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After Week Seven

  1. Alabama
  2. Penn State
  3. Texas
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Florida
  6. USC
  7. Georgia
  8. LSU
  9. BYU
  10. Missouri
  11. Ohio State
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. Texas Tech
  14. Utah
  15. Kansas
  16. USF
  17. North Carolina
  18. Miami
  19. Boise State
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Entries in Schedules (117)

Friday
Apr142006

Please Note

I'm not hoping to get into another fight with EDSBS in the post below.  For a lot of reasons disagreements are often more controversial than they should be.

I recognize their argument and much of it has its merits---but like I said I think that overall it's a crutch.

In diplomatic fashion they have presented a middle path, a solution to make the scheduling thing less controversial.  I haven't ignored that, and think it's interesting and relevant.  But in expending my energies on my disagreement, it often goes unstated that I don't have any personal issue with them and completely respect what they've written and agree with some of it.

In other words I hope no blood is spilled.  They're intelligent and can easily navigate the various levels of the argument, that's not in dispute.

Friday
Apr142006

Pfffft

If you've read CFR for awhile, you're well familiar with the whole scheduling and SEC myth argument coming out of here.

I won't dig too deeply into any of it again, but I will be up-to-date and post a few links here of the argument being extended into 2006

The combatants:

EDSBS and Notre Dame blog The House Rock Built.

The material:

The argument:

  • THRB-The SEC's obsessive quest for all games to be played within a minute's walk of their homes and to beat up on the area undercard equivalent instead of taking the game on the road against foes who can hit back.
  • EDSBS-The money, the money, the money, it's all about the money.

The problem:

The "money" argument is a crutch.  The SEC is isolated as the most committed conference to a scheduling scheme that involves little travel, regional cupcakes and great hype.  It's made the conference rich but is also doing the game a severe injustice and reaping greater than deserved rewards.

If money was everything, all the other major conferences would have followed suit.  Instead, the Pac-10 and the Big Ten have (with some exceptions) continued their rigorous beyond-the-borders scheduling approach, along with the ACC and Big East to a lesser degree.  The Pac-10 is considered a weak sister, but historically the Big Ten is neck-and-neck with the SEC for college football wealth and prominence.

In other words, something's amiss.

EDSBS's justification is that teams like Notre Dame historically had to barnstorm to get respect, as did USC, but that's no longer the case and both programs are much more regarded in both the present and historical context than all but one SEC team: Alabama (forming college football's Holy Trinity).

That argument fell apart in the 30's for both Notre Dame and USC as both won several mythical national championships and jumpstarted the nearly eight-decade rise to prominence for both programs.  At this point both continue to schedule aggressively because their athletic departments seek competitive football games, the rewards of which extend beyond the short-term monetary gain.  Both programs have left championships on the table by taking on their schedules over the years, but here's guessing that neither feels to bad about that.

To incorporate MGoBlog's Heisman logic linked to earlier, it's like the slave has become the master with the scheduling gimmicks inherent in the SEC:

Faced with a game of stark military aggression, Nietzsche would probably see two kinds of players: those who respond out of fear and those who impose their will on things. Meatheads call the latter "swagger." Nietzche would see masters and slaves

Ohio State taking on Texas, Notre Dame taking on USC, etc. is certain teams not responding out of fear, but imposing their will on things.  They were attempting to become master.  Someone is bound to lose those games, but there's always the next year for the loser, another opportunity to break those shackles and convert from slave to master.

The problem with the SEC way is that it's an end-around to becoming master without the necessary personal bloodshed.  It's the sniper's bullet instead of the concussed slugfest with the neighborhood bully.

Tuesday
Dec202005

Overseas?

If so, you can still catch some bowl games.

Here is the search page for ESPN's international broadcast schedule.

Pretty cool. 

Monday
Dec192005

I agree

Bifurcation: bad.

Round-robin: good.

My weathered old Webster's New World dictionary defines conference as the following-

  1. A formal meeting for discussion
  2. An association of schools, churches, etc.
But is a conference a conference if its members don't [see definition no. 2] "associate"?


Apparently not.  Here are three teams from each of the big 12-team conferences, the ACC, the SEC and the Big 12.  Notice who is missing on their schedules?

  • Georgia Tech (7-4), ACC: Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
  • Iowa State (7-4), Big 12: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma
  • Georgia (10-2), SEC: Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and would not have played LSU if not for the SEC title game.

How, exactly, are these conferences associating?

At 7-4, Georgia Tech and Iowa State were very close to being ineligible for bowl games, needing a minimum of six wins.  Georgia benefited from a softening of its schedule to play its way into a BCS game.  The math behind the larger conferences has won out to where their institutions enjoy far greater benefits than those who elected not to play along in this clever but nefarious game.

What ends up happening is that a lot of teams have inflated records.  Aggregate enough teams with inflated records, and suddenly a conference is raking in a lot more attention for its institutions, as well as bowl appearances.  For example, the Pac-10 was unable to fulfill its allotment of bowl teams this year.  The conference doesn't play this scheduling game like its brethren elsewhere, and it cost them in terms of psychological conference prestige and the monetary rewards of bowl appearance money---money that went to other teams who claimed some of its vacant bowl slots.  I should note that the Big 10 has abstained from the two-division/12-team setup.  However, it has eleven members and is thus unable to create a true round-robin as will happen next year in the Pac-10.

The benefit to the round-robin is that it's far less confusing for fans and eliminates the "what if" aspect at the end of the year.  Imagine if Auburn and Oklahoma had played their entire conference last year?  What if one of them had lost?  The benefits are potentially tremendous in that we can get more information on these teams and have a better idea of their relative strength when doing rankings.  I'm a strong advocate for good faith scheduling, and it's important right now because we're seeing a great many more record disputes than ever before, and it's a fair argument to say a lot of that traces back to the creation of the larger conferences and the greater emphasis on soft out of conference scheduling that has been discussed ad nauseum on here.

I hope you understand my intent isn't to slam a particular conference here, or elevate another.  However, I do feel honest scheduling is important and reduces a lot of the end-year confusion and bitterness if properly implemented.  Until everyone's held to a more uniform standard these debates won't end.

Friday
Dec162005

Early bowl thoughts

I just put up the bowl schedule, so take a look (or find an exact replica on ESPN.com, Yahoo Sports, CBS sportsline...).

  • Too much

I absolutely love bowl season.  Unusual football matchups stir the collective pot in college football, and reveal to us just a little bit more about each team that we might not have learned in the regular season.  Having nonstop games from December 20th to January 4th (well, if you ignore that odd New Year's break) is a blessing.

That said, I'd gladly excommunicate a few games to create more favorable matchups and do away with a few bowl game carp (bottom dwellers).

Look at how many 6-5 teams are participating this year: 13.  Of those, none are all that exciting.  I have some lenience for smaller-conference teams who don't have these kinds of regular opportunities (South Florida, Kansas), but do we really need to see another bad game involving North Carolina State, Colorado State, Virginia or Missouri?

  • Good, bad, overhyped, underrated, meh

Me Likey:

  • GMAC Bowl: UTEP vs. Toledo
  • Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. Oklahoma
  • Sun Bowl: Northwestern vs. UCLA
  • Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Alabama
  • Gator Bowl: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
  • Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl: USC vs. Texas

Bah humbug:

  • New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State
  • Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado State vs. Navy
  • Fort Worth: Kansas vs. Houston
  • Meineke Car Care Bowl: South Florida vs. North Carolina State
  • Champs Sports Bowl: Clemson vs. Colorado
Overrated:
  • Insight Bowl: Arizona State vs. Rutgers
  • Alamo Bowl: Michigan vs. Nebraska
  • Peach Bowl: Miami vs. LSU
  • Outback: Iowa vs. Florida
  • Sugar Bowl: West Virginia vs. Georgia
  • Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. Florida State
Underrated:
  • Hawai'i Bowl: Nevada vs. UCF
  • MPC Computers Bowl: Boise State vs. Boston College
  • Music City Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia
  • Independence Bowl: South Carolina vs. Missouri
  • Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. Fresno State
  • Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Ambivalent:
  • Las Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. California
  • Motor City Bowl: Memphis vs. Akron
  • Emerald Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
  • Houston Bowl: TCU vs. Iowa State
  • What are you doing New Year's... New Year's Day?

Apparently nothing.  There will be no bowl games played on New Year's Day this year.  There won't be a Rose Bowl Parade, either.

  • Five places

Five best bowl locations:

  1. Pasadena, CA
  2. Miami, FL
  3. San Diego, CA
  4. Honolulu, HI
  5. Las Vegas, NV

Five places of bowl banishment:

  1. Boise, ID
  2. Shreveport, LA/Lafayette, LA
  3. Detroit, MI
  4. El Paso, TX
  5. Mobile, AL
  • Don't hold me to this

Early, completely uninformed (until I do a little more studying) game picks:

  • USC over Texas
  • Penn State over Florida State
  • Georgia over West Virginia
  • Notre Dame over Ohio State
  • Auburn over Wisconsin
  • Virginia Tech over Louisville
  • Florida over Iowa
  • Alabama over Texas Tech
  • Miami over LSU
  • Oregon over Oklahoma
  • Boise State over B.C. (it's the blue turf, dammit!)
Incomplete list.
Tuesday
Dec062005

Week fourteen weekend review

Fin.

Louisiana Tech 40, Fresno State 28

Fresno put all its eggs into the "beat USC" basket, and got burned.  'Twas a noble but misguided cause, as the team now limps into postseason play.

Tulsa 44, UCF 27

In the infancy stages of this season, I wrote about how horrible Tulsa was as Minnesota kicked their butts on both sides of the ball.  Now, they're one of the better teams in their conference.  Their turnaround has been remarkable and admirable.  They have earned every win this season, having built themselves to get better after each successive game instead of selling out for a few early wins and a predictable late collapse.

Texas 70, Colorado 3

Texas has done everything it could this season to put itself in a position for the Rose Bowl.  This was the clincher.

Navy 42, Army 23

Sweet.  I love that this game matters to a lot of people who have absolutely no connection to the academies.

USC 66, UCLA 19

First time I've ever seen Matt Leinart unnerved, although it's understandable given it was his last home game.  It's a huge testament to the USC offense that its quarterback can air mail literally every pass for an entire half and still cinch a game early in the second quarter.

Georgia 34, LSU 14

This wasn't really a surprise, now, was it?  Maybe Boise should have scheduled LSU at the start of the season instead of UGA.  Joking...

West Virginia 28, South Florida 13

The Mountaineers got good a season later than expected.  They're not playing Utah in a BCS bowl like Pittsburgh had to last year, so they've got a chance.

Louisville 30, Connecticut 20

Brohm out, Bush in.  One day they'll both be healthy and the Cardinals will score 80.

Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 22

Ouch.  Here's to Marcus Vick having a productive offseason and developing into a little more of a leader.  The Hokies had finally cured their late-season swoons last year behind Bryan Randall, then returned nearly the exact same roster except for Vick.  Vick's elevated the offense but the team's gone back to its old ways.  At least they're getting spanked by Miami or Florida State instead of West Virginia.

Thursday
Dec012005

Week fourteen weekend thoughts

So sad!  It's the final regular-season weekend for all of college football.

Luckily college football is very much a year-round ordeal so CFR is not going anywhere.  Heisman ceremony.  Bowl games.  Recruiting.  Letter-of-intent day.  Spring practice.  Summer practice.  Fall practice.  Start all over again.

Colorado @ Texas

The 'Horns know they're playing for the Rose Bowl and should put together a fine performance in the early game.  Colorado backed into this one and really have no business being on the same field with Texas.

Navy @ Army

I can't take sides, so I'd rather just enjoy two well-coached teams representing our fine service academies.

UCLA @ USC

I'm actually a bit worried for the Trojans.  That said, they're averaging something well over 600 yards in home games this year.  I think UCLA will overprepare for Reggie Bush and give a lot of openings to USC's power run game and disciplined pass attack.  Advantage: USC in one of the nation's most unhealthy rivalries.

Georgia @ LSU

I'd have an easy Georgia selection here, but they display an uncanny reticence in big games, letting slightly inferior opponents (Georgia Tech, South Carolina)  get within range.  I'm still going with the Dawgs to shake up all those who have so casually slotted LSU in a BCS game.

Florida State @ Virginia Tech

This one should get ugly.  I know the 'Noles are playing for pride and Jeff Bowden for a quiet offseason, but they're way outclassed in this one.  I think the Hokies will put together one of their finest defensive efforts and scramble the brains of poor Drew Weatherford.  This game may be one of those pivotal moments that determines whether FSU can go on with its charade for another season or two, or wheter they need to make some painful changes at least from within the assistant ranks.  It's obvious that recruiting will continue to be great for years on end, but good recruits don't mean good wins anymore. 

 

Saturday
Nov262005

Week thirteen weekend review

One weekend left, so sad.

Kansas 24, Iowa State 21

Even though Texas A&M gave them a scare, nobody (read: Iowa State, Colorado) in the Big Twelve wants to play Texas.  Nor are they prepared to, which is pretty sad.  The committee of the hapless: Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M.  Texas Tech is dangerously close to joining this list.  Only a humbled Oklahoma shows any signs of legitimacy.

Big Twelve rant over, Iowa State lost thanks to a ridiculous late collapse, next!

Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 14

He's baaaaaaack.  Adrian Peterson had an 84 and a 71 yard touchdown run.

Louisville 41, Syracuse 14

Most offenses collapse when a superstar back isn't playing and the star quarterback goes down.  This isn't your normal offense.  It helps Syracuse is on the schedule, but the Cardinals' system is fairly resilient by itself.

Connecticut 15, South Florida 10

It's just too cold to play up there in November for the Florida boys, heh.

Miami 25, Virginia 17

The 'Canes resurfaced for a three-week period, and have since gone back to early-season disappointment mode.

Florida 34, Florida State 7

Urban Meyer can coach.  Too bad his quarterback's such a bad fit.

Nevada 38, Fresno State 35

Classic letdown game.  Embarrassing, regardless.

Virginia Tech 30, North Carolina 3

Football games are 60 minutes long, yet many of us like to judge teams only on their first 30.

Georgia 14, Georgia Tech 7

Tech's defense has been roaring lately, and they almost stole their second upset in as many weeks.  Mark Richt goes into SEC mode on offense way more often than he needs to given that he has the NCAA's best combo quarterback.

Notre Dame 38, Stanford 31

This was a great game.  Believe it or not I never really felt that Notre Dame would lose control of this one.  Overall it was a fine final salute to a crappy, somewhat historic stadium that at this moment is probably being hit by its first few wrecking balls.

Texas 40, Texas A&M 29

Familiarity matters, and Texas had no clue how to counter the Aggies' option attack.  I think the Texas offensive coaches were more to blame in this one, as Vince Young looked completely lost.  Whatever, they won and now get the opportunity to slaughter tragic Colorado this coming weekend.

LSU 19, Arkansas 17

Someone keeps lecturing me about needing to have LSU much higher in my rankings.  Maybe there's something to be said for my weariness?

Arizona State 23, Arizona 20

Ugly, as always.  ASU is now bowl eligible, but will Dirk Koetter still be their coach at bowl time?

Nebraska 30, Colorado 3

This is a basic admission that the Buffs don't want to play Texas.

Wisconsin 41, Hawai'i 24

Aloha means hello and goodbye.  Barry Alvarez has had quite a career.  It's been fun to witness Wisky's resurrection. 

Saturday
Nov262005

Week thirteen Saturday live thread

Here's the schedule, feel free to comment below.

It looks like the good games are all in the midafternoon slot (Florida-Florida State, Notre Dame-Stanford, etc.). 

Thursday
Nov242005

Week thirteen weekend thoughts

I'll be brief since its already so late in the week.

Friday's games

Texas @ Texas A&M

The Aggies are a mess, Texas is rolling.  Mack Brown probably wants to give his quarterback one last Heisman statement.  Where do you think this is going?  That's right, Texas wins big again.

Arkansas @ LSU

It's a bit hard to get a bead on LSU at times this year, which tells me they're not being handled well by the coaches.  That said, they continue to win a lot more than they lose.  Arkansas is starting to come around, although they've been just as jumpy.  That said, I fully expect a late-season SEC "let's not lose this one" contest.  LSU is probably a little better than the Hawgs, having finished off 'Bama where Arkansas couldn't put a gimpy Georgia away.  Go with LSU here.

Arizona @ Arizona State

This thing's a lot more heated than people realize.  Recent history suggests an upset, but both teams are on nearly equal footing right about now.  So instead I'll predict a mess.  Both young quarterbacks have been fairly adequate and look to be fine passers.  ASU's a little more unbalanced offensively and softer on defense, so I guess that makes them the underdog.  Their schedule performance relative to Arizona paints a different picture, however.  I'm going with the SunDevils here.

Nebraska @ Colorado

Where's Chris Brown? The more important question is, do the Buffaloes want to win this one and have a second opportunity for slaughter before Texas?  Sure, why not.  Buffaloes win here.

Wisconsin @ Hawai'i

Barry Alvarez is a smart guy, I must say.  The man knows how to take his cold weather boys to the warm places in cold season (Rose Bowls, Hawai'i)  However, his is a bit of a trap game because many big name road teams enjoy their surroundings a little too well (see Las Vegas Bowl) and embarrass themselves on the Islands.  Hawai'i's passing game may be a bit tricky at times for the Badgers, but I think Wisconsin will score so many points that it won't matter.  Badgers win here.

Saturday's games:

Tennessee @ Kentucky

Say it ain't so?  As bad as the Vols have been, Kentucky needs a lot to outclass them.  I don't see that happening.

Virginia @ Miami

The 'Canes were embarrassed last weekend.  They'll take it out on the Cavaliers.

Florida State @ Florida

The 'Noles should have trouble offensively here.  As uneven as the Gators have been, they do have their act together for the most part and just aren't producing.  This is my way of saying I'm going with the Gators.

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech

The Hokies should have another 45-14 type win.

Notre Dame @ Stanford

This one might be competitive for a while.  I respect Walt Harris as a coach, but he's still outclassed here.  He might lose, but not before softening Notre Dame's pass defenses up a bit just in time for their bowl opponent to study some film.

Georgia @ Georgia Tech

This is fairly intriguing.  The national media is abuzz about the Tech DC and his shutdown of Miami last week (and early season offerings against Auburn and a few others).  However, I think Tech's offense is pretty lame and Georgia should scrap to a victory. 

Thursday
Nov242005

Week thirteen schedule

Sadly we're thirteen weeks into the season.

Out of fourteen.

Here's the post-thanskgiving schedule from CFR.  Today (Friday) looks like a great day to avoid the malls and just watch football.

Saturday's not bad either.

Wednesday
Nov232005

More Fresno State followup for Bush

I guess Best Damn Sports Show is doing a flashback tonight, will have Reggie Bush and Pete Carroll on to discuss all things USC/Fresno State.  Blatant push for Bush for Heisman by the LA guys, but then, the game was so late a lot of normal college football fans really didn't get to experience it so this gets a tepid free pass from CFR.

Perusing the TV today, I noticed that FoxSports also is rebroadcasting the game (in shortened two-hour windows) at least twice tonight where I live.  There's some unsubstantiated buzz that despite the late start, The game actually earned the highest ratings ever for a FoxSports college football broadcast (see link here).

Saturday's Fresno State game was the most-watched nationally televised game in the history of Fox Sports Net. The game was seen in 2.1 million households by some 2.8 million viewers, according to Nielsen Media Research.

In Los Angeles, the game was the day's top-rated LA telecast, earning a 7.5 household rating. It was seen in 424,688 homes and beat out the No. 2 telecast by 70 percent.

Other top markets for the game: Seattle (6.6), Portland (6.5), Pittsburgh (3.1), Columbus (3.0) and Phoenix (2.8). Fox plans to follow up on the game's success tonight at 8 and 10:30 with a two-hour version of the telecast entitled Football Flashback

So, a fifth of the game's viewers were in Los Angeles, but look at some of the other media centers, word-of-mouth must have been heavy given that Pittsburgh and Columbus had such strong viewership in the sleep-deprived Eastern time zone.  Additionally, that probably translates to a lot of Heisman power for Bush in both the Midwest and Northeast Heisman voter regions.

As stated earlier, I'll have some regional analysis soon, probably just after the December 3 games played by Bush and Young. 

Monday
Nov212005

Week twelve weekend review

Rivalry weekend's over, signaling the end of the big 50-game weekends in college football.  I'm keeping myself in good spirits by listening to Christmas music and celebrating that I chose to stay awake for the entire remarkable Reggie Bush performance against Fresno State.

Virginia Tech 52, Virginia 14

I guess the Hokies are ok after the Miami loss.  It was a textbook Tech win, forcing turnovers and running enough---336 net yards---to make Vick look like a God when he had to pass.  Nice recovery.  I wonder whether Virginia will ever reach some of its heights from just two or three years ago.  They're really struggling.

Texas Tech 23, Oklahoma 21

This game was marred by a controversial call at the end.  Texas Tech is starting to wilt.

Georgia 45, Kentucky 13

The Dawgs have won the ones they're supposed to.  Oh, what could have been...

Vanderbilt 28, Tennessee 24

I'm not going to pile on.  That loss might have been good for Tennessee, it's kind of a rock-bottom moment from which to motivate them as they chart a new course.

Ohio State 25, Michigan 21

Jim Tressel > Lloyd Carr.  It's like the John Cooper bad mojo for Buckeye fans has completely reversed itself.  Few gave Michigan a chance but they almost pulled it off.  But like a lot of things with them lately, almost is often the best they can do.

Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 34

I don't really have commentary here, only wanted to post the score.

Notre Dame 34, Syracuse 10

Not the Irish's best performance, but most teams will get away with that against Syracuse.

Boise State 70, Idaho 35

This was a close game when I was watching earlier on my ESPN GamePlan.  Apparently Boise dumped 35 points on the Vandals in the 4th quarter.  Ouch!

Auburn 28, Alabama 18

Complete domination by Auburn, including 11 take-downs of 'Bama quarterback Brodie Croyle.  That's their 4th straight Iron Bowl win, and puts the Tigers in position (with an LSU loss to Arkansas) for a 5th SEC Western Division title in the last six years under Tommy Tuberville.  I know the man's a constant CFR target, but he's managed that program with skill and is either very shrewd or ridiculously lucky in some of his assistant choices lately---Gene Chizik, Al Borges and Bobby Petrino.

Penn State 31, Michigan State 22

An ugly win, but Paterno's boys were always in control of this game.

Oregon 56, Oregon State 14

A surprising outcome.  If I didn't know better I get the feeling the Ducks have played better since starting quarterback Kellen Clemens got injured.  The game was played under very heavy fog.  Very quietly, Oregon has assembled some of the best offesive skill talent in the nation, particularly in its receiving corps.

Clemson 13, South Carolina 9

Ah, the ups and downs of running a perennial loser.  Spurrier will have better days but this looks like a letdown game.

Georgia Tech 14, Miami 10

Miami's offensive woes caught up to them.  Georgia Tech deserves credit for a gutty performance and getting past the distraction of a court-mandated reinstatement of a formerly non grata player.

USC 50, Fresno State 42

Fresno followed the same script of many almost-but-couldn't USC foes such as California, Notre Dame and UCLA.  It was an amazing game played way too late into the night for those of us not in the Pacific time zone.  Oh, and some guy named Reggie Bush had some of the most amazing runs in a long time.  He finished with 296 rushing yards, second-most in USC history, and 513 all-purpose, good for second-most in NCAA history.  Heisman.

 

Saturday
Nov192005

Rivalry Week Satuday live thread

Go nuts!

Feel free to comment below.  You know the drill. 

Friday
Nov182005

Flaky pick of the week

Just got home from a little tapas dinner with family, and was discussing this weekend's game with my old man.  Take this with a serious grain of salt, he was just having fun but we thought I should add it to the site: Michigan State over Penn State 10-7.  Big upset, no?

You heard it here first, heh.  It's all in good humor.

I'll be back bright and early on here to load the Saturday live thread. 

Thursday
Nov172005

Week twelve weekend thoughts

Virginia Tech @ Virginia

How will the Hokies respond after a crushing defeat to Miami and a week off to either pout or get proactive?  Their pattern of late-season collapses in recent years appeared to finally be over after a fine finish last year.  But maybe that was an aberration, thanks to the poise of veteran quarterback Bryan Randall.  Although UVA's middling, Al Groh would love to quiet some locals and take care of this game.  However, the Hokies should win unless the train is officially off the tracks.

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech

The Sooners are rolling, the Red Raiders are reeling.  Oklahoma appears to have remedied their early season shakiness, although they are yet to play anywhere near the level of previous Oklahoma squads.  The Sooners have owned Texas Tech and will continue to do so, knocking the Red Raiders outside of the top 25.

Ohio State @ Michigan

Last year, Ohio State routed Michigan, embarrassing the favored Wolverines before their trip to the Rose Bowl.  This year, Ohio State is the favorite and Michigan is looking for some measure of revenge and nice ending to a tumultuous regular season.  However, I will defer to much of what regular commenter Solon says, and proclaim a Buckeye victory.

Duke @ North Carolina

Oh God, help us!  It's NCAA basketball season again.  I catch up on a lot of reading from January to March.  Anyway.

Syracuse @ Notre Dame

Wow the Orange have been terrible this year.  That happens sometimes with new coaches.  Othertimes, teams play their way into CFR's top 5, like Notre Dame.  We could have a snowy afternoon in South Bend for this one, which would be fun TV watching.  The Irish are an easy pick here.

Utah @ BYU

ESPN GameDay came here last year on Rivalry weekend.  Give that Urban Meyer guy some credit.

Alabama @ Auburn

Ahhhh the Iron Bowl.  Last year's game was dicey at times for the undefeated Tigers as they hung on against an inept Alabama offense.  Alabama's playing about the same this year, although Kenneth Darby and Brodie Croyle are actually healthy for this one.  Auburn's not as good, but somehow I think they'll come out with an even bigger win than last year.

Penn State @ Michigan State

The Nittany Lions would normally be a big favorite for CFR here, especially given the Spartans' El Foldo act.  However, funny things happen in East Lansing, which makes me nervous.  That said, I think the Spartans are just too down and should more or less get rolled here.

Oregon State @ Oregon

The Civil War, with a battlefield thousands of miles to the northwest.  Oregon's had a fine year but are upset candidates if the Leaf/Dixon combo at quarterback don't perform.  The home atmosphere and the shot at a 1-loss season should be enough to overcome a bad Beavers team.

Clemson @ South Carolina

Both teams are still celebrating wins over Florida and Florida State last weekend.  South Carolina should have a decided edge in coaching and confidence here.  The rowdy home crowd should put them over the top.

Fresno State @ USC

The Trojans have a lot to play for, returning for a tough final home stretch.  Reggie Bush could use a little Heisman help, and the Trojans could use a big win to ease some doubters.  Fresno State is a tough squad but the Trojans should win comfortably. 

Thursday
Nov172005

Week Twelve Schedule-Rivalry Week

CFR's "This Week's Games" schedule is updated for week twelve with appropriate televised listings.  You can start your Saturday morning with ESPN GameDay televised live from East Lansing, Michigan for the Michigan State/Penn State game.
Wednesday
Nov162005

Justifying the rankings

I see this week SI's Stewart Mandel is taking some of the same rounds of questioning about his rankings that I've faced doing my rankings.

Mandel's replies are pretty interesting and instructive.  Be sure and read the entire thing.

Some of the best back-and-forths:

 

Help me understand something. Notre Dame continues to be ranked ahead of such one-loss teams as Alabama, Virginia Tech and Oregon. Why?

 


--Jonathan, Baton Rouge, La.

Probably because they're playing better than those teams. The Tide's offense has gone in the toilet, the Ducks have barely survived their two games since losing starting quarterback Kellen Clemens and the last time we saw the Hokies, they were on the wrong end of a 27-7 score. If you'd prefer, I could start ranking teams in strict order of their records, in which case I'll start letting our interns fill out my ballot each week.

 

 

Classic. Who... Is... Best...? You go first. Who... Is... Next...? You go after them.

 

Notre Dame lost to Michigan State (5-5, 2-5 in the Big Ten). How on earth can the Irish be ranked as high as they are, and why doesn't anyone ever bring that up? It's like people forgot that game.

 


--Kyle, Houston

You know what's interesting? Despite Miami moving up to No. 3 in the BCS standings this week -- a development that has far more potential ramifications than whether Notre Dame is sixth or ninth -- I haven't heard a single person say, "Hey, have you people forgotten that the 'Canes lost to a Florida State team that got blown out by Clemson?" I'd imagine that's because most people generally accept the notion that Miami has gotten significantly better since that game, while the 'Noles have regressed. That's pretty much how a season works -- some teams evolve from the first game to the last game, others devolve.

But apparently, judging by my e-mail, that's not the case with Notre Dame and Michigan State. Apparently the Irish are exactly the same team today that they were two months ago, and apparently the Spartans were just as bad when they started 4-0 and were scoring 49 points per game on people than they are now that they've lost five of six and couldn't crack 20 on Minnesota. I suppose it's not remotely possible that, say, the Irish defense is substantially more comfortable after nine games under a new coaching staff than it was after two, or that the more games the Spartans played, the more scouting opportunities opposing defensive coordinators had to figure out their spread offense. I'm not trying to make excuses for what was clearly a bad loss; I just feel that a game played on Sept. 17 has little-to-no-bearing on how a team is playing on Nov. 17.

Thank you! Remember the whole twisty Michigan/Michigan State/Notre Dame pretzel earlier this year? Things have resolved themselves nicely, now haven't they?

So much confusion is created because fans have this idea that teams should be ranked by order of loss and schedule strength and conference strength. Problem is, those inputs don't give much weight to determining just how good a team is, and what its real world value is. We're obsessed with trying as hard as possible to keep human factors out of our determinations, when the greatest tool available in ranking teams is not in their numbers or records, but in what our eyes see and what our brains process. Let people rank teams, let them get it right, even if mistakes are made. The current agnostic approach is causing such ridiculous confusion that when someone like Mandel comes along with half a mind to put some observation and thought into his rankings, people flip out.

You know, he may end up being wrong, but at least he made better use of the available tools in making his rankings. 

Tuesday
Nov152005

Rivalry

Of many things to like about college football, the natural rivalries that have developed are among the best.  Michigan and Ohio State.  Alabama and Auburn.  Texas and Oklahoma.  USC and UCLA.  Oregon State and Oregon.  Miami and Florida State.  We as fans get caught up in the tension between schools, between people who share a lot in common except their colors on a particular Saturday.

A lot of rivalry games are set for this and the following weekends, and I can't help but be excited.

That said, two rivalries stand out to me as almost comical.  Those are the ill feelings between Auburn and Alabama and USC and UCLA.

Most rivalries have both schools on some kind of level ground.  That is, Michigan fans can make a lot of claims that they're the best, but so can Ohio State fans.  But with these two specific rivalries, there's a certain big brother/little brother feel to them that cracks me up.  Not surprisingly, USC and Alabama play the big brother roles.  They've had a lot more success over the years, have owned the rivalries and their fans approach the rivalry a little different than those on the other side.

For simple proof, I present to you two blogs, one by a USC fan and the other by UCLA fans.  The USC fan is his usual cool cucumber, relaxed about his place in the world and oblivious to the presence of his rival.  The UCLA fan, however, has worked himself into some kind of lather, absolutely frothing three whole weeks before the game against his big brother.  This stuff is hilarious.  I wish I could find a similar example between Auburn and Alabama blogs, but have yet to notice it.  I've talked to Auburn and Alabama fans before and I can tell you it's much the same on their end.  It's like to one side they're just happy with the obligatory win just to shut the other guys up, and on the other side their whole existence is built into the outcome.  I don't think these are exactly the healthiest or more traditional rivalries around, but while they exist I remain entertained.

Getting back to the other rivalries, we have a handful of the very best this weekend, including Ohio State/Michigan and the aforementioned Auburn/Alabama "Iron Bowl" to go along with "The Big Game" between Stanford and California, Clemson and South Carolina, Oregon and Oregon State's "Civil War", and several other intriguing instate matchups.  Good times, and certain to provide a few upsets.

 

Tuesday
Nov152005

Week 12 weekend thoughts

Belatedly.

West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 0

Some programs just know how to one thing and do it well.  West Virginia can run the ball.  They're a Minnesota-lite.

Fresno State 27, Boise State 7

The Bulldogs predictably trounced Boise and are now frothing for this weekend's opportunity against USC.  What's the over/under on the number of "worldbeater" references in the media this week?

Louisville 56, Rutgers 5

Brian Brohm just had one of those nights throwing the ball.  That guy could play for a handful of NFL teams right now.  Michael Bush is hurt and it may affect Louisville down the road.  For now, they're finding ways to compensate.

Pittsburgh 24, Connecticut 0

After their rough start, who would have predicted Pitt would pitch a shutout?

Clemson 35, Florida State 14

Every time Tommy's in trouble, Dad comes to town and folds.  Talent is talent, and don't I love it, but coaching matters and FSU could use a little of it.

Oklahoma 36, Texas A&M 30

The Big Twelve is a mess.  This is easily America's sorriest conference.

Minnesota 41, Michigan State 18

When people ask Notre Dame about their loss to Michigan State, I can't help but feel sorry for them and envision them having some "he's not the man I married" type reply about the Jekyl and Hyde act the Spartans have put on.

Michigan 41, Indiana 14

Nevermind, the Wolverines are ready for Ohio State.  Freshman back Kevin Grady had a nifty run through a pile of defenders for a touchdown.

Ohio State 48, Northwestern 7

Impressive dismantling of the Wildcats.  The Big Ten has had a nice resurrection job since the week three collapse.  Anyone notice Northwestern's scripted opening scoring drive?  You heard about those kinds of things here, first, many months ago.

South Carolina 30, Florida 22

I think Chris Leak's days as a starting quarterback at Florida are numbered.  Urban Meyers' last drive stall tactics signaled a complete lack of faith in the personnel operating the offense.  I remember watching USC sit on the ball in the early days of the Chow offense, as well.  They had to go out and recruit guys like Mike Williams and durable backs like Hershel Dennis and Michigan transfer Justin Fargas before things began to get better as personnel began to match the offense.  This game was 20-19 before an odd broken play where two Florida defensive backs whiffed on an easy tackle of Gamecock receiver Sidney Rice, catapulting him down the sidelines for a long gain inside the Florida five yard line.

Notre Dame 42, Navy 21

Navy tried sitting on the ball.  The Irish still scored lots of points.  Not the Irish's best day, but it's obvious they're up to something really good.

Oklahoma State 24, Texas Tech 17

See: Oklahoma/Texas A&M

Tennessee 20, Memphis 16

1998 seems so very long ago.  I wonder how good these Vols would be with Marcus Outzen at quarterback?  Memphis' great back DeAngelo Williams didn't even suit up for this game.

Nebraska 27, Kansas State 25

See: Oklahoma/Texas A&M; Oklahoma State/Texas Tech

Kentucky 48, Vanderbilt 43

Eat crow CFR!  Look, offense!  In the SEC!

Tulsa 45, East Carolina 13

I remember watching Tulsa opening week against Minnesota.  They were horrible.  I didn't think they'd win a game all year.  I don't know what happened, but this team is winning, and not just a little, but a lot.  They've now beaten North Texas 54-2, Memphis 37-31, Southern Mississippi 34-17, Rice 41-21, SMU 20-13, and East Carolina 45-13.  They almost beat UTEP (a 41-38 loss) and Houston (a 30-23 loss) and weren't far from Oklahoma in week two (a 31-15 loss that was 17-15 before a disastrous final two minutes).  Who knew?!

Miami 47, Wake Forest 17

It's a 'Cane thing.

Virginia 27, Georgia Tech 17

Regular commenter Stephen Kim explained this one well recently; a lightly regarded ranked team (#24 Georgia Tech) lost to a lightly regarded team (UVA) on the fringes of the top 25.  Happens a lot.

LSU 16, Alabama 13

Is there really a difference between these two teams?  I mean, they both play not to lose.  One's more talented.  One's less prone to mistakes.  Both aren't really going anywhere, picking off middling SEC squads having off years and prey for superiors in Auburn and Georgia.  Yes I know LSU beat Auburn.  The Tigers are taking their time but are starting to look like the SEC's best or second best squad.

Iowa 20, Wisconsin 10

Not the best way for Barry Alvarez to finish up his home coaching career at Camp Randall Stadium.

Texas 66, Kansas 14

The Longhorns are feeling pretty good about themselves right about now.  Vince Young's getting away with throwing popups, and not only are they being completed, they're going for touchdowns.  Something tells me Big Twelve secondaries may be the nation's worst.

USC 35, California 10

California turned in one of the better defensive performances I've witnessed all year.  They completely checked Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith, Dominique Byrd and masterfully contained Reggie Bush.  Matt Leinart had to keep taking what the defense gave him, and that meant an impressive effort working the intermediate passing game.  LenDale White ended up being the USC star.  Joe Ayoob melted down as bad as I've seen a quarterback this year.

Washington 38, Arizona 14

The good thing about Freshmen is they get better.  Unless they're Chris Rix.

TCU 51, UNLV 3

The Horned Frogs are on a serious roll.

Iowa State 30, Colorado 16

See all those other Big Twelve entries.

UCLA 45, Arizona State 35

Believe it or not this game slowed down after halftime.  UCLA was just a little better, benefiting from some ASU turnovers.

Auburn 31, Georgia 30

This game easily could have gone either way.  It was certainly a dramatic night, and I was entertained.  What was encouraging is that both coaches climbed out of their shells at times to take some (mostly calculated) risks and let their kids play a little.  Auburn's 4th down pass was a thing of beauty, and one of the reasons I've got some stock in Brandon Cox.  D.J. Shockley made some impressive throws too, and obviously Kenny Irons ran wild against a Georgia interior that is hemorrhaging.

Oregon 34, Washington State 31

This thing was all over the place.  Oregon cannot figure out its quarterback situation.  I kind of like Brady Leaf (believe it or not), but like any Leaf he mixes in some absolutely brilliant moments with some of the dumbest throws you've ever seen.  The uncertainty at that position is just killing Oregon's ability to really show off their potential.  Anyone catch Oregon basketball coach Ernie Kent's son, Jordan, catch that 68-yard touchdown?  The kid is raw but he can fly.  He's also a track star and Oregon's first 3-sport star in forever.