Slow blogging week

I've been working on some of the site's other functions, namely adding some links here or there, having to fix one section that hasn't appeared yet and took a long time.  I'm around, just investing my time in less visible CFR pursuits.

I'm excited for this weekend.  I've been on the road for the last few so it's nice to sit down at home and go nuts with the GamePlan and other extras.  It's that time of the year where we begin to have a grasp on all the teams, what they do, how well they do it, how good their schedule compares to preseason projections, and so much more.

We're also not too far from championship weekend on the final week of the season, then the Heisman ceremony, then a brief layoff before a crazy sweep of bowl games (I love bowls!) dominate mid to late December and early January.  It's really too bad the college football season is so short.  I like baseball, but I'd gladly trade the sports' season lengths.  Baseball could use about 80 less games, and college could use a good 3-4 more.

But anyway. 

Week eleven weekend thoughts

Rambling commentary delivered on-time this week.

Boise State @ Fresno State (Thursday)

This game decides the WAC champion.  The excitement is dampened because Boise State has not been the contender some (ahem, CFR) expected it would be.  Both teams have more or less crushed conference peers this season, though.  Fresno's put together a nice season and is a field goal's loss at Oregon away from being undefeated.  The easy choice is Fresno here as Boise's not home and not particularly good.

Northwestern @ Ohio State

The Buckeyes are on a major roll (since Penn State loss beat Michigan State 35-24, Indiana 41-10, Minnesota 45-31 and Illinois 40-2).  It looks like they've found a way to hide Troy Smith back there and just let him make really safe, touchdown type throws on play action.  It's working, because his passer rating is an impressive 165.1 right now.  I think the Wildcats have peaked, falling fairly easily to Michigan and almost losing to Iowa last week.  This game could resemble the NW/Penn State game where Northwestern dinks and dunks their way to a few first half scores then goes quiet for the rest of the game.  Ohio State shouldn't have a problem scoring here, as the run and pass games have found some juice against similarly soft defenses.  The Buckeyes are my choice.

Florida State @ Clemson

Bowden Bowl XXXXVIII yada yada yada.  We got it already.  Who cares?  Next.

Indiana @ Michigan

Indiana's been crushed all season by Big Ten foes.  But Michigan may be a touch distracted here in preparation for the big Ohio State tilt.  I doubt an upset has much of a shot of happening here, but Indiana's due for at least a halfway decent performance.  Think something like 27-17 Michigan.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma

Sloppy.  I miss late afternoon score breaks interrupting whatever game to bring me Adrian Peterson highlight runs.  Wherefore art thou, Adrian?  I'm going with the Sooners.  The complete derailment of the Aggies' season is something the pundits need to be examining.

Florida @ South Carolina

Yes we all know the storyline, and it's nonsense.  Save it for when Spurrier has a contending squad.  If nothing else we at least have the hope of a few offensive fireworks from the SEC with this game, but hope is hope and I'm skeptical about the reality.

Navy @ Notre Dame

Slaughter.

Baylor @ Missouri

Think the Bears will score some points on Saturday?  A third straight shutout would be horrific.

Memphis @ Tennessee

The Vols finally find a pond they can swim in.

USC @ California

I know Cal's problems, but until I see it happen, this thing will be a close game.  This one is potentially a great watch if the coaches are on.  Remember USC has not been at its best in front of hostile crowds this year (Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame) and Cal's fans are among the more rowdy you'll find if there's something to cheer for.  USC is the choice here, but it's likely another close game.

Kansas @ Texas

Slaughter.

LSU @ Alabama

Ew.  LSU has the tools to win this one, but I think Alabama prevails again.  LSU is just such a mess sometimes they'll probably make all their own mistakes and hand this one to the tide the same way Mississippi State did last week.

Arizona State @ UCLA

If only to see whether UCLA rebounds from the Arizona loss or not.  I'll go with regular commenter Stephen and go with the Sun Devils here.

Auburn @ Georgia

Auburn's starting to find their way and Georgia's middling after a loss, a quarterback injury and some time off.  This is the recipe for a close game if you ask me.  Georgia is the better football team, but you can throw that all out the window when teams decide its time for one of those boxing "clutch maneuver" matches.  I'm going with Georgia but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised by a different outcome.

Oregon @ Washington State

I'm sorry, but its hard to have faith in Oregon's backup quarterbacks.  They're still in the first year of that new offense and now working with second and third string signal callers.  Not good when you're in a late season Pac-10 road swing.  Can Oregon score enough to keep the Cougars at bay?  I have my doubts.  CFR says Washington State wins this one.  Pullman's a bad place to be in November.

The mechanics of winning a Heisman

Say what you want about either lead candidate, this certainly doesn't help Vince Young: ABC coverage map

The two teams' games are being played at the same time, and Young's mostly cornered in a region he'll clean up anyway.  He does touch some of the border south and midwest voting regions, but is mostly locked into the southwest.

Meanwhile, Bush ranges all through the western region, through much of the midwest, and into almost the entirety of the northeast.  Huge.

Plus, the energy around USC's final schedule is a little more significant, they have rivalry games against California, with all the storyline that goes with that, a game against self proclaimed world beaters Fresno State after that, then on championship weekend, a game against Rival UCLA that isn't as big as it was but remains a prominent CFB rivalry that people throughout the country will want to watch.  Meanwhile, Young has the equivalent of games against the JV squad, with Kansas, Texas A&M and the Big Twelve Championship against a Colorado team they've already crushed.

I know HP says that at this time Heisman voters are not paying attention, but however true that is, Reggie Bush is certain to gain some advantage thanks to the scheduling Gods.  I think a similar phenomena worked against Adrian Peterson last year, as he played a few meaningless final games last year against Baylor and Colorado while Matt Leinart finished up against Notre Dame and UCLA.

Keep in mind much of the final outcome boils down to how candidates perform with voters outside their own regions. 

Week 11 This Week's Games

I've updated this week's schedule.  As usual with any early list there are some TBA's out there as the networks iron out the messy details of televising a game.

This Week's Games: Week 11

It looks like ESPN College GameDay will be in Tuscaloosa for the Alabama/LSU game.  It's good for college football that Alabama gets a GameDay visit and some attention.  Unfortunately their team is a trainwreck on offense, although Kirk Herbstreit will be sure to gush about why that's alright.

What's interesting is that we have nearly a full week of games as a rare Tuesday night game is on the slate (Southern Mississippi @ Marshall, 7:30 PM Eastern on ESPN2), as well as an even more rare Sunday night game (Southern Mississippi @ Houston, 5:00 PM Eastern) that was rescheduled due to one of the hurricanes that struck the gulf coast this year.

Games that catch my eye:

• Boise State @ Fresno State-WAC championship on the line Thursday night
  
• Northwestern @ Ohio State-Both teams are playing well right now
• Indiana @ Michigan-Will the Wolverines be caught looking ahead to Ohio State?
• USC @ California-Always interesting
• LSU @ Alabama-Probably another SEC mudfest, but there's always potential for teams to play to win instead of not to lose
• Arizona State @ UCLA-Will the bruins fold or put up a fight after last week's thrashing?
• Auburn @ Georgia-Shockley's first start since injury.  Do the Bulldogs want to finish strong?  Is Auburn peaking at the right time?

CFR week ten top teams list

Week Ten Top Teams List (11/07/2005):

1. USC-Remember when they kept falling behind early in games?  The reverse is happening now.  Every season under coach Carroll, USC has been able to improve upon themselves as the season rolled along.  Rough final schedule stretch will get them ready for a big bowl game.
   
2. Texas-On Monday morning mailed thank you cards to Miami.  "The Narrative" looks prophetic right about now.  Right now their schedule looks like Ohio State and the 11 nobodies.  They're still really good, schedule be damned.
   
3. Notre Dame-The Irish remind me of the 2002 USC team; two early losses, then realized they're great, and finished exceedingly strong.
4. Georgia-The quarterback's back.  Let's see how they weather their remaining schedule.
5. Miami-A very shaky fifth here.  Offense needs help, but took advantage of most of their opportunities and forced Marcus Vick into a Zabransky-like performance.
6. Virginia Tech-Not as bad as they played.  Will probably fall after confidence was shaken and season ruined.  That's how most CFB teams respond to similar predicaments, at least.
7. Penn State-Defense looks like it's for real, at least against opponents who know how to run.  Better than expected on offense, find ways to score.

Booted:

• California-Tough loss in overtime on the road in bad weather at a crazy venue.  Joe Ayoob's on-the-job training hasn't been so smooth.
  

Others:

• Alabama-They keep winning, but they're leaving too much to chance.
• Ohio State-Really catching stride.  Ted Ginn has been unleashed.
• Louisville-Quietly winning.
• UCLA-Probably on their way off the list after getting shelled.  Waiting to see how they respond.  Still have a fine offense.
• Oregon-Beat a pretty good team with their backup quarterback.  Only loss is to USC. 

Week ten review

Louisville 42, Pittsburgh 20

Louisville's offense just rolls along, this time netting four field goals to cover for some Pitt defensive stops on lengthy drives.

South Florida 45, Rutgers 31

The Bulls love playing the spoiler, don't they?

North Carolina 16, Boston College 14

The 'Heels are a resilient group, holding at 4-4 through a pretty murderous schedule so far.  As usual, Boston College is starting to fold late.

Northwestern 28, Iowa 27

Thanks to luck and some late-game dramatics, Northwestern came back for the win.  This is the first time I've seen them down so big early and rebound from the deficit.  Perhaps they're a little more resilient than even I give them credit for.

Purdue 28, Michigan State 21

El Foldo is complete for the Spartans.  I don't know whether to praise Purdue for finally getting a Big Ten win, or to scold them for playing even worse than I thought they'd play this year.

South Carolina 14, Arkansas 10

It wasn't pretty, but the 'Cocks are bowl eligible now.  Arkansas has basically settled on a frosh quarterback and sneaky Darren McFadden for their backfield.  If Houston Nutt's fired, his replacement will be pretty happy with the offensive talent left behind.

Texas 62, Baylor 0

Props for the shutout.  It's just too easy right now for the 'Horns.

Auburn 49, Kentucky 27

A bit of an "excuse-me" performance for the Auburn defense, but their offense is improving as the running back situation has settled.

Kansas 40, Nebraska 15

Well, that drought's over.  Yes, Virginia, Nebraska is that bad.

Georgia Tech 30, Wake Forest 17

Don't look now, but Tech's 6-2.

Notre Dame 41, Tennessee 21

Irish roared out early, let the Vols back in, then swiftly slammed the door again.  Cruel.

North Carolina State 20, Florida State 15

FSU=paper tigers.  Nice save job by NC State coach Chuck Amato.

Alabama 17, Mississippi State 0

Props for the shutout, but what the hell?

Penn State 35, Wisconsin 14

The Nittany Lions sure look like the Big Ten's best.  A very surprising performance this year.  The offense is junk, but they find ways to score and that's more than can be said for Alabama.

Oregon 27, California 20 (OT)

If you're a road favorite, never play for OT.  It's bad.  Surprising effort from Oregon.  They need serious help at quarterback, but their only loss right now is to USC.

Ohio State 40, Illinois 2

Rollin'...

Arizona 52, UCLA 14

Never saw this coming.  Give me some points for letting you in on Willie Tuitama a few weeks before the national press though!  Anyway, I should have known better, with all the classic collapse jobs UCLA's performed throughout their history.

Texas Tech 56, Texas A&M 17

Yeah...Texas is going to roll through the remaining schedule.

Florida 49, Vanderbilt 42 (2 OT)

The offense comes alive!  The defense almost completely collapses late!  Fits and starts for the first-year coach.

Miami 27, Virginia Tech 7

Didn't see this one coming, either.  Tech has a resilient offense but Vick went into Zabransky mode and never gave his teammates a shot against a very shaky Miami offensive unit.  Where has that kind of effort been from Miami the last 2-3 years?  I don't think we'll see it again for another 2-3.

LSU 24, Appalachian State 0

Ladies and gentlemen, the nation's #6 team, according to the polls.

Fresno State 45, San Jose State 7

Gearing up for the USC game in two weeks.

USC 51, Stanford 21

As impressive as Texas was, this thing was 44-7 at half.  Stanford starters beat the USC second and third string 14-7 in the second half.  Anyone catch that Reggie Bush touchdown run?  Dude is so fast.  Or that Dwayne Jarrett touchdown?  He deserves the Biletnikoff award (65 rec, 964 yards, 14.8 avg, 14 TD with three regular season games to go).

Week ten live thread

Have at it.

Check CFR's schedule for a listing of the games and times, and feel free to report back and vent on whatever strikes you.

Be sure and catch up on any of this week's CFR reading, as well.  The coach fight thread below may be of interest if you're bored.

Games of note:

• Texas @ Baylor
• Tennessee @ Notre Dame
• Wisconsin @ Penn State
• Miami @ Virginia Tech
• Stanford @ USC 

Enjoy your Saturday! 

Is it week ten already?

This season's just flying by, sadly.

So far it's been pretty darn fun, though.  The top three teams have not changed much, but it's fascinating to witness all the other teams go through all their ups and downs.  This weekend should be amongst the best this year with several conference races coming into play.

We're now just a few weeks away from the Heisman ceremony as well.  It should be a tight and dramatic finish between Reggie Bush, Vince Young, and possible Matt Leinart. 

This week's games Week Ten is up

I've updated the schedule.  It appears ABC isn't doing the early (12 Eastern) broadcasts, or hasn't released their schedule on that yet.  ESPN GameDay will be in Blacksburg, VA for the Miami/Virginia Tech game.

Let me know if there are any errors or anything needs to be updated.

• This Week's Games 

CFR week nine top teams list

Week Nine Top Teams List (11/02/2005):

1. USC-Crushed a very good WSU offense, and also put up 55 points for show.  Remaining slate fairly tough with games against Stanford (who almost beat them last year and on a bit of a roll), California (who always play the Trojans close and own the last victory of any opponent), Fresno State (quietly having a fine season and thrive in the world beaters role) and rival UCLA (who also almost beat them last year).
2. Virginia Tech-Made it look easy against Boston College.  Second half defensive dominance becoming the routine.
3. Texas-They were down 28-9, so what?  It was obvious they'd come back in a big way.  I told someone when it was halftime they'd score 49 straight.  I was almost right.
4. Notre Dame-That Michigan State loss sure hurts right about now.
5. UCLA-Comeback act is impressive, if annoying.  Get this, they have three weeks to prepare for USC, but the game's in the Coliseum so at least there won't be any long grass stunts and powder blue uniforms.
6. Georgia-Just not the same team without Shockley.  Would probably rank higher on here with a little more offensive gumption from the coaches.  Run D is starting to look suspect.  Still better than anything else out there.

Others:

• Alabama-Four touchdown passes last weekend... is that a school record?
• Miami-Ho hum.  Let's see if they wake up against Virginia Tech this weekend.
• Louisville-Brian Brohm is now #1 nationally in passing efficiency, but all anybody wants to talk about is that Dumerville guy.  Can't blame them, he's really good.
• California-My friend HP has it right; when 6-2 at a place like Cal is a disappointment, things are going pretty well.
• Ohio State-Surging, but has the run defense been exposed or is it a one-week blip?
• Penn State-Why not?  Taking command of winnable games, like OSU.  Nothing wrong with having the fortitude and the aptitude to swiftly put inferiors away.

Week nine weekend review

• Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 10

The Hokies made that one look easy.  They play all phases of the game well, although some not so spectacularly.  One thing they're doing really well right now is playing field position ball.  They force a lot of early possession 3-and-outs and get the ball back for more manageable 60 and 70 yard scoring drives, kick off, get another stop and do it again.  That kind of football is demoralizing.

• North Carolina State 21, Southern Miss 17

The Wolfpack inserted a new starter at quarterback, and he lagged.  But they also found their new starting tailback in frosh Andre Brown, who had 248 yards on the day.  So much for superfrosh Toney Baker.  'Pack coach Chuck Amato lives to see another day.

• Miami 34, North Carolina 16

The 'Canes, playing in throwbacks, played like the ancient Miami teams for a half before turning things around and dominating the latter part of the game.  Tyrone Moss had a big game, with nearly 200 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Kyle Wright threw three picks in just 18 attempts and was pretty ineffective.  They really haven't gotten it together this year, but they get a shot at Virginia Tech this weekend to show some life.

• Oklahoma 31, Nebraska 24

The Sooners had a big early lead here that they coughed up, but still came out with the win.  Adrian Peterson ran pretty well, and Rhett Bomar is starting to look at least decently comfortable at quarterback.  It looks like Nebraska has no clue on offense unless they go to the basics and their scripted scoring drives.

• Ohio State 45, Minnesota 31

Here comes the fall for Minnesota.  They played a gutty game, but can't defend OSU's modest offense.  Ted Ginn went nuts on special teams on a day where the Buckeyes' defense had a really bad day.

• Auburn 27, Mississippi 3

The Tigers shut down Ole Miss' offense and clawed their way to a few scores against the tough Rebel defense.

• Texas Tech 28, Baylor 0

The Bears were a game opponent until early in the fourth quarter (down just 6-0), unable to muster any kind of scoring to match the Red Raiders' pedestrian effort.

• Alabama 35, Utah State 3

Now Watergate does not bother me, does your conscience bother you?  Sweet Home Alabama...

• Florida State 35, Maryland 27

Sniffed these Seminoles out before the season even started.  They're alright, but definitely not great.  Survived your typical ACC scare.

• Florida 14, Georgia 10

Bleh...  I hate games like this because its really hard to tell who was better.  It's usually just two teams going home, one happy, the other disappointed.  The Gators were certainly more effective on offense, but really didn't try to distance themselves from the Gators given their advantage.  Gotta love offenses driven by fear like that.  Anyway, UGA's championship hopes are over.  I think they miss Shockley pretty bad.

• Penn State 33, Purdue 15

The Lions pounded Purdue on the ground and pulled away in the second half.  It's a nice win, though, as they are clearing the midlevel Big Ten hurdles such as Purdue and Northwestern in their quest for a conference crown.

• USC 55, Washington State 13

Easy win for USC, whose defense is swiftly fixing itself.  This game might be the start of another one of their fabled dominating end-year runs.

• Arizona 29, Oregon State 27

True frosh QB Willie Tuitama was shaky, but still impressed Wildcat coaches and observers.  Good call, CFR.

• UCLA 30, Stanford 27 (OT)

The comeback was predictable.  I kind of called this one, too, as Stanford jumped to a nice lead before UCLA righted itself and went about overcoming the deficit.

• Michigan 33, Northwestern 17

The Wolverines jumped out early and the Wildcats couldn't overcome the early deficit.  Another good call.

• Texas 47, Oklahoma State 28

A predictable comeback here.  Vince Young went crazy and the game was over at 28-19 even though the 'Horns were still down.  Thing is, the Longhorns have now shown their hand with comebacks---it's Vince Young or nothing as they didn't get anything going on the ground or air until he had that big carry.  I'm sure USC and VT's coaches both noticed as much and have plans ready on how to manage.

• South Carolina 16, Tennessee 15

Yeah, defense is everything... except when you have a junky offense!  The Vols' season was over midway through their opener against UAB.  They looked like crap then, they look like crap now.  When will we start to get it right earlier in the season and sniff teams like this out farther in advance instead of going along with this established power gets the benefit of the doubt charade?

Week nine Saturday live thread

Talk amongst yourselves...

• Oklahoma/Nebraska
• USC/WSU & Texas/Oklahoma State, and aftermath of VT/B.C.
• Georgia/Florida, sans Shockley
• Michigan/Northwestern
• Whatever else is on your mind
  

Cheers!

Week nine weekend thoughts

Quick comments, as always.  We'll save the in-depth stat and trend analysis for another time.

Miami should crush North Carolina.  They're not really doing anything too impressive, but they're a fairly confident squad.  The one question is whether they're looking past this game to their matchup with Virginia Tech.  I kind of think so, which may muddy the waters a bit here.  Kyle Wright's hand is also starting to heal.

Ohio State should dominate Minnesota.  It's this time of the year that Minnesota tends to fold things up under coach Mason.  The Buckeyes have two straight nice wins behind them and would really like a third as they gear up for games against Northwestern and Michigan.

Will Southern Miss/N.C. State mark the end of the Chuck Amato era?  Perhaps.  A mutinous home crowd may dampen player enthusiasm a bit.  It might've been better had they gone on the road.  I still think they'll win this one, but if they lose this is one of those games where people look back and say "here is where the coach got fired".

Oklahoma at Nebraska is interesting if for no other reason, we can study which team is more of an on field mess.  I hunch Oklahoma's conscientiously written this year off and are building towards some kind of foundation next year.  That leaves them particularly weak right now, but also sets themselves up for better down the road success.  At some point Rhett Bomar is bound to have a really nice game, given all that he's weathered this year.  The Huskers' D has been solid for the most part, but who knows, maybe this is one of their bad games.

I've been surprised with how quickly Mississippi coach Ed Orgeron has adapted to his SEC environment.  His teams play that muddy dogfight type of game we expect out of the rest of the conference.  Their back is pretty nifty, but the offense remains a mess.  Given Auburn's struggles against decent competition this year, I'll give them a slight nod here if just because Mississippi hasn't shown they can beat anyone modestly better than themselves.  I could see an upset, though.

Alabama should clean Utah State's clock in a "feel better for themselves" type game.  This will, of course, ratchet up false confidence in the Bama offense throughout the fan base.

USC finally gets a home game against perennial homecoming foe Washington State.  The Cougars' offense has looked plenty alive the last few weekends, but this might be their letdown game.  It also looks like the USC defense might be starting to rebound after a ton of tough injuries, particularly to the secondary.  I look for USC to score a ton of points and surrender a fair amount.  In other words, something similar to last weekend's game against Washington.

Georgia/Florida is the game on everybody's mind.  This one's pretty hard to predict, particularly because it's hard to tell who has the mental edge.  Just last year, Georgia finally overcame a host of Florida victories in this series, but at the same time, one game does not a newfound dominance make.  Not having D.J. Shockley back there certainly hurts against a pretty good Gator defense.  That said, I have yet to witness Florida do anything on offense against a good defense this year.  I hunch they won't be able to have fixed the offense by this weekend or even the end of the year.  That's an offseason task that may require changing quarterbacks and adding another class of more complimentary recruits, and chasing away a few remaining non-believers.  I'm going with the Dawgs here, they appear to be a more competent team, and have so far played to the level of competition this year.

Penn State should crush Purdue.  The Boilers have issues this year, Penn State doesn't (aside from their up-down quarterback).

Arizona at Oregon State is interesting only because the Wildcats have named true freshman Willie Tuitama their starting quarterback.  He's a former Elite 11 participant and apparently has beaten out former starter Richard Kovalchek for the remainder of the season.  He's probably going to look like crap, but once in a while if a team changes quarterbacks enough they accidentally happen upon a good one.  Elite 11 credentials don't hurt.

UCLA heads to the Farm to face a surging Stanford.  Are the Cardinal for real?  Probably not, but Walt Harris is a very good coach, knows quarterbacks, and seems like a really good fit in the Pac-10.  Thing is, Stanford can't run the ball (statue-like QB Trent Edwards has been their leading rusher of late), minimizing their ability to exploit UCLA's big weakness in run defense.  Weird stuff happens in that eerily quiet stadium sometimes, so you never know.  However, I expect UCLA to win after a rough start as Stanford tries to unload the entirety of their offense in an attempt to stun the visitors.

Texas is going to pick on Oklahoma State.  OSU coach Mike Gundy's got himself quite a mess so far.

Hmm... Michigan or Northwestern?  The Northwestern D is terrible, but they sure know how to run and pass on the other side.  Michigan isn't so hot on D, either.  My initial reaction was that this would be a big win for Michigan, but they've been so inconsistent the whole year, while Northwestern's only picking up more and more confidence.  If Michigan can score early and often (think MSU game), they should pull away here, but if not, they're in trouble.  As it stands, I'm going with Northwestern.  Basanez and Sutton should put on a clinic and Michigan might just shoot itself in the foot enough on offense to give the Wilcats the necessary breathing room to win.

That's all, nothing too dramatic this weekend should happen.  Stay safe and enjoy the games. 

The myth of records, and being undefeated

Is being undefeated the standard by which we judge championship teams now in college football?  If it is, I think we're being a bit strict with our rules.  In my eyes, undefeated seasons don't happen in a vacuum.  Teams have to be very good, but they also have to be very lucky.

Look at USC last year.  They survived a last-minute type scares against Stanford and California.  Or look no further than the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes, who must have set some kind of record for close escapes.  Rarely is a schedule so light that a good team can skate right through without several scares (Texas 2005 aside).  Sometimes schedules are set up in such a way that a very good team often can't finish undefeated, yet some other team with a little lighter slate and a little better luck earns the spotless record.

But if that one or two loss team appears to be better, why are they not treated as better.  There's some kind of reflex in all of us to say "but, team X is undefeated!" in response.  I understand that, but sometimes that reflex is wrong.

This argument doesn't even have to be about undefeateds, but it can be about how we regard all teams.  So often the polls just slot teams by loss.  Is that accurate?  I'm not always so sure.  This week I have Notre Dame, they of two losses, at number four in my rankings, ahead of undefeateds Georgia and UCLA (as well as Alabama and one loss Miami).  I think Notre Dame's simply better than those teams, but a rough early slate that saw them barely lose to a hot Michigan State offense and a juggernaut USC team by the narrowest of Margins has them with two losses.  But I see beyond that.  I think their team found itself and as they currently stand, I think they'd beat nearly everyone ranked behind them.

In fact, the Irish remind me a bit of the 2002 USC squad.  Those Trojans lost early to Kansas State and Washington State before they really became the team they are now, and finished the season with eight straight wins.  At the end of the year there was very little doubt in my mind they wouldn't have beaten both Miami and Ohio State.  But in fact, they finished just #4 in the polls and BCS.  That situation made me realize that how we have been going about this ranking process is egregiously flawed.

At the bottom of it, I think its because there are conflicting demands placed on us as to how we should view success in college football.  On the one hand, we want to be as reasonably accurate as possible, and earnestly take into account all the factors that go into a team's season, from player health, coaching, schedule, rivalries and a host of other things.  But another demand is to consider the season as the be-all, end-all, and knock teams for losses, because we don't have a playoff.  That is to say, using the NFL as comparison, that whereas when an NFL team loses, its season isn't over, with a college team, they can forget about the big prize at the end of the season.

I guess I'm arguing that we should maybe slow things down and recognize teams for their inherent worth, and judge them as such.  Maybe college football's Patriots lost a game somewhere this year.  Shouldn't we still recognize such a hypothetical team as being of that quality?  This is a hypothetical, of course, as I don't think this year's "Patriot" comparison (USC) has lost a game, but if that were to happen to USC, or someone down the road, I'd hope that we might get it right and still recognize such a team as a contender.

It did in fact happen in 2003 when USC lost to California, but only through a similar fate happening to Oklahoma and LSU in their seasons, did USC even have a chance at being considered championship worthy.  To me this is an egregious reflection on how badly we've gotten in determining a team's worth of late, to nearly leave that kind of team out in the cold because what appeared to be at least one, if not two inferior teams ahead of it had the fortune of surviving their entire schedule.

Taking this model, and applying it to the real world, I offer you this: right now, as I see it, and unless things change fundamentally for these teams, I'm pretty content with going USC 1, VT 2, Texas 3.  That's just how I view things, right or wrong.  If Texas had lost last weekend, I'm not sure I would have moved them down.  I'd obviously have had to observe how the game played out and if something fundamentally wrong with them had occurred that had not been there before.  If not, I'd very likely have kept my ranking as such.  The same goes for USC and Virginia Tech.  Obviously between now and then, if that were to happen, I can change my mind, but I do my best to view these teams relative to each other, not solely in the context of their individual records, which can be deceptive. 

This plays into other things that concern me, namely schedules.  I'll get into that later, but to be brief on here, I think its funny when people talk about Texas and their weak record.  Normally, I'm a big proponent of difficult out-of-conference schedules.  I think it shows a commitment by an athletic department by having a serious OOC slate to expose its team to different situations and not just duck teams so that their program has a shot at a sneaky undefeated schedule.  But, sometimes soft schedules will damn a team, as may happen to Texas this year.  I think out of fear people rank teams with similar records by who they have played.  This is a flawed approach, because it takes no interest in the fundamental strength of each team compared to the other.  Schedules allow us to see how teams react to various kinds of opponents, their styles of play, their talent, their coaching, and how a team plays on the road.  But judging a team solely on its schedule is particularly flawed.

I happen to think Texas is the third best team behind Virginia Tech right now, but its not because of their schedule.  I trust my eyes in observing their games, and the things I've learned about football over the years, to make that conclusion.  However, when the final BCS rankings come out and somehow USC, Texas and Virginia Tech are all undefeated, Texas may get the heave-ho because their schedule was viewed the lightest by the computers.  This would be a mistake.  The BCS will have gotten it right, but for the wrong reasons.  It's not to dissimilar to what happened in 2003, when USC was left out of the BCS championship game because the computers felt their schedule was lightest.  In reality, USC was a much better team than the two that finished ahead of them, but because the BCS could not take into account what USC was worth, compared to what Oklahoma and LSU were worth, it got things wrong.  Just the same, when at the end of the year, if we look at those three teams and just compare schedules, we'll have gotten it wrong.

This week's games, week nine

CFR's college football schedule is now up--- This Week's Games

Weekend review

Virginia Tech 28, Maryland 9

As expected, Virginia Tech got out of the gate slow and weathered Maryland's early advances.  Marcus Vick had an off night throwing the ball, but the Tech offense showed its resilience, getting just enough on the ground, particularly on third down.  Vick also had a few long runs to break Maryland's back.  There are fast defenses (Florida State), and then there are fast defenses who can dictate the flow of game to their opponent.  VT is definitely in the latter category.

Georgia 23, Arkansas 20

It didn't look like the Dawgs were in any danger of losing to Arkansas, but they certainly never gave the impression that they had complete control of this game.  Obviously, quarterback D.J. Shockley's injury had a lot to do with this.  I thought the play of backup quarterback Joe Tereshinski was admirable, but his coaches had to lighten the playbook while he was in there and cut short any chance of putting the game out of reach.  Arkansas' frosh backs (Darren McFadden, Felix Jones) are outstanding, and had the first real good rushing game of any UGA opponent this year, combining for over 200 yards on the day at over six yards a carry.  Georgia's backs had an average day, and show how vulnerable the offense is when the quarterback either goes down or has an off day.  Its also a reflection of their lack of gamebreaking skill.  I remember reading something in the preseason saying that Georgia had the depest backfield of anyone in college football.  That's great, but on any given play, there's only one guy carrying the ball, and they have a bunch of "guys" but nobody great to really deliver a string of dominating performances.

North Carolina 7, Virginia 5

Called it, but boy was it ugly.  This is typical of the worst that can happen when teams play not to lose.  I know UNC got the win, but they won't feel very good about themselves tomorrow, a week from now or a month from now.

Northwestern 49, Michigan State 14

There are several things to take from this game.  One, Michigan State has given up.  Their implosion last week marked the end of their season, and this game is some of the fallout from that performance.  From this point onward they will underachieve, miserably finishing out their season.  I hunch MSU's string of big games against Notre Dame, Michigan and Ohio State was a bit much for their players, something my Mom would call overstimulation.

The concept goes like this: sometimes when I'm out at an amusement park or the movies or a restaurant, young children will be acting up, throwing fits for whatever reason.  In theory, they've been exposed to a lot of exciting and pleasant things and the emotional swing is a bit hard to handle when they return to some normal activity.  It's not too dissimilar to when after a vacation people sometimes become lifeless zombies, fairly disinterested in their surroundings.  For MSU, this may have been the case, particularly because they may not be as emotionally prepared or conditioned for as many big games the way players at other more successful programs are.  The buildup and in-game excitement and stress may have been just too much for the Spartans, and their play afterwards will reflect their emotional "comedown" or letdown.

But let's not forget Northwestern's role here.  The Wildcats are putting together a nice season, and have had success picking off other midlevel Big Ten foes.  The offense has continually paved their path to success, and the defense comes around once in a while to pitch in a fine performance.  For all the preseason sky-is-falling talk about the Wildcats after several prominent injuries and the transfer of their best defender, its obviously not the talent propelling this team to its wins---its their offensive scheme.  Like we've said all along, scheme matters, there's simply no other explanation for certain teams' success given their severe lack of talent and depth relative to conquered foes.

Michigan 23, Iowa 20

Iowa had control of this game, then got rattled after a late Steve Breaston catch-and-run touchdown.  Michigan took advantage of the opportunity and pushed the game to overtime and won.  It's fun to play spoiler sometimes.  The better coach lost, but the game swing reflects his team's fragility.

Ohio State 41, Indiana 10

Up, down, up, down, way up...  The Buckeyes are crushing lesser foes right now.  Too bad they're fragile as glass.  At least the rest of the Big Ten has the same horrible illness, meaning they're still in the hunt.

Notre Dame 49, BYU 23

The Irish are the most confident team in America right now.  Pretty impressive considering the heartbreaking loss to USC last weekend.  Brady Quinn threw six touchdowns, a new Notre Dame record...eclipsing his old mark of five.  Imagine if the Irish offense had a dynamic back instead of the handful of pluggers currently sitting back there?  Next year they'll average over 40 a game.

Wake Forest 27, N.C. State 19

The Pack's season is comical at this point.  They judiciously subbed ineffective quarterbacks this game, had interceptions returned for touchdowns and got sacked out of field goal range on a series.

Florida State 55, Duke 24

Beat up on the Dukies, but not before making things a little more confusing for themselves.  I think they hit something like 14 different receivers in this game, and frosh back Antone Smith finally showed some life, nevermind that they have wasted Lorenzo Booker's time.  Smith should be pretty good, though.  Hopefully they don't bother to recruit someone to share the backfield with him and cut short his potential, too.

Alabama 6, Tennessee 3

Someone had to win, right?

Texas 52, Texas Tech 17

Tech just ain't ready.  The 'Horns are absolutely cruising right now, and survived two early Vince Young interceptions.  Apparently their fans are loving the attention and want the country to kiss their Darrell Royal behind, judging by all the irate comments on here and anywhere else that challenge their supremacy as greatest thing to happen to football.  Thing is, they've already built a monument to themselves (take a look at the facilities), so why should anyone else have to worship at the altar of their Golden Calf, Bevo?

USC 51, Washington 24

Twelve plays, five touchdowns for USC.  Reggie Bush had a stunning punt return touchdown and Dwayne Jarrett's final of his three TD catches was of the one-handed, back of end zone, one foot in variety.  The defense is starting to come around, and despite losing victimized starting corner John Walker, they may have found gifted replacements in safety Josh Pinkard and freshman corner Kevin Thomas.  The recruiting benefits are showing up again, as frosh linebacker Brian Cushing finally recovered from injury, blocked a punt in his first significant playing time of the season.  Freshman Patrick Turner also had a touchdown grab.

Wisconsin 31, Purdue 20

Hangin' around...

Stanford 45, Arizona State 35

It wasn't really this close.  For an explanation of ASU's collapse, see Michigan State above.

Army 20, Akron 0

Another shutout for #1 Army.  Oh wait, this isn't the 1940's.  Props for the shutout, though.

Oklahoma 37, Baylor 30 (OT)

How the mighty have fallen.  All the small Texas schools are taking it out on the Sooners this year.

Penn State 63, Illinois 10

This was definitely a "get well" game.  When Penn State's putrid offense puts up 56 against you in one half, you have major problems.

UCLA 51, Oregon State 28

This was a game for about a quarter, then UCLA went nuts.  OSU's Mike Haas might just be the best pure receiver in the game.  Maurice Drew is playing like he badly wants a trip to New York City for the Heisman ceremony.  HP says the cutoff right now is at four, with Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn.  Got room for one more?  Not to be outdone, UCLA quarterback Drew Olsen also threw six touchdown passes (a UCLA record).

Oregon 28, Arizona 21

Much like UGA, the Oregon Ducks had their stellar starting quarterback knocked out of the game.  Unlike UGA, their less stellar backup was knocked out a series later!  You want to know the name of their third stringer?  Brady Leaf.  Yes, he's related to you-know-who.  Yikes.  The Ducks survived this scare, though.

LSU 20, Auburn 17 (OT)

Someone had to win, right?  One measure of the offensive acumen of a coaching staff is how well they utilize once in a decade (for the program) type athletes.  LSU has one in Skyler Green, a fairly good comparison to Reggie Bush, athletically.  So far, he's been a very good returnman in his career, and has a few notable touchdown catches as a receiver, but has done little else.  Injuries have something to do with that, but its also apparent their coaches are in no hurry to put him in a position to destroy opponents 15-20 times a game.  Wouldn't they rather the score be LSU 35, Auburn 17?  Put a guy like that in a position to do something more often, and they could easily have that kind of outcome.

UTEP 31, Marshall 3

It's Wazzou South, in El Paso.

California 42, Washington State 38

A fine back-and-forth performance that forced me to stay up way late to claim witness.  Both teams were fairly opportunistic, particularly Cal.  The Bears returned an interception for a touchdown, had a nifty no-room touchdown pass to their fullback, and a late long pass touchdown on a busted coverage.  Three backs ran for over 100 yards, and a Cal freshman receiver I haven't even heard of had a huge touchdown and over 100 receiving yards. 

Saturday Live Thread

You know the drill.  I'll check in from time to time and add thoughts when necessary.  Feel free to join and continue the conversation in the comments section below.

ESPN GameDay is in Austin for the Texas/Texas Tech tilt.  I'll be making a morning run to the local fish place, see what's good for the BBQ later (the shrimp are always great, same with Tilapia, Salmon (last Saturday's special, on cedar planks) and basically anything else.  What a life.

Feel free to check out the schedule and televised games list here. 

Games that pique my curiosity:

• Northwestern @ Michigan State (noon, ESPN2)
• Oregon State @ UCLA (3:30)
• North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (3:30)
• Baylor @ Oklahoma (7:00, FSN)
• Washington State @ Cal (10:15, FSN)
  

Games sure to generate discussion:

• Michigan @ Iowa (12:10, ABC)
• BYU @ Notre Dame (2:30, NBC)
• Texas Tech @ Texas (3:30, ABC)
• Tennessee @ Alabama (3:30, CBS)
• Auburn @ LSU (7:45 ESPN)

Big day for the SEC.

Antitrust

Via BrendanLoy: Here's a piece talking about NFL broadcasting and mandated blackouts.

It's pertinent because the NFL is more or less not allowed to broadcast on Saturdays and thus compete with college football.  Thank God.  Of course, the disinteresting, do nothing NFL style of play itself is often played in many college stadiums throughout the American south so maybe it's not all that missed if you know where to look.

Anyway, interesting read.

Weekend thoughts

I may not get to a review of last weekend's games.  If so, my apologies in advance.

As usual, I'm just skimming down the schedule and adding thoughts when I feel like adding them.  Not a lot of homework here, just on the spot reactions...

What happened to Maryland these last two years?  They were fairly innovative, but perhaps held on too long to their basic offensive formula.  Sounds a lot like NC State's problems.  Not having gifted quarterbacks to run The Fridge's offense hurts, too.  VaTech should claw with them for a while before winning in the third quarter like usual.

Northwestern at Michigan State provides an opportunity to wath two "Little Six" type offenses go at it in the Big Ten.  I like both teams, as they defy college football convention and are willing to take a lot of risk with their schemes and in-game decision making.  Michigan State's just better, but who knows how they'll respond to last weekend's collapse against Ohio State and the realization that their season doesn't matter much at this point.  For their part, Northwestern goes into each game thinking its the underdog, and unloads the entire offense in the first half, trying to scare opponents into submission (see Penn State and Purdue games).  Problem is, they run out of gas too soon and opponents eventually figure out they can still narrowly win, as almost happened with Purdue and did happen with Penn State.  Michigan State should win this one, though.

One game outcome that would make very little sense is North Carolina over Virginia.  For whatever reason, middling big conference teams really love to take down their conference brethren who are ranked in that #18-#25 range.  UVA may be feeling a little too good after the takedown of FSU and cough this one up.  Why not?

Syracuse and Pittsburgh... ugly.  Find the quickest path to intoxication if you're forced into watching this one.  Next.

The Louisville haters would love to see them lose to Cincinnati, buffering the Big Conference superiority argument.  After another odd defeat, L'Ville's players may not care much anymore.  Michael Bush is probably playing for the NFL at this point.  I'd still take Louisville here, though.

In a battle of disappointments, we have Michigan at Iowa.  Like Michigan/Minnesota, this one's been fairly interesting in recent years.  MGoBlog's got a laundry list of Michigan injuries not including the suck bug that's invaded Chad Henne's head.  Are the Wolverines too wounded?  Was there a worse game-winning drive than last week's almost accidental touchdown against Penn State?  I have no idea what to think of these teams at this point since they both love giving games away.  I'll take the better coach, here, and go with Iowa.

Which Georgia team shows up this weekend?  The motivated one that will beat Arkansas 42-7, or the dance through the flower patches lackadaisical one that is ok with winning 31-21?  Now's a good time for D.J. Shockley to have a talked-about performance to get his name back in the Heisman race (there's one spot left for New York City!).  UGA wins.

Kentucky at Mississippi.  Yep, the SEC is a great league.  Just superb.

The Catholics versus the Mormons.  Or something like that.  Notre Dame needs to not have a letdown game this week against BYU.  The Cougars have played the Irish tough in recent years, but Charlie Weis looks like the real deal and should have his team prepared.  This might be a close one, though.  I wonder if now that the USC game is over, the Notre Dame folks have decided to mow the lawn?

In a game of interest if only because both teams are trying to break the mold a little, Rutgers takes on Connecticut in what could be a pretty fun game.  What are the odds ESPN's Bruce Feldman has this one turned on at whatever pres box he's at this weekend?

Quick---name one NCAA team that has had five road games in its first seven?  Can you believe than answer is USC?  Maybe, just maybe an unbelievably tough road slate is taking its toll on the Trojans?  I hunch this game against Washington is one of those back to basics, survival type games for USC that may take a while to seal a victory.  But the Trojans remain an obvious choice.

Can Texas Tech beat Texas?  Yes.  Will they?  I highly doubt it.  They do own one win over the Longhorns in the last five years, but also own several blowout losses.  Last year Texas ran all over the Red Raiders, and this year they may just pass all over them.  That said, Tech's kind of a funky outfit, and they have the most offensive talent under coach Leach since he arrived, so an upset, although not likely, isn't impossible.  They need to have some kind of strategy, much like the Cal game last year.  But there simply isn't enough prep time in a week to meet the task.  I go with the 'Horns here.

One game I don't want to be near is Tennessee at Alabama.  There's a lot of bad blood between fans here, mostly because 'Bama fans view Vols coach Fullmer as a turncoat and antiChrist.  There's a big recruiting and defamation and all kinds of other legal brouhaha stuff I don't want to get into.  To say the least, there are a lot of external forces at work in this game.  This is Alabama's first test since crushing Florida.  Tennessee knows their season is over, and they spend the next eight weeks playing spoilers.  Can they do it?  The road setting, plus this being a night game, plus everything else, could make things really hard for them.  That said, I think Bama's going to have to force this game into a mudfest for them to have a chance.  I'm hesitantly going with 'Bama, though.  Apparently Tennessee's back to its QB rotation again.  Ugh.

Oregon State took down Cal last weekend.  Now they're on the road against UCLA.  Can they pull off two upsets in a row?  I say no.  UCLA's just a little too good for the Beavers, especially at home, setting of their magical comeback against Cal.

Fresh off their somewhat predictable loss against Virginia, FSU gets to take out their big bully frustrations on Duke.  They know not what they do.

What to do, what to do, with North Carolina State at Wake Forest.  Both teams have bad records, but one team (Wake) is actually playing decent football.  Thing is, NC State needs a win, badly.  Its fan mutiny out there, and things like that tend to inspire at least one awkward big huge win somewhere in a season.  This game seems like a good place for that to happen.  Going against common sense, I say Wolfpack, here.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina... yep, the SEC is grrrrrrrrreat.  Funny how these games get swept under the rug.

Here's an under-the-rader team for you: Oregon.  Are they 6-1 good?  Hard to tell, but they dominated Arizona State two weekends ago, and had USC on the ropes not too long ago.  I think first year offenses tend to be quite inconsistent, so this may be a game (against Arizona) where the Ducks struggle, especially now that they're feeling good about themselves and may lose focus.  They should, however, still manage to win.

Baylor beats Oklahoma?  Say it ain't so.  I doubt it, but wouldn't that be something?

And finally, what to make of Auburn at LSU?  Auburn hasn't had a good test in weeks and LSU is a poseur.  The fun part may be watching the sidelines and the two odd coaches at work.  Conventional wisdom says go with resurgent LSU.  Deciding between who is less of a bumbling coach says go with Auburn.  I say the Tigers win here.  Auburn Tigers, that is.

Week Eight games

This Week's Games is once again updated and available for review-see link here or just click "This Week's Games" on the menu to your left.

Also, I've added FSN televised games to the other slate of broadcasters, so this should be a little more accurate now.

Virginia Tech plays Maryland tonight, so watch it.