 (1/9/2006):

1. Texas-The Great One showed up when it mattered, and put together an amazing final five minutes.  Coach Mack Brown was vindicated and the people of Texas possess something that for so long eluded them.
2. USC-An amazing run.  They're not going anywhere, but losing perhaps the best backfield in college football history will certainly hurt.
   
3. Ohio State-Oh, the controversy!  Thumped a well prepared Notre Dame team.  Coach Jim Tressel is starting to build a legendary bowl reputation.
4. Penn State-Survived a fast, physical Florida State team.  Offense and defense regressed a bit in the big game.
5. Virginia Tech-Bottled up a ready Louisville outfit.
6. Notre Dame-Their athletic limitations caught up to them in a bizarre Fiesta Bowl outing.
7. West Virginia-Well prepared.  Athletic on offense, tough on defense.  Defied the foibles of youth in a tough road win against Georgia.
8. Georgia-Never recovered from WVA's "shock and awe" opening effort.
9. LSU-Roughed up a ready-to-meltdown Miami team with a backup quaterback.  Nice.

Booted:

• Miami-Proof that talent does not equal wins.  Recent coaching changes a painful necessity.  A rolling stone gathers no moss---this team is covered in moss.

Others (in no particular order):

• Auburn-Listless, perhaps because of their rejection from the SEC title game and Wisconsin's last hurrah for Barry Alvarez.
• Oregon-Hard to win with backup quarterbacks.  Switched out a hot Dennis Dixon for Brady Leaf and never regained an offensive rhythm.  Played tough with a faster, bigger, more talented Oklahoma team.  Who says the Pac-10 is soft?
• UCLA-Survived early disaster against Northwestern.  Very quietly shut down the Wildcats' rush attack and scoring offense, as most points were surrendered in deep garbage time.  What little backbone the Bruins had was on full display in El Paso.
• Louisville-Had a good, not good enough performance against a game Virginia Tech squad.  Points for making do with a backup quarterback.
• Alabama-Snuck past a funky Texas Tech team.

I had a difficult time determining a 10^th team.  Perhaps that's the cutoff between the elite teams and everyone else, so  that's why there are only nine teams on the main list.

Week thirteen CFR top teams list

Week thirteen top teams list (12/01/2005):

1. USC-Win and they're in.
2. Texas-Would have remained #2 here even with a loss to Texas A&M.  Funky option attack caught them off guard but they managed over the course of the game to find ways to win.  Good team, eh?
3. Notre Dame-Survived a trap game against Stanford.  Almost savagelike in their proficiency on game winning or last minute drives.
4. Virginia Tech-Miami performance looking more and more like an aberration than symptomatic of serious flaws.
5. Penn State-I still can't believe it.  Glad that they're back, though.  I'm curious what 2006 brings.
6. Ohio State-Rounded into fine form when it counted: the end of the regular season.
7. Auburn-Inconsistency hurts them here.  Remain the cream of the SEC crop, however.
8. Oregon-Earn some points for getting past the injury to their starting quarterback.  I thought they'd fall back to the pack.  Oops.
9. Georgia-Too conservative at times in very winnable close games (South Carolina, Georgia Tech).  Would be much higher if they were a little more cutthroat.
10. UCLA-Fresno State was in this spot last week, then had a major boo boo.  Can UCLA do the miraculous?

Booted

• Fresno State-Lesson learned: never put all your eggs in one basket.

Others

• Louisville-All they do is score touchdowns.
• LSU-They get their shot against Georgia on Saturday.
• Miami-As always, they contend.  Just aren't an elite team this year.
• West Virginia-Replacing Minnesota as the NCAA's best one-sided run offense.