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Top Teams 2008

After Week Seven

  1. Alabama
  2. Penn State
  3. Texas
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Florida
  6. USC
  7. Georgia
  8. LSU
  9. BYU
  10. Missouri
  11. Ohio State
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. Texas Tech
  14. Utah
  15. Kansas
  16. USF
  17. North Carolina
  18. Miami
  19. Boise State
  20. Georgia Tech
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Friday
Nov252005

CFR week twelve top teams list

Week twelve top teams list (11/25/2005):

  1. USC-Challenged by a game Fresno State squad, but held on as Reggie Bush sent himelf into the record books.  Are really in one of sports' most wonderful runs.
  2. Texas-Two weeks to prepare for Texas A&M and get steamed about Reggie Bush more or less winning the Heisman.
  3. Notre Dame-They're good, get over it.
  4. Virginia Tech-Nice recovery.
  5. Penn State-Amazing.
  6. Ohio State-Yay Big Ten.
  7. Auburn-Opening up like a fine wine.
  8. Oregon-Are having an amazing season.
  9. Georgia-Hangin' around.
  10. Fresno State-They have a nifty little offense and play tough.  Sometime WAC teams can play.

Booted:

  • Alabama-Can't win if you can't score.

Others:

  • UCLA-Get their shot against USC next weekend.
  • Louisville-A little banged up, but hanging in there.
  • LSU-Kind of hard not to have them on here at this point.
  • Miami-Moving them down this far is probably harsh, if downright stupid.  Check back with me next week on this one.
Wednesday
Nov162005

CFR week eleven top teams list

Week Eleven Top Teams List 11/16/2005:

  1. USC-Unlike Texas, their schedule didn't end after week two.  Two one loss teams remain on the schedule in Fresno State and UCLA.
  2. Texas-How you know this winning thing is a new phenomena in Austin: cheesy slogans like "are you conVINCEd?".
  3. Notre Dame-Not satisfied with playing catch with Jeff Samardzija, Brady Quinn now has Maurice Stovall in on the act.  Scary.  The idea of having Pete Carroll and Charlie Weis on the college landscape for a long time has to be frustrating for every big program coach.
  4. Miami-Nice romp over Wake Forest last weekend.  There are things they can't improve upon all that much (Charlie Jones isn't all that talented of a back), but they are finding ways to make Kyle Wright really dangerous.
  5. Virginia Tech-There's nothing wrong with being a pretty good football team.  We'll see how their week off has treated them.
  6. Penn State-Who knew?  I think they wish they could take a mulligan on that Michigan game.
  7. Ohio State-Surging of late.  Dismantled a pretty good Northwestern offense last weekend.  Finding ways to score with big plays instead of just marching down the field---they've changed their approach!  SweaterVest isn't so dogmatic after all.

Others:

  • Georgia-Something's wrong with their defense.  Could just as easily have won that game against Auburn.  Shockley's really transformed that offense, as the coaches have opened things up and are a little less risk-averse.
  • Oregon-Still not settled at quarterback, but both of them can play a little and have been given the freedom to make plays (and mistakes).  Nice night win in Siberia Pullman.
  • UCLA-Weren't in the mood to punt the ball against Arizona State.  Weren't in the mood to make many stops, either.  Cheerful recipients of a few SunDevil turnovers that provided the game's margin of victory.
  • Louisville-Up some weeks, down the next.  Brian Brohm had one of the better nights throwing the ball from a quarterback that I've seen this season.
  • Auburn-Watch, they'll lose badly to Alabama this week to make me look stupid for putting them here.  In all honesty, they've done a good job methodically putting themselves together this year and are finishing on a high note.  This looks to be a pretty good football team that could climb CFR's rankings.
  • Alabama-It's like they play rope-a-dope, except they forget about the whole punching back part. 
Monday
Nov072005

CFR week ten top teams list

Week Ten Top Teams List (11/07/2005):

  1. USC-Remember when they kept falling behind early in games?  The reverse is happening now.  Every season under coach Carroll, USC has been able to improve upon themselves as the season rolled along.  Rough final schedule stretch will get them ready for a big bowl game.
  2. Texas-On Monday morning mailed thank you cards to Miami.  "The Narrative" looks prophetic right about now.  Right now their schedule looks like Ohio State and the 11 nobodies.  They're still really good, schedule be damned.
  3. Notre Dame-The Irish remind me of the 2002 USC team; two early losses, then realized they're great, and finished exceedingly strong.
  4. Georgia-The quarterback's back.  Let's see how they weather their remaining schedule.
  5. Miami-A very shaky fifth here.  Offense needs help, but took advantage of most of their opportunities and forced Marcus Vick into a Zabransky-like performance.
  6. Virginia Tech-Not as bad as they played.  Will probably fall after confidence was shaken and season ruined.  That's how most CFB teams respond to similar predicaments, at least.
  7. Penn State-Defense looks like it's for real, at least against opponents who know how to run.  Better than expected on offense, find ways to score.

Booted:

  • California-Tough loss in overtime on the road in bad weather at a crazy venue.  Joe Ayoob's on-the-job training hasn't been so smooth.

Others:

  • Alabama-They keep winning, but they're leaving too much to chance.
  • Ohio State-Really catching stride.  Ted Ginn has been unleashed.
  • Louisville-Quietly winning.
  • UCLA-Probably on their way off the list after getting shelled.  Waiting to see how they respond.  Still have a fine offense.
  • Oregon-Beat a pretty good team with their backup quarterback.  Only loss is to USC. 
Wednesday
Nov022005

CFR week nine top teams list

Week Nine Top Teams List (11/02/2005):

  1. USC-Crushed a very good WSU offense, and also put up 55 points for show.  Remaining slate fairly tough with games against Stanford (who almost beat them last year and on a bit of a roll), California (who always play the Trojans close and own the last victory of any opponent), Fresno State (quietly having a fine season and thrive in the world beaters role) and rival UCLA (who also almost beat them last year).
  2. Virginia Tech-Made it look easy against Boston College.  Second half defensive dominance becoming the routine.
  3. Texas-They were down 28-9, so what?  It was obvious they'd come back in a big way.  I told someone when it was halftime they'd score 49 straight.  I was almost right.
  4. Notre Dame-That Michigan State loss sure hurts right about now.
  5. UCLA-Comeback act is impressive, if annoying.  Get this, they have three weeks to prepare for USC, but the game's in the Coliseum so at least there won't be any long grass stunts and powder blue uniforms.
  6. Georgia-Just not the same team without Shockley.  Would probably rank higher on here with a little more offensive gumption from the coaches.  Run D is starting to look suspect.  Still better than anything else out there.

Others:

  • Alabama-Four touchdown passes last weekend... is that a school record?
  • Miami-Ho hum.  Let's see if they wake up against Virginia Tech this weekend.
  • Louisville-Brian Brohm is now #1 nationally in passing efficiency, but all anybody wants to talk about is that Dumerville guy.  Can't blame them, he's really good.
  • California-My friend HP has it right; when 6-2 at a place like Cal is a disappointment, things are going pretty well.
  • Ohio State-Surging, but has the run defense been exposed or is it a one-week blip?
  • Penn State-Why not?  Taking command of winnable games, like OSU.  Nothing wrong with having the fortitude and the aptitude to swiftly put inferiors away.
Wednesday
Oct262005

CFR week eight top teams list

Week Eight Top Teams List (10/26/2005):

  1. USC-They actually get to play a home game this weekend.  Survived the early-season ambushes; still have rival UCLA and persistant gnat Cal on the schedule.  Their defense is sure getting a lot of experience this year facing tremendous offenses (Hawai'i, Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, Washington State, Cal, Fresno State, UCLA).
  2. Virginia Tech-Played the Maryland game almost exactly as I expected.  They have a fairly tough schedule remaining.  They should be able to handle it.
  3. Texas-Crushed Texas Tech and surged to #1 in the first BCS rankings.
  4. Notre Dame-Dismantled BYU.  Supreme confidence.
  5. UCLA-Can't stop the run, but their offense has remained outstanding.
  6. Georgia-Unknown how good they are with a backup quarterback.  Beat a bad Arkansas squad, but they were barely in control of that game.  Defense up the middle is hurting as well.

Booted:

  • Michigan State-They've given up on their season.
  • Arizona State-See above.
  • Oregon-They may return.  Lost starting quarterback Kellen Clemens for the season.  Athletic Dennis Dixon will start, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some shuffling going on between him and Brady Leaf.
  • Auburn-Couldn't dismiss a shaky LSU team after kicker went 1/5.  Showing signs of distraction, coach went on a non-hash driven paranoid rant against ESPN and the BCS. 
Others:
  • Alabama-When does winning close, low-scoring games transition from luck to a knack?
  • Miami-Haven't quite put it all together.  I'm not sure they will, but they've been competent.
  • Louisville-Recovered nicely from the OT loss to West Virginia.
  • Cal-Like UCLA the week before, survived a tremendous offensive surge from Washington State.
  • Ohio State-Ted Ginn might have finally been freed up in a big offensive display against Indiana.
Wednesday
Oct192005

CFR Week Seven Top Teams List

I believe the creatures in our CFB fishbowl will be more readibly visible in all their flaws and brilliance when the dust settles after a few more weeks of games.  For right now, we've got a mess on our hands.  At least the top handful of teams are doing their part to not give the impression that they'd like to join the mess behind them.

Week Seven Top Teams List (10/19/2005):

  1. USC-Easier call than you think.  The Notre Dame game lived up to the hype, but it also revealed a lot about both teams and their coaches.  For USC, once again we've learned they're a pretty resilient squad.  Looking at their faces on the sidelines the tense last quarter, they appeared all but unbothered.  There's ice running in their veins.  Obviously they're a little too cool at times, but as usual they won when it mattered.  Not a lot of teams can come down from consistent blowout wins and be comfortable in the close ones against prepared competition.  USC can.  For Notre Dame, they're a determined and disciplined group.  Their coach is a legit winner, and crafted a risky but in the end perfect game plan that almost dethroned the champs.
  2. Virginia Tech-Had the week off.  Is Marcus Vick better than his brother?  Discuss amongst yourselves.
  3. Texas-Another lopsided victory.  Survived the two minor potholes on their early schedule and now get to cruise through the second half of the season.  Vince Young is good.  Real good.
  4. Georgia-Huge drop-off after these guys.  They're a little too comfortable with just winning on defense, as the offense is playing at a fraction of its real potential.  Look unmotivated at times (why?!), but if they can find a little more spark I think the Dawgs are possibly the best among the #2-#4 ranked teams.
  5. Notre Dame-Touchdown Jesus handed them a ton of intangibles for that game, and they still lost.  But its obvious now their coach is lethal with motivation and time to prepare, and the team is so heavily buying into what he's selling, that their offensive attack maintained a rigid discipline I haven't seen in a long time.  The talent is not there to push them much farther, but in a down year, they're as good as anybody else.
  6. Alabama-Hanging on by a thread, here.  The 2005 Ole Miss team is not by any measure an outfit capable of taking down a top five team.  With playmaker Tyrone Prothro gone and the sunshine faded on the crushing of Florida, this team may be running out of gas.  The defense is there, but the lack of a playmaking back and a simplistic offensive attack means a lot of close games from here on out.  Play enough close games and you're likely to have played a lot of close losses.  Ever wonder why I talk about offense so much?  Good ones can keep a team out of unnecessary close games.
  7. UCLA-Had to come back against Washington State, but it looks like the Cougars just have UCLA's number the way Cal has USC's number.  That's the nature of the Pac-10 sometimes, there's always one team who has an answer for another.  The run defense is beyond suspect, but these guys believe in what they're doing, have a boatload of talent on both sides of the ball, and a poised, veteran quarterback.  Lots to like.

Booted:

  • Florida-Their coach was in tears?  Ugh.  I fully believe in coach Meyer and what he can do and what his offense is capable of, but perhaps the personnel situation isn't right in Gainesville.  The Gators are just bogged down, and don't know how to handle five freebie turnovers from LSU.
  • Florida State-May return, since the remaining teams are so similarly fragile.  Run a junk offense, and second best offensive player has had it with the coaches six games into his FSU career.  If a kid who grew up wanting for nothing more than to play for FSU is throwing tantrums, I'm guessing FSU's woes have not ended.

Other Teams to Consider:

  • Miami-I guess?  Kyle Wright's right thumb is badly injured.  Did nothing of significance against Temple.  Play very good defense, at least according to the stats.
  • Auburn-I guess? It's hard to tell with this team.  Their run offense looks bad, the quarterback is gifted but young, the defense has been fairly good, but not spectacular.
  • Louisville-Officials admit they blew the onside kick that gave West Virginia the ball and late momentum in Saturday's game.  Lost in triple overtime.  Not a great team, but not a disaster, either.
  • California-Two straight losses.  Remain unbelievably dangerous, but play like lit matches, sometimes blowing out, sometimes setting things on fire.
  • Michigan State-Had a commanding lead on Ohio State moments before half time, then... chaos.  The Spartans never recovered and Ohio State snuck past a crushed team.  Inner turmoil bodes poorly for the rest of their season.
  • Ohio State-So horribly inconsistent.  Took advantage of a Michigan State team that just lost its way.  Defense is very good, not quite great.  Made a great Spartans offense work for every yard and score.
  • Arizona State-Had a bye week, and thus remain on the list.  We'll see if they mail in their season or fight for a shot at the Holiday Bowl.
  • Oregon-The Ducks are now 6-1, having beaten ASU and lost to USC.  Unlike other teams, the first-year spread offense has worked for Oregon.  Kellen Clemens has always been a very good quarterback, but now he's getting to do some great things.
Wednesday
Oct122005

CFR Week Six Top Teams List

Lots o' upsets last weekend means some reshuffling of the CFR rankings.

Week Six Top Teams List (10/12/2005):

  1. USC-Eventually they'll get tired of this waiting until the 4th quarter to win act and then we'll have to find something else to fault with them.  They're at Notre Dame this weekend, so NBC gets to grab the game and go HD on it.  There are other good games on this weekend, at exactly the same time slot... just nobody's telling you (well, CFR is).
  2. Virginia Tech-Castrated turkey.  Yep.  A friend of mine who attended the University of Arizona made good friends with a professor (who happened to be a VT alum) because in class he once answered the question: "what is a Hokie".  Inane college football trivia knowledge gave his career a jump start.  I don't know where I am going with this.  VT's defensive line is great, go watch them embarrass some people.  I think the gap is widening between them and Texas, to tell you the truth.  Next.
  3. Texas-Finally got over the Oklahoma problem.  Nobody cares, though, because Oklahoma is so bad this year.  There are whispers that Texas' suddenly weakening schedule (paging Ohio State) may force them into #3 or worse in the BCS rankings come the end of the year.  Ouch.
  4. Georgia-I'm coming around on this team.  They're frustratingly inconsistent and may not realize just how good they are (important!), but their defense is superb, they bullied Tennessee on the road, and the offense just looks different (read: improved) with Shockley back there.  The running game has also improved (I think its up 50 yards a game from last year).
  5. California-Hiss.  Boo.  Yeah.  Much like ASU against LSU, special teams gaffes did this team in.  But special teams gaffes aren't a nightly thing---great offensive and steady defensive play is.  The Bears' rushing attack is unreal, and whipped the UCLA defensive line all night.  Joe Ayoob is still a shadow of what he will become, but its pretty apparent that the guy is getting a feel for the offense and can make a lot more variety of throws than his predecessor.
  6. Alabama-I'm still hesitant with this team.  Brodie Croyle is a quarterback far greater than anything that's come before him of recent memory, but we're still talking about a David Mike Shula team here.
  7. Florida-Just as hesitant with this choice.  Chris Leak and DeShawn Wynn are banged up to the point where I'm not sure either will finish the season.  That may be a good thing, to make room for guys who fit better into Meyer's plans: frosh quarterback Josh Portis and frosh back Markus Manson.  The defense is playing alright (Alabama slaughter aside), enough to keep this team afloat while the offense limps through each game.
  8. Notre Dame-Coach Weis appears to be a profound leader, as he has his team believing and not killing itself.  The fact that they came back from a pretty solid beating against Michigan State to tie the game before losing is highly encouraging.  Any blowout loss worries me (see hesitancy with Florida, above), and the Irish under Weis don't look like a team that's ever out of a game.  Can they hold on against USC this weekend?  I don't know.
  9. Michigan State-Drew Stanton's amazing.  If you can install a great offensive system and plug in a stud at the game's most important position to run it, you'll usually end up doing alright.
  10. UCLA-Great win against California.  Apparently, there's been a change within the team over the last few months as coach Karl Dorrell has gone from the frigid, awkward captain, to a leader of his team, responding to players' concerns and shedding the NFL "hands off" approach to not being involved in players' lives.  What that says about UCLA's players that they need their coach to relate to them in order to succeed, I don't know.  Either way, this team has a psychological edge right now in that they believe they can win games.  It was enough to beat Cal.

Booted:

  • Ohio State-You just can't succeed if you don't have an offense.  Its not that this team isn't winning close games as Coach Tressel likes, its that their offense doesn't exist.  Any time they're punched in the mouth, they lose.  The defense has been superb, but there's nothing backing it up on the other end.  Maybe Penn State's defense IS that great, but there's still no excuse for a self-asphyxiating offense.
  • Tennessee-Show's over.  They can now play spoilers and ruin a lot of other teams' seasons (Alabama, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and its bowl chances).  First order of the offseason: find a coach who can spot the better of a handful of quarterbacks on the roster.  Give that guy some authority and maybe there will be some trickle down improvement.
  • Michigan-No further comment.

Other Teams to Consider:

  • Auburn-Have they gotten the memo that the preseason ended five weeks ago?
  • Louisville-They're baaaaack.  Or are they?  We'll soon find out.
  • Florida State-A regular reader here thinks I'm an FSU hater.  I think this team has a junk offense.  Good luck beating any of the teams on this weeks' CFR top 10.
  • Arizona State-That's three losses now.  I should boot them, but they're good enough to roar back (as Louisville has).  Why move a team that's going to be back here again? 
Friday
Oct072005

CFR week five top teams list

A little more shuffling going on this week, for obvious reasons.

I particularly enjoy this part of the season because most elite teams either have a loss or have survived a scare, and others are soon to fall.  Part of what will determine their fate here is how they get through the final half of the season, either collapsing or surviving or going on a major tear.

Week Five Top Teams List (10/7/2005):

  1. USC-Second consecutive second-half road comeback against a strong conference foe.  Thirty five second half points?  My God...  They're vulnerable, but mostly to themselves.  Matt Leinart's head is a little sore after a concussion, but Reggie Bush and LenDale White filled in admirably, controlling an entire second half.
  2. Virginia Tech-Rolling.  Two shutouts, one near shutout, a close opening win against a tough team, and last week's win against rival West Virginia on the road.  The offense isn't the greatest, but they get the ball to their playmakers (Marcus Vick, Eddie Royal).
  3. Texas-Rolling.  Missouri gave them a scare for ohhh.... a quarter.  Not their best performance and still put up 51.  They're a bit trapped this weekend, though, because Oklahoma is so down.  Worse, the Sooners appear to have at least gotten their act together to the point of modest respectability.  Just win and deal with the perception game later.
  4. California-Call this a weak number four right now.  Their depth continues to take hits and Marshawn Lynch isn't himself (think Justin Vincent).  Last night ESPN said the Bears "haven't been tested" so far.  Well, yeah.  A lot of teams haven't.  Why the Bears were their target, who knows.  We'll find out plenty these last few weeks, including this weekend's roadie against ranked UCLA (and future games at Oregon and against #1 USC).
  5. Arizona State-Almost beat USC, should have beat LSU.  Horseshoes, hand grenades.  Still a fine team.  Hopefully they don't piss away the rest of their season in disgust.  Could be better than Cal.
  6. Georgia-Hopefully this sleepwak act is over, because the SEC is theirs if they want it.  They're at #7 Tennessee this weekend.  Can also hop Cal and ASU on here quite soon.
  7. Alabama-With great hesitation.  Absolutely spanked Florida, but there isn't much to suggest this is an elite team.  They play solid defense, but they've got 1) a coach with a proven record of mediocrity and 2) a lackluster offense (sans 31 point outburst) now without its big playmaker Tyrone Prothro.  So far, so good, though.
  8. Florida-With hesitation, also.  Their offense obviously isn't all together, and it won't be for a while.  But to get spanked like that is more than a little troubling.  I remember a Prothro TD catch late in the game when the Florida DB was covering him pretty well, but just never turned around and Prothro hauled in the TD catch.  It looked like he was going through the motions, conceding the game.  If true, this team has more subtle but profound issues to deal with and may soon fall.  Or maybe they can get their act together.
  9. Notre Dame-The back of the rankings are a bit tough here.  I'm not really sure how these teams are going to behave the next few weeks.  ND's proving itself to be, if nothing else, resilient.  No blowout losses, and winning with both offense and defense.  Confidence is surging in South Bend, and they're doing a lot with limited talent, which means everyone is buying in.  But when tough times hit, can this team rally behind coach Weis, or are they going to hate him?  Two weeks to prepare for #1 USC, let's see what they do.
  10. Ohio State-On a bit of a flier, here.  Since the Texas game, this team has quietly done its things in the shadows of the rest of its shaky conference.  The defense looks pretty solid and the offense is responding to Troy Smith.  The Buckeyes are on the road to #18 Penn State this weekend.

Booted:

  • UCLA-Washington?  Ugh.  This is a pretty good team, still, and booting them might be a bit unfair.  They've got a game with the #8 Cal Bears this weekend to signal a recovery.
  • Minnesota-Waxed by Penn State.  The Gophers are alright, but not contenders.  And their great run attack didn't materialize, which is a huge sign for worry.

Other Teams to Consider:

  • Florida State-Hanging around on the periphery.  Give the ball to Booker!  And then give it to him some more.
  • Michigan State-Tough loss, but points for the recovery from a near disaster early.  Very dangerous team.
  • Michigan-Can any team be more manic?  Gosh.  They look completely different with Mike Hart in the lineup.  Its weird because his backups are decent (although Kevin Grady has that deer-in-headlights look when running).
  • Auburn-Barely.
  • Tennessee-Barely, but at least they have the right quarterback in the lineup now.
Tuesday
Sep272005

CFR Week Four Top Teams List

Week Four Top Teams List (9/27/2005):

  1. USC-We may have to devote an entire offseason to this team.  Until then, I'm not sure where to start.  Forty-five straight on the road, perhaps?  GameDay is headed to Tempe expecting an Upset---highly doubtful.  Almost ignored by the pundits right now is that the USC defense is surrendering just 15.7 PPG.
  2. Florida-Had their opening punt blocked, putting them down 7-0 early to a fired-up UK team and its fans.  Gator haters salivated.  Less than two quarters later, the score was 49-7.  Nice.
  3. Virginia Tech-Survived the first ACC test against Georgia Tech.  The offense is still puttering around, but as I've said a million times, this team manufactures points.  The defense continues to impress.
  4. Texas-They return from a bye week to play Missouri.  I want to see another blowout.
  5. California-DeSean Jackson is quickly becoming a dominant factor on the Cal offense.  Scary.  I don't care how Jeff Tedford's QBs do in the pros, since all they do is dominate in college, which is what's discussed here.  Second stringers along most of the offense and the team is still very productive.  Defense needs a good deal of work, but soft early schedules lend plenty of repair time.
  6. Arizona State-Leakfrogged Georgia (see below for their commentary).  Last week's final score was deceptive, as the SunDevils poured it on in the third quarter and brought in the reserves to let Oregon State whittle away a huge deficit.
  7. Georgia-How can a team with this much potential and a conference hierarchy collapsing around them not seize the opportunity to surge in the polls and crush everything in their wake?  They shouldn't have to be motivated to smack someone around, it should come naturally (see Texas, Florida, ASU, Michigan State).  The defense is great and the offense can be, too, if they get their act together fast.
  8. Michigan State-Almost leapfrogged Georgia.  But history tells us this team tends to blow up somewhere.  The infrastructure is outstanding though, with a productive Drew Stanton, a cadre of versatile backs, a dominant offensive system, and a few athletes on defense.  They passed their first test in crushing Illinois in their "letdown" game.  There's a lot more season to go, and as one commenter here warned, Ohio State is on the horizon.
  9. UCLA-With great hesitancy.  They've done the right things this year, as BruinsNation has consistently pointed out.  Problem is, we don't know how they'll fare against the onslaught of Cal, ASU and USC.
  10. Notre Dame-Back on the list, also with great hesitancy.  They looked a little lost at times against Washington, seemingly stuck on the 12-3 score before UW folded.  There are a lot of signs of a gritty team here, one that will eventually correct their flaws through recruiting and another year under coach Weis.  But right now this team is quite fragile.

Booted:

  • Louisville-There are serious problems when a team this good punts away two years of work in an afternoon at South Florida.  Structurally, they're sound, but there might be something internal (check the Louisville papers, heh), either the coach, or a few cancerous players... who knows?  Brian Brohm is still a football God, as is Michael Bush.  But... what happened?
  • LSU-Great coaching job there, coach Miles.  The LSU faithful were quiet for an entire half last night.  They sense something's wrong, now that the post-Katrina shock and post-ASU euphoria wore off.  As I said after ASU, this team has major problems that are going to hurt them (defense, incoherent offensive plan other than attempting to bludgeon opponents with waves of talented players).
  • Michigan-I guess I was wrong about these Wolverines.  As HP said, they have no Hart.  Chad Henne looks awful, something like the sophomore John Navarre that I was very uncomfortable with.  Which face will we see from coach Lloyd Carr this week, the weepy one or the irritated one?  Warren's already putting the Michigan bloggers on suicide watch.  At least they're close to cheap Canadian drugs and blended whiskey...

Other Teams to Consider:

  •  Florida State-Staying alive, but like Karl Dorrell, Les Miles, Mack Brown, Tommy Tuberville, David Shula and apparently Lloyd Carr, OC Jeff Bowden is a guy who must be watched with the greatest of skepticism when putting any kind of hope in his team.  Hot.  Stove.  Burn.  Hand.  Ow.
  • Auburn-Dancing oh so quietly and anonymously through the land of cupcakes.  Who would want to leave their sugary sweet world of victory and face reality?  Certainly not Tommy Tuberville.  This team's good, but how good we're not quite sure, yet.
  • Tennessee-Hanging on for dear life here.  CFR refugee Rick Clausen makes this team a winner.  They can't run with most of the top ten with their offense, and the defense would get blasted by the likes of USC, Cal, ASU, Michigan State and maybe Georgia, but outside of that they're alright.  But, with a sudden commitment to the run (hooray Gerald Riggs!) and Rick Clausen (we presume...hope...pray?) locked in at quarterback, they should return to a respectable level of football.  Just don't confuse them with an elite football squad.
  • Minnesota-I bit hard on this team early last year, drooling over their machine style running offense.  Oops.  That said, they're better this year now that the ball only has to go to Laurence Maroney (although backups Gary Russell and Amir Pinnix are pretty good replacements).  The quarterback's shaky, and the defense is modest at best.  But it's probably enough to hang around the top 15, given how swiftly a lot of teams have crumbled in the last two weeks.
  • Ohio State-Impressive win against Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are well coached, however screwed up they look right now, and the Buckeyes made them look stupid.  For whatever reason, the offense just looks a little healthier with Troy Smith in charge (if only he was a competent passer).  The defense is quite solid right now, although I suspect they're not as good as they've played so far (the great linebackers are hiding a lot of defensive line blah right now).  I like that they're playing with a little swagger right now, too.
Friday
Sep232005

CFR Week Three Top Teams List

Week Three Top Teams List (9/23/2005)

  1. USC-Nuff said
  2. Louisville-Starting to put things together.
  3. Florida-Showed can win without a great day from the offense.  It helps Tennessee refuses to play its best quarterback.
  4. Virginia Tech-On a roll right now.  We'll see if the ACC can break their stride.
  5. Texas-On cruise control.  Defensive secondary can really make plays against the run.
  6. California-Struggled against Illinois before taking care of business in the 4th quarter.  Looking pretty beat up right now.
  7. Georgia-Getting more out of their current QB than that guy who won 42 career games.
  8. Arizona State-Rough Pac-10 stretch begins soon (USC, Oregon, @ UCLA)
  9. Michigan State-Very inconsistent under coach Smith, and defense almost blew the game late, but they've got swagger and a very fine quarterback.
  10. Michigan-Hovering around the top 10...

Booted:

  • Bowling Green-Ouch.  This may have been their NIU type performance from last year.

Other Teams to Consider:

  • Notre Dame-They play a good game.  There was something lacking under Willingham and I don't see that anymore with this squad.  Will continue to scrap their way to decent success this season.
  • UCLA-Karl Dorrell.  But damn if they're not playing really good ball right now.
  • Florida State-Did win two tough games.  But Jeff Bowden's still their OC.
  • LSU-That ASU win may have been a good upset.  Should stomp Tennessee this weekend.
  • Auburn-Very quietly improving their team.  The backs are starting to run with confidence.  Brandon Cox is unreal playing the short passing game, a God at college football's equivalent of the pitching wedge. 
Sunday
Sep112005

CFR Week Two Top Teams List

I'm disappointed in basically every non-USC team in college football right now.  I wish this list could be more like a #1, followed by #11,12,13, etc.  Maybe next week will be better and teams will start playing like they're actually top ten worthy.

That said, this kind of plays into my belief that early-season is a tough time for the elite teams in college football.  They're basically on par with "lesser" opponents, because defenses are usually ahead of offenses, everyone's playing nontraditional OOC foes, and the smart coaches tend to prepare their teams to "peak", being at their best the last few weeks of the season.  Many others don't though, and we'll begin to notice who went the more expedient, safe route around the middle of October stretching to late November.  The pundits will be piling on, wondering "what happened?  These guys are overrated!" when in fact their coaches had them in Superman mode in week two, something hard to sustain for an entire season.

Anyway, here are the rankings-

Week Two Top Team List (9/11/2005)

  1. USC-Nobody's close.  I'm actually surprised by this fact, but USC's 21-week run at #1 is now tied with Miami (Fl) of 2001-2002 for the longest-ever.  Next up: Arkansas.
  2. Louisville-I'm not sure they can hold this #2 spot forever.  But, I do think the Cardinal is perhaps the most likely non Pac-10 team to dethrone the Trojans.
  3. Florida-The Gators continue to grow under Urban Meyer.  This offense is still in coccoon phase, waiting for its beautiful butterfly to emerge, grow fangs, spin twisty webs and make like a deranged Mothra to the college football landscape.  CFR thinks that two years from now, freshman quarterback Josh Portis will become the Matt Leinart to Chris Leak's Carson Palmer.
  4. Virginia Tech-Let's see how the early ACC tests go.  Little faith in Marcus Vick, but hard to argue with much else.  Great defense.  Snap!  CFR likes defense.  Can't be...Shhhhhhh.
  5. California-Joe Ayoob can throw the football.  It just took 15 attempts to figure that out.  Four first-half touchdowns later, it's clear he's the man.  The defense is highly suspect right now, though, surrendering over 300 passing yards to Washington's can't-throw QB, Isaiah Stanback.  To be fair, 100 came on two strange busted plays.  Marshawn Lynch injured his hand, but had another 9 YPC performance before leaving the game.
  6. Texas-A very nice football team.  One problem---they're one dimensional.  That tends to catch up with you.  Outlasted a gutty but overmatched Ohio State team on the road.  Now the schedule eases up... a LOT.
  7. Arizona State-Two miraculous special-teams mistakes turned touchdowns doomed the Sun Devils, who badly outplayed LSU.  The Tigers' secondary made Sam Keller look better than he is (which is pretty good).
  8. Michigan-Lost a game they should have won.  But we've seen this from Michigan before.  They're kind of like a baseball pitcher who has to give up that first-inning solo shot before he calms down and works a 7-inning gem.  I hunch the Notre Dame performance was an aberration for Chad Henne.  If not... down they go.
  9. Georgia-Like Michigan, it's up one week, down the next.  Looks like Mark Richt used up all his offensive ammunition last week.  There's really no excuse for playing so efficiently on offense on week, and flat the next.  That makes CFR nervous.  That said, DJ Shockley has a great confidence on the field.  Now, about those interceptions...  The defense continues to impress against great offensive coordinators.  Time to take the show on the road, though.  The Dawgs benefited greatly from two tough opening games in noisy, friendly confines.  The great ones find ways to make impressive wins on the road.  We're watching.
  10. Auburn-As a friend said..."Auburn's fine now that they're returned to the SEC."  Quite true.  Brandon Cox will very likely throw for the most touchdowns and yards in Auburn history this year.  The rush offense is still shaky, and manned by a committee.  Hopefully that fixes itself.  Five straight home games against nobodies should fatten the Tigers nicely.

Booted:

  • Iowa-There's a chance for their return.  Who knew the offense would collapse after Drew Tate went down?  They've always been good for a 10-7 win in that type of game.  Guess not this time.  CFR probation until further notice.
  • Tennessee-Another CFR probation.  Again, there's a shot they return to this list.
  • LSU-Arizona State exposed a shaky secondary, some knuckleheaded play, and an over-reliance on miraculous, heroic finishes.  It was, however, their first game and CFR has been known to be fairly forgiving of early-season foibles when teams show a return on their promise.
  • Boise State-The offense is beginning to show life, but as B.B. King (I believe?) says, "the thrill is gone."

Other Teams to Consider:

  • Bowling Green-Can't beat 'em if you can't outscore 'em.  Not many teams are capable/comfortable of ratcheting up their offenses to 40+ PPG.
  • Notre Dame-This is a nervous addition.  I think Chad Henne just had a major brain fart against them, and they also completely went into shutdown mode on offense after reaching 17 points.  Nine times out of ten, Michigan likely wins that game.  Credit for the win, but this is a Notre Dame team that, like many recent Irish squads, may have to over-rely on special teams miracles, a suddenly shaky opponent, and the usual Irish magic.
  • Michigan State-Highly productive offense so far.  Showtime begins this weekend at South Bend against Notre Dame.
  • UCLA-Tough call between them and Oregon.  Karl Dorrell runs this ship, so they'll never play to expectations, but hovering around the top 15 is a continued possibility.  So far Maurice Drew and Marcedes Lewis have been unstoppable.  Can Oklahoma right its ship fast enough to overcome these Bruins?  Scary thought---Oklahoma could not stop the Tulsa tight end last weekend.  Marcedes Lewis is FAR better.  HP had singled out that matchup many months ago, noting Oklahoma's inflexibility in defending tight ends and backs in exotic formations.

Some things to keep in mind---

In theory I could add teams like Florida State, Miami and Ohio State, but I just don't see them going anywhere.  Middling teams really don't get ones hopes up, and are kind of just holding ground until someone moves them.  I tend to take that extra step and just ignore them (in rankings) unless something changes for the better.

I also said last week that I tend to be a little forgiving for early foibles.  So although I have strong hunches about several "elite" teams in CFB, I haven't chased all of them from my top teams list.  It's also very likely at least a few teams will recover nicely (I'm guessing Michigan, for starters) and many critics feel stupid later on for piling on.

Thursday
Sep082005

CFR Week 1 Top Teams list

  1. USC-Nobody's close.
  2. Louisville-Shaky against Kentucky.
  3. Florida-Did you know Alex Smith averaged 8 carries a game last year?  The running quarterback is more an accessory than the main show in Urban Meyer's offense.
  4. Michigan-Shaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaky defense.  Chad Henne's leaps and bounds better than 2004, though.
  5. Georgia-That wasn't the Richt offense we saw the last four years.  It's top ten worthy if they keep using it, though.  Confidence is sky-high, will take a lot to break their mental armor right now.
  6. Virginia Tech-The absolute best at scrapping and clawing to a win.
  7. Arizona State-Newfound running attack, swaggering defense.
  8. Iowa-Efficient offense, mobile, swaggering quarterback, guys flying over the field on D.
  9. Texas-Can't pass worth a lick, but this team sells out to the run and is very successful.
  10. California-On shaky ground.  Does Ayood perservere, or does the offense sell out to run with Lynch?  Great coaching on both sides of the ball, time to prove it again.

Other Teams:

  • Boise State-Could fall, since confidence is likely shattered
  • Auburn-Will hang around unless CTT's meddling with the offense and defense again.  Remember what we said about early season games.  CFR loves teams who ride out the season with 6-7-8-9 game winning streaks.  Auburn's capable.
  • Bowling Green-Nearly unrivaled offense.  Tough going against the elusive Brian Calhoun and the Wisconsin machine run attack.
  • LSU-Not much faith in their OC.  Their offense hasn't found that 2003 spark, but apparently they bottled it up and sent it to Georgia this year.
  • Tennessee-Never liked the hype.  What kind of team cannot figure out what's painfully obvious at its most important position: Rick Clausen is much superior to Erik Ainge.  The mystery continues since Coach Fulmer says he will continue to rotate Ainge in.  Foolish.
Friday
Sep022005

Saturday's slate

Check out the slate here.

I'll be out of town, don't know when I'll return, but obviously will be tuning into the games.

Things to look for:

Can Ohio State cover the spread against Miami of Ohio?  Who is their back?  What will Ted Ginn do?  Can Justin Zwick in his 1-game tryout finally move the passing offense?

Will Bowling Green fall flat against Wisconsin's defense or can they continue to look like a legitimate national offense?

Does Tennessee swiftly end the Darrell Hackney hype?

Watch USC/Hawai'i.  What trends emerge on offense and defense against an unusual opponent on the road? Does the new hydra-like offensive coordinator position thing... know what its doing?  What will Reggie and Matt do?  What USC freshmen and reserves make names for themselves?

Will Vince Young have another Michigan performance against LA-Lafayette?

What to make of new Nebraska quarterback Zac Taylor?  Is their offense still a mess?

Can Texas A&M escape Clemson?  What will Reggie McNeal do?

How ugly will the Notre Dame/Pittsburgh game be?

Can Auburn live up to its promise and blow Georgia Tech out of the water?

Will Mike Price year II show continued progress at UTEP?

And for Sunday's games---

Is Perry Patterson a great young quarterback that nobody's talking about, or a dud?  Watch Jason Gwaltney's debut for West Virginia.  He's behind another pretty good back, so he may be limited early on.

Can Brian Brohm get over the nerves of his first start and keep Louisville's offensive machine rolling against Kentucky?

 

Can BYU's super receiver Todd Watkins light up Boston College?

Will Colorado/Colorado State be yet another thriller?

How will Nate Longshore do in his California debut?  Will the Bears play backup Joseph Ayoob?  What will Marshawn Lynch do?  Why in the world are they playing Sacramento State?

Tune into Boise State/UGA.  No questions, just answers.

I have no thoughts on Florida.  It will take them a few games to really get a grasp of the Urban Meyer offense.  Until then they're just playing ball kind of blind.

Does Navy still have that offensive magic of last year?  Can Maryland contain their run?

Can NC State upset a vulnerable Virginia Tech?  Tech's defense looks ferocious, but so does the Wolfpack's defensive line against a pretty shaky Marcus Vick.

Feel free to comment below on whatever strikes you and I'll respond to the more interesting comments when I get back.

Welcome back, college football!

I'm still figuring out a daily schedule for what will go on at Resource during the week, but count on my weekly Heisman and Top Teams rankings/lists, of course, lots of brief analysis of interesting stats, controversial banter, some more Katrina updates (Outside the Lines on ESPN did a nice show tonight about the Tulane team's relocation---pretty sad), and much more. 

Monday
Aug152005

Top ten followup

Please keep in mind my Top 10 list is a lot like HeismanPundit's lists, more of a power ranking.

It's not a predicted poll finish.  Pollsters follow a very generic and often trivial formula centered around number of losses, opponents played, and conference strength.  That is to say all things being equal, a 10-1 SEC power will be ranked higher than a 10-1 Big East Power, who would be ahead of a 10-1 MAC power.  Its slotting.  I don't slot.

I will also add that I will continue to adjust it as games are played, much like I did all of last year!  My rankings changed a lot, and I learned a lot in doing them.  But I'm not one to simply parrot everyone else's polls.  They get it all wrong most of the time anyway!

We'll see where this takes us, but I'm high on the Big Six as you are well aware.

Monday
Aug152005

CFR Preseason Top Ten/Top Teams

I'm still working on my preseason Heisman list.  That's a bit more tricky than "top 10 teams and change".

Oh, and this may not be the CFR final rock-solid top ten.  I'm still getting feedback from my fun football friends who often know more than I do and can rightfully scold any odd choices.

Here's the list, and explanations in an update later, or in a new post, later.

  1. USC
  2. Louisville
  3. California
  4. Florida
  5. Boise State
  6. Auburn
  7. Virginia Tech
  8. Miami
  9. Arizona State
  10. Michigan
Others under consideration:
Utah
Iowa
Bowling Green
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma

As you can see we have five of the Big Six in here, all within the top five.  There are three "western" teams, one southwestern (I think ASU is southwest), one midwest, three from the south and one from the atlantic coast region (ish).  CFR supports all good football teams, whatever the geography, and even if we make incessantly make fun of their coach.

More to come...

Saturday
Aug062005

Coaches Poll Out

The USA Today Coaches preseason poll is out.

Rank Program Points
1 USC(60) 1547 1
2 Texas(2) 1405 4
3 Tennessee 1259 15
4 Michigan 1242 12
5 Oklahoma 1223 3
6 LSU 1109 16
7 Virginia Tech 1090 10
8 Miami 1080 11
9 Ohio State 1033 19
10 Iowa 1014 8
11 Florida 910 25
12 Florida State 879 14
13 Georgia 838 6
14 Louisville 758 7
15 Auburn 723 2
16 Purdue 616 NR
17 Texas A&M 366 NR
18 Arizona State 304 20
19 Boise State 303 13
20 California 293 9
21 Texas Tech 247 17
22 Boston College 237 21
23 Virginia 210 23
24 Alabama 194 NR
25 Pittsburgh 193 NR


Others Receiving Votes:
Fresno State 188, Oregon 145, Utah 103, Georgia Tech 88, Wisconsin 79, NC State 69, Bowling Green 63, Penn State 44, Colorado 40, Minnesota 34, UCLA 24, UTEP 22, Nebraska 21, Kansas State 20, South Carolina 16, Notre Dame 13, Wyoming 12, West Virginia 12, New Mexico 9, Clemson 9, Arizona 8, Northern Illinois 8, Southern Miss 7, Toledo 7, Washington State 7, Michigan State 6, Iowa State 6, Memphis 5, Washington 4, Miami OH 3, Maryland 2, Kansas 1, Duke 1, UAB 1

Wednesday
Jul272005

Conventional Wisdom, ReTry

Earlier this week we took a look at the combined top 40 rankings as put together by Enlightened Spartan.  Here was the neglected original entry from Resource, sans analysis.

Here's the completed top 40 chart, for your viewing pleasure, with commentary below-

Rank Program Points
1 So. Cal 1.0
2 Texas 3.2
3 Tennessee 5.0
4 Michigan 6.6
5 Oklahoma 6.7
6 Ohio St 7.5
7 LSU 7.7
8 Va Tech 8.2
9 Iowa 8.4
10 Florida 8.7
11 Miami-Fla 9.5
12 Louisville 12.2
13 Georgia 13.3
14 Florida St 13.9
15 Auburn 15.5
16 Purdue 16.1
17 Arizona St 17.0
18 Texas A&M 19.4
19 Fresno St 19.6
20 Boise St 21.5
21 Boston College 21.8
22 Pitt 22.3
23 Texas Tech 22.4
24 Cal 23.4
25 Alabama 23.6
26 Virginia 24.4
27 Oregon 24.5
28 Ga Tech 24.6
29 Wisconsin 24.9
30 NC State 25.1
30 Nebraska 25.1
32 UCLA 25.2
33 Penn St 25.3
33 Minnesota 25.3
35 Utah 25.5
35 Bowling Green 25.5
35 Wyoming 35.5
38 Colorado 25.6
39 Miami-OH 25.7
39 UTEP 25.7

This poll represents a good freeze-frame, quick pulse check of the collective mass of college football pundits.  Not surprisingly, it's messy.

We're not sure why Texas is #2 and Tennessee #3, other than baseless frontrunning by the punditry.  Yes, Vince Young went nuts in the Rose Bowl and yes, Oklahoma is down, but does anyone really really really really really think Texas is the #2 team out there?  News flash, they're a 1-dimensional offense, so there are a handful of defenses out there capable of more or less shutting the longhorn offense down.  Heck, Bob Stoops did it just last year, and his defense got pantsed by USC.

Tennessee still isn't sure who their quarterback is.  There are a ton of great athletes on the Vols roster, but there are just as many if not more on LSU's roster.  LSU is in Les Miles' first year.  Isn't it a little too early in the Miles regime to place them so high in the preseason rankings?  He's another guy who has been 1-dimension happy, running both a pass-heavy and run-heavy but never balanced offense with Oklahoma State.

And where are the Big Six?!?!  Those teams lost a combined two games last year that weren't head-to-head, yet we find Louisville at only #12, Boise State at #20 (!), Cal at #24 and Utah at #35.

Unless they're all slated to lose 3-5 games, why the precipitous drop?

Then we have Auburn at #13, behind big name, small results programs Georgia and Florida State.  Last I checked, Auburn steamrolled the SEC to a 13-0 record.  This team's offense realistically should be better than last year's with another year to learn the system.  So what gives?  I'm not a Tuberville fan, but he's the only guy who can get in the way of this team other than Urban Meyer.  If you were on the Auburn bandwagon last year praising coach Tuberville (CTT in Auburn-speak), you cannot jump off the bandwagon now, there's just no way to ride the fence like that.  So which is it, was last year a fluke and the graduating talent loss too much, or is this a team built in a fashion to dominate the SEC until the SEC adjusts?  I think the latter.  Auburn can replace those guys, because frankly the system is more important, and its working.  Clearly very few in the nation media can grasp that.

I was impressed, however, that Wyoming was able to sneak into the top 40.  They'll fall somewhere between the top 20-40 this season.

Anyway, that's kind of my initial problem with the early rankings.  They're a good barometer for the mindset of writers and voters, and how they view the teams relative to each other.

Friday
Jul222005

What About Bob, err,Oklahoma?

In response to yesterday's Big Twelve wonder-aloud, some Oklahoma fans (on their various message boards that linked to the entry) guffawed at our failure to consider the Sooners "elite" or among the Big Six.

What of it?

Look, the Sooners are an established power, winning 67 games over the last six seasons, a national championship, a Heisman Trophy winner, two Heisman runner-ups, and appeared in three BCS championship games.  Great stuff!  But there's something not quite right here.

Yes, the Sooners in theory should just roll through the Big Twelve again, win their 10 or 11 games, and maybe make another BCS championship game appearance.  But not unlike previous BCS champs Tennessee, Florida State, Miami, Ohio State and LSU, they have failed to notch a second title victory.  Credit goes for making a remarkable third appearance, but the Sooners are starting to look like the mid-90's Utah Jazz team, running through their conference only to lose to a better opponent.

And I've now argued that it is very likely their suit of armor is showing wear, which will soon beget some kind of fall.  All those teams experienced it, and now it is the Sooners' turn.  None have yet to re-appear on the BCS or near-BCS title stage.  Yet all have more or less hovered around the top ten rankings the last several seasons.  So it's not like they've fallen too far, only that they no longer have the winner's edge necessary to go undefeated in conference and sustain that most elite status.

We have to remember greatness doesn't present itself annually.  It's a cyclical thing.  In the NFL there were some lean years between the early 90's Dallas teams and the current Patriots dynasty (with a brief competitive flare up by Green Bay and Denver).  In college football, we haven't seen a winner like USC since the mid-90's Nebraska squads.

Credit must of course be given to the Sooners, as they more than any other BCS title-winning peer were able to create an aura of dominance and sustained excellence.  But it still wasn't enough.  Losing to LSU, not USC was the real crack, historically.  If they had won a share of a second championship and then lost to USC and into the future perhaps make another BCS championship appearance or continue to steamroll the Big Twelve, their fans' justification for elite status would make more sense.

In the meantime, in our book, they're a traditional power, one that is winning a lot right now, and is capable of finishing in the top 2-10 in the polls annually (although that may be tested this season).  We simply hesitate to call them elite.

Tuesday
Jun282005

Marshawn Lynch video, and what you won't see in the SEC

Here are links to some Marshawn Lynch videos I just found

Comment: Ridiculous.  Good God did that DB ever get 'shook.

Comment: Have you seen an SEC team do that... EVER?  This hits a little at what HP is talking about with teams making regular use of their backs as receivers, to the point where the backs are capable not just in the flats but all over the field (see: Bush, Reggie; Drew, Maurice; Bush, Michael).  Cals' a Big Six member.

Comment: Nice burst there.  Finds his lane, bursts through the initial defense, makes one quick move and is off.

Comment: He can pass a little.

There's just no way this guy doesn't reach at least 2,000 yards this year, if not explode past that mark.




Tuesday
Jun282005

Nothing to see, move along

For some shallow and facile commentary on the recent blogstorm/brouhaha about Boise State/Georgia, Sophistication, self-loathing and the ESS EEE CEEE, be sure and take some time to read HeismanPundit's work today---here, here, here and here.

The big thing is HP fleshes out the Big Six and Sophistication a little more.  We like it because there's some kind of consistent criteria applied to the concept.  Not so shallow after all.