A different kind of stiff-arm

Gotta bring that A-game, folks.

Unless you're Matt Leinart, getting Heisman'd might not be the best moment in your life.

Keeping us honest

Gotta love HeismanPundit.

Guy finds a new Heisman list (not a bad one, in fact), and then makes sure to point out that we better be indexin' that link.

Consider it done...

Well, soon anyway.

Thanks HP.

• Sports-Central.org: College Football

Syracuse's #44

Any halfway conscious college football fan knows that there's something powerful to Syracuse's #44 jersey.

It was worn by Heisman trophy winner Ernie Davis, as well as NFL great Jim Brown and Floyd Little.

The College Football Hall of Fame is honoring the #44 uniform this year in a special exhibit to be displayed until December 1, 2005.  In addition, Syracuse is just now getting around to permanently retiring the number, in a halftime ceremony November 12 during their game against South Florida.

Read the release for more details, but we like this quote:

"The Syracuse 44 is the most legendary jersey number in all of college football," said Hall of Fame curator Kent Stephens. "What makes the legend even more notable are the numerous links and similarities between Brown, Davis and Little. The inspirational story of Ernie Davis further adds to the mystique."

Neat. What do you think, is Syracuse's #44 the most famous jersey in college football?  Also, didn't Rob Konrad once wear the uniform?

Heisman Blogging to return next Friday

Not a whole lot going on and HeismanPundit took an interesting but forgiven departure this week.

I really want to get into who I would have voted for in last year's Heisman race, and why.  Hopefully that's coming up next Friday.

It's the first of the mooooonnnntttthhhhhh

New feature, and I think a good one.

At the beginning of each month, we'll list some of the prominent CFB bloggers' status on a blog tracker called NZBear.  It watches blogs and ranks them by traffic or referrers, we're not sure exactly, but a lot of the more prominent bloggers point to it.

Anyway, if you want to get listed on next month's ranking feature, 1)register your blog here so NZBear can begin tracking you, and also add its code to your blog somewhere 2)let us know you want to be on next month's rankings list.

This should be fun, we can watch how much these college football blogs grow during the season.  I think college football blogging is a major growth industry of sorts on the internet/blogosphere.  Join the fun!

• Yours Truly, CollegeFootballResource.com: #6868

The rest of the list follows, keep in mind many of these blogs are crossover blogs and may only lightly touch on college football and their teams.  That said, any reference to a college football team is a good reference and tends to permit that blog to be added to our blog links section.

• Blog---Affiliation---NZBear ecosystem rank (Blogs in bold we regularly read or converse with and consider them some of the more prominent college football blogs we've found)
  

1. BoiFromTroy-USC-741
2. Tigerhawk-Iowa?-1036
3. Beldarblog-Texas-2205
4. What's Bruin-UCLA-4294
5. Catholic Packers Fan-Notre Dame-4412
   
6. Illinipundit-Illinois-4771
7. HeismanPundit-HeismanTrophy/USC-4974
   
8. BrendanLoy-USC & Notre Dame-5186
   
9. EveryDayShouldBeSaturday-Florida-5229
10. MGoBlog-Michigan-5230
11. CollegeFootballResource-CFB!-6868
12. BuckeyePundit-Ohio State-7012
13. ThisGuyFallsDown-Georgia Tech-7495
14. The Sporting Life-Auburn-8574
15. ParadigmBlog-Michigan-10921
16. ClemsonTigersSportsNews-Clemson-11040
17. BuffsLaw-Colorado-11372
18. KankaSports-Notre Dame-13308
19. Rob In Madtown-Michigan-13420
20. FireKarlDorrell(now defunct)-UCLA-17840
21. Buffs.TV-Colorado-23719

My apologies if your blog is not on here, as I probably could not locate it in the NZBear database.  If I am in error and your blog is located on there and you want it listed here, or for another month, please feel free to email me.

And if your blog is not located on there, their software understandably cannot locate every blog on the internet.  I highly recomment adding your blog to their list with the link provided above.  It is free and requires no registration or signup, only that you add the URL.

I look forward to many more of you being added next month and tracking how these blogs move upwards in the ecosystem rankings.

Cheers!

Quarterback elitists

Mike over at BlueGraySky has an interesting and well-researched piece about how the Elite 11 quarterbacks have fared over the years (titled 'Top Guns')  For those scratching their heads, the Elite 11 is a quarterback camp out in California that brings together 11 of the nation's best prep quarterbacks.

It's kind of a 'who's who' event for the high school passers and recruitniks.

As you can see from the piece, the Elite 11 quarterbacks collegiate outcomes have been a mixed bag.

Yes, 2004 Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart was an Elite 11 quarterback, but so was well-traveled John Rattay.

Here is a list of this year's Elite 11 campers-

Zach Frazer, Cody Hawkins, Isiah Williams, Neil Caudle, Pat Devlin, Mitch Mustain, Jake Locker, Kevin Riley, Josh Freeman, Jevan Snead, Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow.

Yes, that list has 12 quarterbacks.

Friday Heisman blogging

Many bloggers do cat blogging on Fridays.  We Heisman Blog.

This fine American Friday, we have just two items.

• First, Memphis' DeAngelo Williams' Heisman campaign is already in full swing.  First, the SID at Memphis sent around some Williams themed race cars to various sportswriters.  That laid the groundwork for the biggie---DeAngelo's Heisman website: "Race For The Heisman".

We like it, it's got a consistent them, the cars are so popular they've already sold out, and the website features some nice video and looks like it can be semi-regularly updated.  That said, it's still not on par with the brilliant blog Matt Leinart put together.  Too bad Matt/the USC folks haven't updated it in forever.  Oh well, it served its purpose last year just fine!

In fact, Williams website reminds us of Darren Sproles' website last year that promoted him for the Heisman with another dazzling video.

• Our next item has to do with something about Heisman voting we didn't notice until last year.  Heck, there's no way we could have noticed it until last year.  Heisman voters are demonstrably conservative.

In fact, they continue to remain lock-step with HeismanPundit's Heismandments.  The Heismandments are a set of unspoken rules that have been almost rigorously adhered to by Heisman voters.

What really put it together for the Resource folks was analyzing the available Heisman resources.

For three years now, a website called Heisman Projection has accurately predicted the winner of the race.  Projection gathered a wide swath of Heisman voters' public votes every year, and using a formula to account for regional balance, more or less nailed both the predictions for the winner and the overall vote percentages of the winner and runner-up. That is, until last year.

Heisman Projection did accurately name Matt Leinart the Heisman winner, but it had a significantly more narrow margin of victory than the actual margin.

The projection had Matt Leinart at 1181 points to Adrian Peterson's 1052.  That would have given Messr. Leinart a slim 2.7% margin.  In fact, he won by 7% (of the five person field).

Where did this gap come from?  The Resource theory is that Projection's voters were heavily skewed towards sportswriters opinionmakers.  For whatever reason, they chose Matt Leinart by a much more slim margin than the actual outcome.  From this we can infer that although Projection gathered an impressively large statistical sample, it wasn't a great sample.  But that's not his fault.  Many Heisman voters' identies are a mystery.  They don't have to be public about their vote or who they are.

It was this large bloc of silent voters that chose Matt Leinart for the Heisman trophy by a large percentage compared to Projection's sample.  We call this silent bloc of voters the Heisman "Silent Majority".  It has a Nixonian feel, no?  And much like the Silent Majority's sustained power over national politics, this silent majority heavily influences Heisman outcomes.

Had the silent majority not been voting, the Heisman trophy had a slim but still possible chance of being awarded to Oklahoma freshman Adrian Peterson.  In the end, Matt Leinart won the thing by a quite comfortable margin.

Lesson learned: there is a powerful, heavily influential bloc of Heisman voters who adhere to the before-unspoken Heisman rules, the Heismandments.  Adrian Peterson's youth and lack of a body of work beyond his freshman season probably did him in last year.

That's all, enjoy your Friday!

Friday Heisman Blogging

Well, I've neglected to Heisman Blog in a while.  Damn.

Let's get back into the swing of things on this fine Friday, if we can.

• First up, Sports Illustrated compiled a list of its 10 best Heisman backs for 2005-

Their list:

1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
2. Reggie Bush, USC
3. DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
4. Michael Hart, Michigan
5. Laurence Maroney, Minnesota
6. Leon Washington, Florida State
7. LenDale White, USC
8. Gerald Riggs, Tennessee
9. Michael Bush, Louisville
10. Marshawn Lynch, California

Our thoughts:

Peterson and Bush are the most likely of the bunch to win the award, and in all likelihood are the front-runners.  Both come from programs that are winning right now, and have won many Heismans, importantly at their positions.  Don't think the Tailback-U mystique won't kick in for Bush?

We love all the candidates, they're all terrific backs in their own ways, but we have to cut through this list somehow.  Gerald Riggs won't come close.  Maroney won't unless he rips off 2,400 yards (a possibility, however slim).  White has no chance, since he's his team's third-best Heisman option.  Hart's going to end up losing carries this year to several teammates.  DeAngelo Williams is in the same boat with Maroney, and comes from a program that can't win the Heisman. 

Leon Washington plays at a school that has won collected two Heismans recently, but both were from quarterbacks and he'll also lose a lot of catches, carries and returns to teammate Lorenzo Booker, a flashier player.  Michael Bush is a looooooong shot, but Louisville could be in the title game this year and 20-25 touchdowns and 1,500 yards should go a long way towards making his case if Louisville gets that far.  Plus he's just an interesting water cooler kind of player, in that he's about 250 pounds and runs faster than most of the guys on this list.

The last player left is California's Marshawn Lynch.  We're really high on this guy.  Not so much as a Heisman candidate, but as a real star of the college game.  Straying from the Heisman path for a moment, this is a guy who conceivably could run for well over 2,000 yards this season on a program that might contend for the championship in a few unlikely scenarios.  Lost beneath the hype of recent California quarterbacks, the Bears have been a ridiculously balanced team that has utilized its rush attack in order to bludgeon foes.  I believe Cal led the Pac-10 in rushing two years in a row and is primed to make the third time a charm.  Lynch will no longer split carries, and will also be making plays as a receiver and returner.  He has superstar written all over him, the guy is just so fast and elusive, yet physical and has a decent frame to handle the 20 plus carries he'll be burdened with this season.

Anyway, I foresee legitemate Heisman chances for only three of those ten backs---Bush, Peterson and Lynch.  Running a distant fourth might be Laurence Maroney.

• Our only other Heisman thing to discuss this week is HeismanPundit's Top 10 Heisman winners list.  Very interesting and well researched, as always with Heisman Pundit.  I'll try and compile my own top recent Heisman winners list soon.  If I'm smart, I'll make like HeismanPundit and list my criteria upfront so as not to confuse the reader, thus not falling victim to the trap of many college football writers/list whores who give readers lists and little else, leaving the confused peon to try and discern what the criteria was initially based on who was on the list.  It should be the other way around.

Anyway, here's his top 10---

    10.Billy Cannon,LSU
    9.Howard 'Hopalong' Cassady, Ohio State
    8.Charlie Ward, Florida State
    7.Doug Flutie, Boston College
    6.Tony Dorsett, Pitt
    5.Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State
    4.Roger Staubach, Navy
    3.Glenn Davis, Army
    2.O.J. Simpson, USC
    1.Doak Walker, SMU

Good stuff.

The NCAA's Swiss Army Knives

These players do it all.  They run, throw, catch, and take back both kinds of kicks.  Some even play a little defense.  And in 2005, their breadth of football skills will be one of the leading stories in all of college football.  In fact, it's very likely the Heisman Trophy winner will be amongst this group of players.

So get ahead of the curve and take stock in these prominent players, and throw in any other names that come to mind in our comments section below---

• Reggie Bush, USC
• Maurice Drew, UCLA
• Michael Bush, Louisville
• Selvin Young, Texas
• Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State
• Steve Breaston, Michigan

Feel free to suggest others.  We'll take a further look at this trend a little later on.

Update---here are some additions to our list:

• Skyler Green, LSU
• Lorenzo Booker/Leon Washington, Florida State
• Marshawn Lynch, California
• Miami CB/KR Devin Hester
  

GREAT group of football players, right there.  Remember how great it was to watch a few versatile guys like Rocket Ismail and Desmond Howard (a Heisman runner-up and Heisman winner)?  Then there was this decade-long drough, more or less, without anyone of that skill and recognition playing the game.

Now, that type of player is back, in great quantity and quality.

Enfermo

Slightly under the weather.

Anyway, our broken old computer (we've been nickle and diming for time on various and barely sufficient computers) is on its way to repair.  It took a long while, but the receipt needed for warranty work was obtained from the vendor, after various fun levels of negotiation.  Anyway, so in 4-8 weeks hopefully that puppy's back in our arms and we can ensure that there are no excuses to why Resource sucks so bad right now.

In the meantime, stop by HeismanPundit, our favorite hibernating bear just stretching his claws from a long winter's nap, as well as Resource fave EveryDayShouldBeSaturday (see favorite links to the left), those funny guys who happen to be gator fans.

In other news we watched about three quarters of the Florida spring game on CSTV (I think?) today, not bad.  That team's on its way to greatness.  Keep an eye on reserve quarterback Josh Portis, kid looks legit.  Or how about sophomore linebacker Brandon Siler?  The guy's everywhere.  HP thinks receiver Andre Caldwell's the real All-American in Gainesville.  We shall see.

Heisman-Destination 2006

Yikes.

Resource favorite Heisman Pundit is back, and has a new entry about the potential field for... 2006!  We'd make fun of him for this, but 1)it's slow season and 2)after following that site we understand the rationale behind the choices and actually find little to disagree with.

One emergent theme is that the traditional Heisman powers (USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame) earn mention.  Another is that the "USC QB" is now generic enough to be projected into the next season.  Wasn't USC tailback-U and isn't Reggie Bush arguably the leading Heisman candidate this season?  I can't wait to see the next two Heisman seasons play out to test these models.  Hopefully nobody gets injured along the way.

My thoughts on each listed figure-

Adrian Peterson-Greatest pure runner in the game.  Not as exciting as Reggie Bush.  Has that Hershel Walker feel.

Chris Leak-About to become a superstar.  Lacks personality, but a dynamic thrower who has his explosive moments on the field.

Brady Quinn-Notre Dame.

Chad Henne-Mr. Vanilla.

Kyle Wright-I felt during his recruitment he was the closest thing to Carson Palmer I had seen.  Time for him to live up to that burden (read---greatness interspersed with inconsistency).

Ted Ginn-Incredible hype and excitement, great great great athlete, doing it so well at such an early stage.  On a declining team, perhaps.

John David Booty-Unknown, but coming out of high school was renowned for his accuracy and touch.  Must shake that shotgun quarterback rep.  Playing at USC helps.

Drew Tate-Piss and vinegar.  We love the energy of this guy, really caught fire at the end of last season.

Wow, those were generic.  Had to type something, though.  Enjoy your weekend.

Friday Heisman Blogging (For Real This Time)

• Last week we posted about the death of Army Heisman winner Glenn Davis.  Later this week, The Sporting News' Dave Kindred penned a nice piece about Davis.

Glenn Davis, a magic name in college football history.

He was the elusive "Mr. Outside" to fullback Felix "Doc" Blanchard's "Mr. Inside" on the greatest Army teams. The Cadets were undefeated national champions in 1944 and 1945 and undefeated with a tie in 1946, the year Davis won the Heisman. In those Davis-Blanchard years, Army went 27-0-1.

Five feet 9 and 170 pounds, Davis was a halfback with world-class speed. He once finished a game, jumped into a car, shucked his football gear for a track suit, borrowed spiked shoes and alit at the blocks to run the 100 in 9.7 seconds. One season at West Point, he carried 82 times for 944 yards, an 11.5-yard average. His three-season average of 8.3 yards a carry remains a major-college record.

Davis wound up quietly donating his Heisman trophy to his high school alma mater, LaVerne High School in Bonita, California.  He was the stuff of legend and ended up married to Elizabeth Taylor for a while.

Interesting trivia in the article, about the auction prices for Heisman trophies.  Yale's 1936 winner, Larry Kelley, raked in $328,110.  Notre Dame's Paul Hornung, who won it in 1956, sold his for $250,000.  USC's O.J. Simpson, to pay off his civil trial fees and penalties, received $230,000 for his trophy.  I wonder how antsy the athletic directors at Notre Dame, Ohio State, and USC are to pawn those things off?  Just kidding of course, but each school controls at least six live Heisman trophies, easily worth over a million dollars in total.

• Although not a Heisman winner, former Oklahoma back Buck McPhail helped block for 1952 Heisman winner Billy Vessels.  He passed away a week or so ago.  He was part of the first thousand-yard rushing tandem in college football history in '52, gaining 1,018 yards and 6.3 yards per carry.

• Here is a Heisman link I have found and will add to our links section soon:
  
• CNNSI Statitudes-From Heismans to bowls.  There is a theory out there that winning the Heisman is a bowl curse.  The link is a bit dated (January 1, 2001), but if anything, only the undeserving, or at least weaker winners, have struggled.  Examples-

Credible Heisman Winners-
Desmond Howard, Michigan 1991
1992 Rose Bowl Performance
35 Rec Yards, 95 Total Yards
Washington 34, Michigan 14

Charlie Ward, Florida State, 1993
1994 Orange Bowl
24 Comp/43 Att (56%) 286 Yards, 0TD/0 INT
FSU 18, Nebraska 16 (FSU wins national championship)

Rashaan Salaam, Colorado, 1994
1995 Fiesta Bowl
27 Carries, 83 Yards, 3 TD
Colorado 41, Notre Dame 24

Eddie George, Ohio State, 1995
1996 Citrus Bowl
25 Carries, 101 Yards, 1 TD
Tennessee 20, Ohio State 14

Danny Wuerffel, Florida, 1996
1997 Sugar Bowl
18 Comp/34 Att (53%) 306 Yards, 3TD/1 INT
Florida 52, Florida State 20 (Florida wins national championship)

Charles Woodson, Michigan, 1997
1998 Rose Bowl
1 INT, 4 Tackles, 7 Rec Yards
Michigan 21, Washington State 16 (Michigan wins national championship)

Ricky Williams, Texas, 1998
1999 Cotton Bowl
30 Carries, 203 Yards, 2 TD
Texas 38, Mississippi State 11

Ron Dayne, Wisconsin, 1999
2000 Rose Bowl
34 Carries, 200 Yards, 1TD
Wisconsin 14, Stanford 9

Questionable Heisman Winners-
Ty Detmer, BYU, 1990
1990 Holiday Bowl
11 Comp/23 Att (48%) 120 Yards, 1TD/1 INT
Texas A&M 65, BYU 14

Gino Torretta, Miami, 1992
1993 Sugar Bowl
24 Comp/56 Att (43%) 278 Yards, 0TD/3 INT
Alabama 34, Miami 13 (Miami loses national championship game)

Chris Weinke, Florida State, 2000
2001 Orange Bowl
25 Comp/52 Att (48%) 276 Yards, 0TD/2 INT
Oklahoma 13, Florida State 2 (Florida State loses national championship game)

To me, it appears the legend going around that Heisman winners have bad bowl games is false.  But, if you insert a simple qualifier before the initial theory, we have a new, well backed theory.

Before-Heisman Winners have bad bowl games
New-Dubious Heisman winners have bad bowl games; legitemate Heisman winners have solid or better bowl games.

Look at the data above; of the eight "legitemate" Heisman winners listed, three won a national championship, all had successful individual games, and only two participated on losing teams.

Yet looking at the "dubious" Heisman winners, two of them participated in and lost national championship games, both with terrible performances.  All three had bad games.

The story stops in 2001, but since then the following gentlemen have won the Heisman Trophy:
2001-Eric Crouch, Nebraska
2002-Carson Palmer, USC
2003-Jason White, Oklahoma
2004-Matt Leinart-USC

Again, the revised theory we have made, holds. 

Crouch and the Nebraska option were suffocated by Miami in the Rose Bowl, and he joined the ranks of dubious recent winners losing in a championship contest.  In retrospect, Crouch was a solid winner, but in a fairly weak Heisman candidate field.

Palmer had an incredible finish to the 2002 season, directing USC's revival and smashing an upstart Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

Jason White had a terrible Big 12 Championship game against Kansas State, but behind his 40 touchdown tosses won the award before losing in a championship match against LSU.  He won in much the same way that Ohio State's Archie Griffin won the award, with voters mailing in their ballots before the season finished, too late to recast their votes after a late-season change (White's collapse/USC's Anthony Davis' incredible performance against Notre Dame that forced a change in Heisman voting rules).

Last year, Matt Leinart beat a loaded field, albeit with a fairly boring season, then eviscerated Oklahoma in a championship game with 5 touchdown tosses and a 55-19 final outcome.

• Who should have won the Heisman?

Heisman revisionism is always interesting, in much the same way people look back on the contributions of the various American Presidents.  Opinions and the standards by which we judge and determine are fluid and ever-fickle.  Here is a Statitudes piece taking a skeptical look back.

1992 winner: Gino Torretta, QB, Miami
Statitudes nominee: Garrison Hearst, TB, Georgia

1996 winner: Danny Wuerffel, QB, Florida
Statitudes nominee: Jake Plummer, QB, Arizona State

2000 winner: Chris Weinke, QB, Florida State
Statitudes nominee: LaDainian Tomlinson, TB, TCU

Can't say we agree with any of these, except perhaps the Plummer choice.  Did the Heisman voters get it right?  Who was your choice in 1992, 1996, and 2000?

• Final thought-Is there any doubt right now that the 2005 Heisman Trophy winner will be one of the following three players-Reggie Bush, TB, USC, Matt Leinart, QB, USC, or Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma?  Injuries, and other unforseen situations can easily shake this up, but this thing has the feel of an incredibly hyped, yearlong battle among the superstar troika here, from two of the most prominent Heisman programs, including the defending award winner, and two backs from programs with a rich history of Heisman backs.

We have a lot more Heisman talk to address in the coming weeks, please continue to stop by.  Look for some kind of very early Heisman preview next week.  We'll float some names outside of the "Big 3".

Ted Ginn, Jr.

One of our favorite topics on here is Ted Ginn, Ohio State's precocious "athlete".  In just 32 touches last year, he scored 8 times.

Yeah.

On our old location we campaigned hard for people to stand up and notice his skills well before the national media or Ohio State's coaches really took notice.

Anyway, ESPN's blogger extraordinaire Bruce Feldman is reporting that Ginn may finally end up at his original position---cornerback.  He has apparently added some weight and the Chris Gamble comparisons are starting up.  The difference is that Ginn is light years ahead of Gamble athletically, and according to Feldman's sources, defensive technique.  Scary.

We'll file this under Heisman, not necessarily for this year (the 3-headed monster of Bush, Leinart and Peterson should come away with the award), but maybe Ginn's junior year, presumably his last in college football.

A Few Less Heisman Voters?

Found this on SportsByBrooks-

In a letter to readers on Sunday, ATLANTA CONSTITUTION Sports Editor Ronnie Ramos reported that the newspaper will no longer allow its sportswriters to vote in polls or for awards.

Ramos: "We have determined this is no longer appropriate. Our writers need to focus on bringing you the news, not determining which sports figures ought to win awards."

The exception will be AJC columnists, who will be allowed to continue voting for the Pro Football and Baseball Hall of Fames

This has the feel of the AP's BCS-pullout. I don't know how many Journal-Constitution writers are Heisman voters. Maybe I should send in an email to HeismanPundit and find out?

Heisman Project

I talked to a reliable contact on Sunday about my Heisman Project and he said something to the effect of "yeah, if you keep this up for 5 years, maybe" I could get a shot at a Heisman vote.  Pretty disheartening.  That said, we'll make a run at it, I really love the award and it's kind of a dream to be a Heisman voter.

The alternative is to start begging current Heisman voters to will or allocate their vote to me.  That will be a more behind-the-scenes route, if I choose it.  And of course it takes some convincing.  We shall see...

Keeping with the same Heisman thought, here's a question for you-

What do you do if you're USC next year, in terms of promoting a Heisman candidate?  The early-season "default candidate" strategy of putting Matt Leinart on every magazine cover worked like a charm, needing only a little extra promotion before the Notre Dame game.

But now Reggie Bush has emerged and Matt Leinart has won his Heisman trophy.  There has been only one repeat winner of the award, Ohio State's Archie Griffin, and he won one of those thanks to extremely early ballot mailings, a procedure they changed after USC's Anthony Davis went nuts against Notre Dame during the regular season but most ballots had already been mailed.

Does USC try and buck history and support a Leinart run at back-to-back Heisman trophies?  Or do they market a rising star in Bush, who happens to play tailback at USC, a position with the credentials of 4 Heisman trophies backing it up?

Personally, I would let Matt Leinart do his thing, and get some energy for Reggie Bush.  Try having some stories written about him before the year, make some election theme, "Bush in '05" or something revolving around his nickname "The President".  Bush is now a junior and should have a lot more credibility with Heisman voters with another year of experience under his belt.

Or does USC pack it in and hand the award to Adrian Peterson, who has the potential to run away with the award if Oklahoma has a great year and he goes over 2,000 yards?

And then there are dark horse candidates like Florida's Chris Leak, a guy with a big name, and playing in what should be a great offense and directing a team that may well go undefeated through the regular season.

Whatever the situation, this year is shaping up to be one of the better Heisman years ever, eclipsing last year's amazing and unprecedented field that was a solid two-deep in candidates.

It is heartening to know that HeismanPundit and HeismanProjection.com will be online tracking the award's ups and downs this year.  I'll be glued to both websites once the field starts to take shape.  You should be, too.

Heismandments, Extrapolated

The following is a simple exercise to look at next year's Heisman race, borrowing only from Heismandment No. 7:

7. If you are a quarterback or running back at the following schools, you have a good chance to win if you have a very good statistical season, are an upperclassmen and your team wins at least 9 games: Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami and Florida State. These 9 teams have won 10 of the last 13 Heismans and six of the last seven.

Well, if that holds like it did last year, here are the candidates who can win the Heisman from those schools:

• Notre Dame---Brady Quinn
• USC---Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White
• Texas---Vincent Young, Selvin Young
• Oklahoma---Paul Thompson
• Nebraska---Joe Dailey, Cory Ross
• Ohio State---Troy Smith, Justin Zwick
• Michigan---None
• Miami---Tyrone Moss
• Florida State---Wyatt Sexton, Leon Washington, Lorenzo Booker

It is very likely one of these 15 athletes will win the 2005 Heisman Trophy. Scary, but true.

***
Update 1/2006:

Sure enough, USC's Reggie Bush won the 2005 Heisman Trophy, Texas' Vince Young was the runner-up, and Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn rounded out the top four. 

Update on Wednesday, January 19, 2005 at 12:29AM by CFR

As an aside, of the schools credited with a Heisman trophy in the last 14 years, the only ones not in Pundit's list are Wisconsin, Colorado and Florida.

It is interesting Pundit chose 14 years, because that is the break right after a two-year run by statmasters Andre Ware and Ty Detmer.  Soon after, a Heisman backlash appears to have occurred, cutting short campaigns by gimmick offense generals such as Drew Brees and Kliff Kingsbury.  In that regard the cutoff is natural and understandable, an intelligent recognition of modern Heisman voting patterns.

The Heismandments

Below is one of the more accurate but never-before-articulated items of analysis I've seen in all of sport.

It is a list of qualifications for the Heisman Trophy---"Heismandments"---as presented by HeismanPundit. I'll gladly save it in the "intelligence" blog category, for future reference.

The Rules (the 10 Heismandments)

Heismanpundit.com has compiled its 10 rules to winning the Heisman--"The 10 Heismandments," if you will. The more Heismandments that apply to a player, the better his chances to win.

THE 10 HEISMANDMENTS

1. The winner must be a quarterback, a running back, or a multi-threat athlete.

2. The winner must be a junior or senior. Caveat: Obviously, though no freshman or sophomore has ever won the award, it is likely that someday someone will. But, it would take an extremely weak field for this to happen. The athlete would almost certainly have to play for a traditional power competing for the national championship and, if a sophomore, have had a breakthrough first season.

3. The winner must put up good numbers in big games on TV.

4. The winner must have some prior name recognition. The only way to overcome lack of prior name recognition is by producing a season that is head and shoulders above the other challengers.

5. The winner must be one or more of the following three:

a. The top player on a national title contender.

b. A player who puts up good numbers for a traditional power that has a good record.

c. A player who puts up superlative single-season or career numbers on a good team, or numbers which are way out ahead of his Heisman competitors.

6. The winner cannot be considered an obvious product of his team's system. Call this the Andre Ware rule. Basically, this means that voters are unimpressed by huge stats put up by an individual in offensive systems conducive for huge numbers. Voters at one time were impressed (back when many of these systems were new and in vogue), but most have reached a level of sophistication that they are no longer completely fooled by big numbers alone. They will also look at the how the candidate fared against good teams and if the numbers are lacking, the player will suffer.

7. If you are a quarterback or running back at the following schools, you have a good chance to win if you have a very good statistical season, are an upperclassmen and your team wins at least 9 games: Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami and Florida State. These 9 teams have won 10 of the last 13 Heismans and six of the last seven.

8. There are statistical benchmarks for each position in order to be considered:

a. If you are a running back, you need to gain at least 2,000 yards if you are not on a traditional power or a national championship contender. This is actually a number that is slowly rising as more backs hit that mark. If you are on a traditional power or national title contender, you must gain at least 1,700 yards. In either case, you also must score at least 17 touchdowns.

b. If you are a passing quarterback on a traditional power or national title contender, you need to pass for at least 3,000 yards and must have at least a 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio, with at least 20 TD passes and an efficiency rating of at least 135.0.

c. If you are a running quarterback on a traditional power or a national title contender, you must reach the 1,000-yard mark rushing in spectacular fashion and also be a decent passer.

d. If you are a multi-threat athlete, you can only win if you produce spectacular plays on special teams, specifically kick and punt returns.

9. There will never be another two-time Heisman winner.

10. The winner must be likeable.