Wilmaaaaa!!!!!!!

Hurricane Wilma, 2005's record-setting storm (in many ways) is churning around the lower Gulf waters, near the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula.  It is expected to head north, then hook severely to the northeast, cutting across lower and central florida.

Thumbnail of Wilma's projected path, click to enlarge 

You know the drill---we'll be on the lookout for "Hurricane Games" that may be postponed, canceled, moved up or moved back.  It is heartening to know that as of right now, the category five monster is expected to lose power on its path to Florida, settling in at around a still-powerful high three or low four.

The best ways to keep updated:

• The Weather Channel
• Brendan Loy
  

Here's a story on Miami's game with Georgia Tech being postponed (to November 19, thus moving Miami's game with Wake Forest to November 12) and Central Florida's game with Hurricane terrorized Tulane moved from Saturday to Friday-Story

It also says USF officials are watching the storm but so far will go on as planned with Saturday's matchup against West Virginia.

Wilma is expected to make landfall late Saturday or early Sunday.  Wilma is still very much under the control of other weather patterns, and thus its projected path may change quite dramatically over the coming days and hours, so its U.S. destination (if it hits at all) is still relatively unknown. 

Live Saturday thread

Feel free to comment below on GameDay, or any of the games.

I'll also contribute.

 

More USC/ND buildup

Over at Brendan Loy/Irish Trojan (a USC loyalist, in the end), there's a cool gallery of the GameDay set and some pregame festivities involving bad booze.  He's also got the latest pep rally rumors swirling around South Bend (Bon Jovi?  Bruce Springsteen?  The Pope?).

Notre Dame's traditional pregame pep rally at its basketball arena has been moved to the football stadium to accomodate the crowd (weather permitting) and ESPNNews will televise it live.

On the internet, we have a friendly exchange between USC blogger BoiFromTroy and ND blogger BlueGraySky.  Additionally, Brendan Loy's got a bet going on between himself and ND blogger The Backer (named after Notre Dame's Linebacker Lounge, an institution of sorts) to display the winners' colors on their blog.  A similar bet is also being made between BFT and BGS, but to display a picture of the winners' choice after the game.

I also watched the awful ESPN program Cold Pizza this morning.  The setting was pretty cool, with the fog lifting to reveal the Touchdown Jesus mural on the bookstore/library, and Woody Paige and Skip Bayless are really buying into Notre Dame and coach Weis.  They're both in love with Brady Quinn and debated whether he was better than Matt Leinart.  I thought it was pretty cool to trot out former ND quarterback Tony Rice, although most of the assembled students had little to no idea who he was.

Not a bad week, and we still have tomorrow with GameDay and the game itself.

Weekend thoughts

Alabama gets its first game since jumping Florida, taking on Ed Orgeron's Mississippi squad.  Its defense should suffocate whatever Ole Miss proffers on offense.  I think long-term, losing Tyrone Prothro hurts a lot, as they have to go without their big playmaker on an offense lacking a whole lot of pop outside of the quarterback.  That isn't to say back Kenneth Darby isn't good (he's a very good everydown back), only he's not the biggest threat other than to just chew away 5-7 yards every carry.  The obvious choice here is to say the Tide cruise, and I'll agree, because games like these should just be cans in the road; one swift kick and you're back to more important business.

Texas Tech should crush Kansas State.  I have no idea why Kansas State has fallen so far.  Losing talent is one thing, but coach Snyder's always been a good motivator and game plan guy.  I don't think his hearts in it anymore.

Wake Forest at Boston College could be interesting.  The Eagles have a decent defense and the offense always knows how to run and make a handful of plays through the air.  But Wake's really got their run offense working.  It registered over 200 yards against Florida State last weekend (although it netted them just 17 meaningful points).  I could see an upset, but the Eagles are also home and looking to stay close to Florida State in the ACC Atlantic division race.  Call this one a narrow win for BC.

CFR superstar team Michigan State hits the road to Columbus to play Ohio State.  Expect the Buckeye offense to come alive against State's crappy D, much the same as Michigan did two weekends ago.  That said, the Buckeyes are not as potent offensively as the Wolverines and State should still find ways to get itself around 30 points.  Heck, Penn State and their pedestrian O managed 17 against the Buckeyes last weekend.  The snag for Michigan State is they may not believe they can win this, and let their powerhouse opponent dictate the game to them at times.  They looked tentative against the inferior Wolverines in a similar game, and we could see more of the same here.  If the Spartans figure Ohio State out, this one could be something like 34-28.  If not, 24-20 OSU, perhaps.  I don't anticipate a shootout, that's just not Ohio State's style.  I'm going with the Spartans.

Here's a mirror image game: Wisconsin at Minnesota.  Both teams employ heavy-handed rush attacks and have fairly pedestrian defenses.  Both also have recorded narrow victories against Michigan this year.  Minnesota's more comfortable in mechanically running the ball, letting their finesse line open lanes for a bevy of similar backs.  When they get knocked off that plan, they tend to lock up.  Wisconsin's a little more flexible, and have shown the ability to ratchet up their offense (Bowling Green, Northwestern) if a game calls for it.  The Badgers defense probably has a shot at disrupting the Minnesota offense at times, enough to give them an opening from which to take command here.  I'll go with Wisky.

Miami should crush Temple.  Next.

A more difficult choice is between Northwestern and Purdue.  I love the Northwestern offense, and they stretched Wisconsin to their limits in getting an OT victory last week.  That said, Purdue's licking its wounds and may not take kindly to the visiting Wildcats.  This may be Purdue's "get well" game after back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Iowa.  The Wildcats' attack is so markedly different from what Purdue's seen the last two weeks that the Boiler defense may be a little rattled, but then...they also practice against a pretty funky offense themselves, making the familiarity argument moot.  In a bit of a surprise, I'll go with Purdue here---their defense is due for a game where they make a few stops (albeit after surrenduring another 500 or so yards).

The most hyped game this year is obviously USC at Notre Dame.  I think the only thing in USC's way here is the whole Notre Dame Stadium and Touchdown Jesus mystique.  The slow starts are bound to end, and although I think Charlie Weis may be (we'll need at least a season plus of games to really be sure) one of the game's better coaches, he really doesn't have the guns to win this one.  USC's lack of familiarity with what the Irish run plays to ND's advantage, but ND is also just five games into this scheme, themselves.  There's a lot of rough edges yet to be smoothed.  Notre Dame's won on defense by forcing an incredible amount of timely turnovers, but they're not likely to have as much impact against a professional offense like USC's.  USC should have little trouble getting at least 30 points, if not much higher.  Brady Quinn should have a superb day, but I'm not sure Darius Walker is the kind of back who can challenge the Trojan defense enough to give the Irish offense enough breathing room to score the amount of points they're going to need here.  I'm having trouble figuring out a spread here, since the game can go so many ways (new coaches=no real team identity to speak of after just five games), so I'll say USC wins this with some level of comfort.

Texas should stomp Colorado, but I like some of Solon's analysis on EDSBS on why this game may in fact be close.  Colorado's kind of sneaky, and Joel Klatt may find ways to breathe life into the Buffaloes' offense.  But Texas has been absolutely taking care of business and I anticipate they will continue to do so here.  At some point in the season, every undefeated (assuming Texas goes undefeated) team has a stumble or two or three.  Texas is due, particularly given how soft the rest of the schedule is.  So this game may take almost three quarters to be decided.  Or maybe it is an upset.  I say Longhorns by a healthy margin here.

Resurgent Penn State ("we're back"; "we are Penn State") travels to Ann Arbor against a surly, if combustible, Michigan squad.  The Nittany Lions' defense has been fierce, even against CFR darling Northwestern.  They should give Michigan a lot of trouble, but I think Mike Hart could make for a fairly long day here, particularly because the Lions' rush attack should be well within manageability for the Wolverine defense.  Michael Robinson is once again the wild card here: so far he's been able to lead his team and overcome a ton of mistakes.  Can he do it again against another name brand foe?  I think that now that Michigan's season is over, they can really enjoy playing spoiler.  This is the perfect game for them, with an opponent whose offense is pretty lame and a home setting to entertain the faithful.  Chad Henne will likely struggle against the Lions' secondary, but Mike Hart has tore through everything he's faced this year, even good defenses.  I'll go with Michigan here, and the upset.  Now why do I feel so shaky about this pick?  Oh yeah, its Michigan I'm going with (once again---d'oh!).

Florida should beat LSU.  Les Miles is in over his head, and the Tiger faithful are getting mutinous.  Each passing game, Florida is bound to get just a little bit better, as much as they've struggled so far.  They've proven they can scrap in the meantime and get by.  I'm going with the Gators here.

California should stomp Oregon State.  Devastating loss to UCLA last week aside, they're playing great football, and the offense looked great going against the first real defense of the season.  There's a malaise in Corvallis that spells trouble for the Beavers' entire season.  Go with the Bears.

In a fairly obvious pick, I'm taking Louisville over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers should provide a decent challenge, however, and make this a game well beyond halftime.  In the end, there's little West Virginia can do to hang with the Cardinals' offense, however.

Washington has a shot to make Oregon have a long afternoon.  The Huskies, despite having a junk quarterback, have had all kinds of success through the air this year.  They don't necessarily score a lot, but they rack up a ton of yards, and that causes the games to take forever.  Oregon scored a huge win over ASU last weekend, and they appear to be running on all cylinders with their version of the spread offense (The "Oregon" offense, says coach Belotti).  Sometimes teams have letdown games that coincide with an opponent catching stride, and that may happen here.  However, Oregon should win.

UCLA has lost a bunch in a row to Washington State, and now must travel to Pullman fresh off a huge win against Cal.  The typical UCLA team would lose this game in embarrassing fashion, but I'm holding out that they have their act together and can stay focused enough to win out through the Pac-10 until their game against USC.  Maurice Drew is on a tear, and although the Cougs' running game should give the Bruins fits for a second week in a row, Drew is an even bigger challenge.  UCLA's the choice here.

Florida State takes on Virginia in a midseason ACC battle.  The Seminoles just keep on winning, and should continue to do so here.  Virginia coach Al Groh is having to deal with a lot of media backlash and inquiry after one of his linemen had a nasty back of leg attack against Boston College last weekend.  The Cavs have otherwise done little of significance this year and are looking really flat.  There is the hope that FSU once again sleepwalks on offense and has a second straight subpar defensive afternoon... but that's just a hope.  Seminoles win this one.

Six weeks into their dance in cupcake land, Auburn still hasn't decided to join the rest of us in reality world.  They face a bad Arkansas team this weekend and should win.  They're still trying to get the running game in order, but the defense has played well and the offense probably has enough juice to make this game an easy one.  The choice is Auburn.

Is Baylor for real?  We'll find out when they play Nebraska.  In reality, this should be an easy Husker win---but if Nebraska is thinking the same thing Baylor will win.  They're a team much more starved for victories and have beaten every unprepared opponent so far.  So basicalyl the question is this: is Nebraska taking Baylor seriously?  If so, they'll win.  If not, they'll go down in stunning defeat.  I think they're ready.  The Cornhuskers win here.

Georgia should clean the floor with Vanderbilt.  The question is, does the Georgia team that waxed Boise State and Tennessee show up, or the one that sleeps through games against South Carolina and Mississippi State?  They need to be alive and play for the pollsters and light that scoreboard up if they know whats best for them.  I hunch the big win over Tennessee has them realizing they're contenders and start to really crush the weaklings that come their way.  I'll take the Bulldogs, big.

That's all.

This week's games

The schedule is up, or find it on the menu at left.

This Week's Games 

Weekend wrap

I'll just go down the list of games, adding thoughts to the ones that are worth talking about.

• Virginia Tech 41, Marshall 14

The Hokies were leading just 14-7 at half, before a lighting fast 20-point barrage in the third quarter put this one out of reach.  I love it when teams can take over in the third quarter of a game, and Tech's 200-to-1 yardage advantage in the period reflects that.  Starting back Cedric Humes broke his arm, but backup Brandon Ore ran for 146 yards, easing concerns about the running game.  The Hokies also scored their 4^th defensive touchdown of the year.  Right now this is one team seriously taking care of business and meriting its high ranking (last five games: 45-0, 45-0, 51-7, 34-17, 41-14).

• Florida State 41, Wake Forest 24

This one was closer than it looked, as Wake was within 20-17 early in the 4^th quarter.  Florida State is hyping that four of their touchdowns came to freshmen (Drew Weatherford, Xavier Lee, Fred Rouse, Greg Carr).  The offense is starting to look like Mark Richt's late 90's pass-happy attack, as the Seminoles were just shy of a 400-yard passing day.  FSU's great rush defense looked exposed, though, as Wake (who I credit for having a very strong rushing attack) gained well over 200 yards on the ground.  One Seminole player living up to his hype is RS-FR receiver Greg Carr (3 rec, 129 yards, 43.0 average, 1 TD), who has caught 9 passes on the year, 5 of them going for touchdowns.  He's a taller player, bringing back memories of FSU's string of lanky jump ballers in the mid-to-late 90's.

• Northwestern 51, Wisconsin 48

I said in my preview that precedent (Wisconsin 56, Bowling Green 42) would hold here.  Oops.  Northwestern and Bowling Green are two similar teams, running fancy but efficient offenses with little available talent other than the quarterback and back.  Well, it appears Northwestern is just a little better than Bowling Green, and a little familiarity with the Wisconsin offense certainly helped slow the Badgers down a little more than Bowling could.  The offensive numbers for this game were ridiculous.  Wisky's Brian Calhoun had 23 carries for 122 yards and... 11 catches for 128 yards.  Good luck getting out of bed this morning.  I also said in the preview teams were starting to figure out Wildcat back Tyrell Sutton.  Apparently Wisconsin didn't get the memo, as he had 29 carries for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns.  I wonder if Michigan or Ohio State will ever consider running the Northwestern offense---because if the Wildcats can do this to the Badgers, imagine what they could do with the amount of talent on their rosters?

• Florida 35, Mississippi State 9

The Gators aren't really all that together right now.  They've found a new star in defender Reggie Nelson (all kinds of game-changing plays), but Chris Leak is banged up (they didn't let him attempt a single pass in practice) with a bad shoulder and the offense is having to scrap.  I think over time coach Meyer will find more complimentary personnel (think USC using 3rd string fullbacks in 2001 to direct their running game, then going out and recruiting LenDale White and Reggie Bush to fit their system), particularly in the running game.  I was discussing the gators with a friend and he asked how departed back Ciatrick Fason would have fit in with the current offense.  I said: "perfect".  Fason had a nice combination of size, elusiveness, and catching ability.  The current backs are either a bit light (Manson) or not explosive enough and not as gifted as receivers (Wynn).

• Minnesota 23, Michigan 20

Argh!  So Michigan finally looked average with Mike Hart in the lineup.  I can't figure this team out, so I'm guessing its because the roster (and perhaps coaching staff) is filled with way too many headcases to really get their act together this year.  Their performances are beyond explanation at this point and I'm just hoping they continue to stumble along the path and do their best to get out of the way of contending teams who have a real shot at doing something with their seasons.

• Texas 45, Oklahoma 12

Like Virginia Tech, the Longhorns are taking care of what needs to be taken care of.  The Horns dismissed the Sooners with a few minutes left in the first half, and put in a few extra points in the second half for good measure.  For the most part Oklahoma contained Vince Young's running game, but it left their secondary open for the taking.  Thanks to years of atrophy, Texas' receivers are a pretty pedestrian group, but they're still good enough to get open when they're given the opportunity.  Freshman back Jamaal Charles continues to develop (good preseason pick, CFR), and went Adrian Peterson on Oklahoma with an 80-yard touchdown run that was a mirror image of Peterson's romp against Oklahoma State last year.

• Navy 27, Air Force 24

I didn't watch this one, but it was worth mentioning.

• Baylor 23, Iowa State 13

Way to go, Baylor!  Once in a while its nice to see a doormat pick up an unexpected win.

• Miami 52, Duke 7

I'm still not sold on the Hurricanes.  Kyle Wright had a 3-TD outburst in the second quarter, giving way to backup Kirby Freeman (who is a pretty good player himself).  Tyrone Moss is not the solution at back.  Do the 'Canes have better options?  They better.

• Georgia 27, Tennessee 14

This one wasn't as close as the score indicated.  In fact, the Bulldogs nearly pitched a shutout in front of the Neyland faithful.  To tell you the truth, I think Georgia's holding back quite a bit (perhaps they're buying into the SEC myth, too), because their offense is capable of dropping 40 with ease on defenses like Tennessee's.  I shudder to imagine how bad the Vols would have looked if Erik Ainge was still the starter.  Georgia now controls its destiny in the SEC, which of course means they're likely to flop somewhere in the next three weeks.

• USC 42, Arizona 21

I'm not sure the Trojans have really come close to putting together a complete game this season, which should worry the rest of the CFB world.  Arizona took advantage of a USC special teams coverage breakdown, netting 14 of their 21 points with short fields.  LenDale White went nuts (180 yards, 4 touchdowns) and now USC fans are starting to talk him up as a Heisman candidate (3 candidates?  Ehhhh).  Reggie Bush tweaked his knee and looked pretty rusty out there, but still managed over 100 rushing yards on limited carries.  Don't look now, but USC now has the nation's #1 ranked rushing offense.

• Texas Tech 34, Nebraska 31

So much for Nebraska's vaunted defense.  Tech actually scored with just a few seconds left to win this thing, so credit to the Huskers for hanging around and making this thing competitive.

• Iowa 34, Purdue 17

Iowa is the better team, and Iowa won.  Both teams rang up a ton of yards here, but like the inefficient offenses they are, neither team came close to scoring the 40 or 50 points that usually come with so many yards.

• Louisville 69, North Carolina 14

Are the Cardinals back?  I'm not sure.  The blowout was impressive, though, and makes me think the team has found its stride (two defensive touchdowns on top of the offensive outburst).  The South Florida debacle leaves no pretenses of being a contender, but Louisville is certainly back on CFR's radar as a top 10 candidate in the near future.  They need to keep this up, however.

• Stanford 24, Washington State 21

What in the world?  I mentioned WSU's run game in the preview, so a gold star goes to the Cougars' Jerome Harrison for not making me look stupid as he ran for 218 yards on 29 carries (7.5 average) and a touchdown.  Defying rational explanation, Stanford's statue of a quarterback, Trent Edwards, ran for 77 yards on 12 carries (7.7 average).

• Ball State 60, Western Michigan 57

I wouldn't have noticed if not for the "scoring by quarter" chart for this game extending beyond the page thanks to five overtimes.  Local hospitals usually do a good business reviving heart attack victims after games like these.

• LSU 34, Vanderbilt 6

This game was 12-6 going into the 4^th quarter.  Yep, LSU suuuuuuuuuuuuuure looks like a contender.  Just because a team has loads of skill talent doesn't mean it has any idea how to be an elite football team.  Ask Georgia the last few years.  Or Michigan.

• UCLA 47, California 40

If you watched this game, it's pretty obvious California is the better football team.  It's also pretty obvious they had no idea how to stop Maurice Drew, and no idea how to finish the Bruins off.  Credit to coach Dorrell, who is directing a very spirited team that believes in itself enough to where they can come back against a team that had beaten them senseless all game.  The Bears ran ALLLLLL over UCLA's defense, and had a field day passing the ball as well.  Problem was, they couldn't stop Maurice Drew on the ground or on special teams, allowing UCLA to hang close and eventually steal a win.  Their coach is still a boob, but I'm coming around on UCLA, they run a good offense, have some playmakers on D, and have faith they can win games they shouldn't.  Good stuff.  Their next mission is to not suffer a letdown this weekend at Washington State.

• Penn State 17, Ohio State 10

Credit goes to the Nittany Lions for winning this one.  Their defense is a problem that most opponents cannot solve, and the offense is doing just enough to win the close ones.  That said, I'm far from sold on this team.  I think they're pretenders, and will be in with the rest of the Big Ten muck soon enough.  Teams with shaky quarterbacks never really reach their promise, and as such the same fate likely awaits PSU.  In the meantime, all they've done is win, and I recognize as much.  It's a good time for their frustrated fans, and it's good for college football.  This is a season Joe Paterno can be proud of and hopefully ice his amazing career with.

• Oregon 31, Arizona State 17

Sigh.  ASU's amazing offense stalled against Oregon, particularly because their experiment of winning with a dynamic passing game and little to no effort at running the ball expired.  Oregon clearly figured that out, and forced Sam Keller to play conservatively in order to score.  Instead, he tried pushing the ball around the field and Oregon ate him up, forcing incompletions, and down-and-long situations all night.  It was a great performance by a shaky secondary, and a first-rate coaching job.  It looks like Oregon is starting to grasp its new offense.

So, to recap-

Cheers:

USC, Texas, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Navy, Baylor, Georgia, Louisville, UCLA

Jeers:

Texas Tech, Iowa, LSU

What the hell:

Florida, Michigan, Washington State, California, Penn State, Arizona State

*ALERT*

You can forget about watching ESPN and other CFB programming this week, because all you're going to hear about is the USC/ND matchup.  And you are going to get VERY tired of it by the time Tuesday rolls around.  Then there's still Wednesday.  And Thursday.  And Friday.  And Saturday AM.  And GameDay. 

Just a heads up.

It is for sure an intriguing matchup, but don't say I didn't warn you.

That said, I can't wait to see the game.

This week's games

See the link here or just click on the link at left.

Some intriguing matchups to look forward to.  We'll get to that, coming up, with CFR's weekend game thoughts.

CFR week five top teams list

A little more shuffling going on this week, for obvious reasons.

I particularly enjoy this part of the season because most elite teams either have a loss or have survived a scare, and others are soon to fall.  Part of what will determine their fate here is how they get through the final half of the season, either collapsing or surviving or going on a major tear.

Week Five Top Teams List (10/7/2005):

1. USC-Second consecutive second-half road comeback against a strong conference foe.  Thirty five second half points?  My God...  They're vulnerable, but mostly to themselves.  Matt Leinart's head is a little sore after a concussion, but Reggie Bush and LenDale White filled in admirably, controlling an entire second half.
2. Virginia Tech-Rolling.  Two shutouts, one near shutout, a close opening win against a tough team, and last week's win against rival West Virginia on the road.  The offense isn't the greatest, but they get the ball to their playmakers (Marcus Vick, Eddie Royal).
3. Texas-Rolling.  Missouri gave them a scare for ohhh.... a quarter.  Not their best performance and still put up 51.  They're a bit trapped this weekend, though, because Oklahoma is so down.  Worse, the Sooners appear to have at least gotten their act together to the point of modest respectability.  Just win and deal with the perception game later.
4. California-Call this a weak number four right now.  Their depth continues to take hits and Marshawn Lynch isn't himself (think Justin Vincent).  Last night ESPN said the Bears "haven't been tested" so far.  Well, yeah.  A lot of teams haven't.  Why the Bears were their target, who knows.  We'll find out plenty these last few weeks, including this weekend's roadie against ranked UCLA (and future games at Oregon and against #1 USC).
5. Arizona State-Almost beat USC, should have beat LSU.  Horseshoes, hand grenades.  Still a fine team.  Hopefully they don't piss away the rest of their season in disgust.  Could be better than Cal.
6. Georgia-Hopefully this sleepwak act is over, because the SEC is theirs if they want it.  They're at #7 Tennessee this weekend.  Can also hop Cal and ASU on here quite soon.
7. Alabama-With great hesitation.  Absolutely spanked Florida, but there isn't much to suggest this is an elite team.  They play solid defense, but they've got 1) a coach with a proven record of mediocrity and 2) a lackluster offense (sans 31 point outburst) now without its big playmaker Tyrone Prothro.  So far, so good, though.
8. Florida-With hesitation, also.  Their offense obviously isn't all together, and it won't be for a while.  But to get spanked like that is more than a little troubling.  I remember a Prothro TD catch late in the game when the Florida DB was covering him pretty well, but just never turned around and Prothro hauled in the TD catch.  It looked like he was going through the motions, conceding the game.  If true, this team has more subtle but profound issues to deal with and may soon fall.  Or maybe they can get their act together.
9. Notre Dame-The back of the rankings are a bit tough here.  I'm not really sure how these teams are going to behave the next few weeks.  ND's proving itself to be, if nothing else, resilient.  No blowout losses, and winning with both offense and defense.  Confidence is surging in South Bend, and they're doing a lot with limited talent, which means everyone is buying in.  But when tough times hit, can this team rally behind coach Weis, or are they going to hate him?  Two weeks to prepare for #1 USC, let's see what they do.
10. Ohio State-On a bit of a flier, here.  Since the Texas game, this team has quietly done its things in the shadows of the rest of its shaky conference.  The defense looks pretty solid and the offense is responding to Troy Smith.  The Buckeyes are on the road to #18 Penn State this weekend.

Booted:

• UCLA-Washington?  Ugh.  This is a pretty good team, still, and booting them might be a bit unfair.  They've got a game with the #8 Cal Bears this weekend to signal a recovery.
• Minnesota-Waxed by Penn State.  The Gophers are alright, but not contenders.  And their great run attack didn't materialize, which is a huge sign for worry.

Other Teams to Consider:

• Florida State-Hanging around on the periphery.  Give the ball to Booker!  And then give it to him some more.
• Michigan State-Tough loss, but points for the recovery from a near disaster early.  Very dangerous team.
• Michigan-Can any team be more manic?  Gosh.  They look completely different with Mike Hart in the lineup.  Its weird because his backups are decent (although Kevin Grady has that deer-in-headlights look when running).
• Auburn-Barely.
• Tennessee-Barely, but at least they have the right quarterback in the lineup now.
  

This Week's Games, Week Five

Per usual, CFR's This Week's Games section is updated.

Off to an earlier than usual start to the week, tonight saw Fresno State crush Toledo.  ESPN or ESPN2 will televise a handful of uninteresting games the rest of the way until Saturday when we have a decent slate of games to look forward to.

The 12:00 bracket starts out with Heisman candidate Vince Young and the #2 Texas Longhorns tackling Brad Smith and Missouri (12th nationally in scoring at 43.7 PPG).  #3 Virginia Tech travels down the road to old Big East rival West Virginia.  The game everyone will be checking out is #11 Michigan State in a rare role as home favorite against Michigan.  The Wolverines need this game badly, having already lost to Notre Dame, the fan base is on the ropes and simply cannot fathom taking one to the gut from the rival Spartans.  No doubt Warren from RJYH will have a field day this week getting clinical on the Michigan bloggers' suicide routines.  Is it any wonder that Jack Kevorkian was able to get so much work in the great state of Michigan?

Also of some intrigue (HT Bruce Feldman), undefeated Indiana takes on undefeated Wisconsin.

#24 Louisville may be sucking its collective thumb in anticipation of yet another non-big-three Florida school opponent.  This time it's Florida Atlantic coming to town.  Don't screw it up again, fellas!

A few minutes later, Illinois takes on Iowa.  Think the Hawkeyes get Zooked in their own backyard?

At 12:30 #10 Tennessee takes on Ed Orgeron's Mississippi Rebels.  I'd pay to see the pregame Orgeron tirade and his references to the girth of Tennessee coach Fullmer.  Also, Texas A&M tries to reprogram their memories and avenge a loss to mighty Baylor last year.

After that, nothing of interest happens until 3:30.

ABC and its GameDay show are out in Tempe anticipating some kind of upset (think 1996 ASU 19, Nebraska 0) between #1 USC and Arizona State.  I'm just anticipating an interesting game.  The Trojan defense was something fierce against Oregon last weekend, and they've long contained Dirk Koetter's teams.  Thing is, there's a new sheriff in town, and Sam Keller is a far superior offensive player to Andrew Walter---he can actually move the ball around the field and make deadly weapons out of not one but two tight ends.  That said, the Leinart/Bush '05 show will roll on.  Great viewing.

CBS grabs an intriguing game between Florida and Alabama at the same time.  Hopefully the Gators learned their lesson from the matchup against Tennessee and don't get suckered into the usual SEC mud ball, keep-it-close because I can't win straight-up type games that Alabama loves to play.  Both teams are undefeated, so the hype is going to be pretty intense.

Depending on where you live, ABC will also have a trio of snoozers to watch: Syracuse @ #16 Florida State, #18 Minnesota @ Penn State, and #23 Iowa State @ Nebraska.  Oh Lord.  Pray for Minnesota and their robotic running offense (and Heisman candidate Laurence Maroney) if you can't get the USC game.

At five, Oregon faces Stanford.  This game has train wreck value, as Stanford will be making its first appearance since the well-publicized shaming against some nobody from the bowels of the lower division schools.

I'm kind of looking forward to the 7:00 matchup between Arizona and #12 California.  The Bears are fun to watch but they're still kinda shaky right now.  At this point they need to be getting the last kinks out of the machine before taking on the heart of the Pac-10 slate.  Games against UCLA, ASU and USC are on the horizon, so this should be kind of the tune-up, look your Sunday finest match for them.

Steve Spurrier's South Carolina bottom dwellers also travel to the Plains to take on the Auburn Tigers, full of cupcake crumbs all over their front whiskers.  Are they satisfied, or is there room for more?

And in perhaps the strangest national broadcast ever (if I'm reading the ESPN schedule correctly), ABC is televising for a live national audience, a game played in front of maybe 9,000 people between host San Jose State and visiting Nevada. ? ? ?  Apparently the Kansas State at Oklahoma game just wasn't worth their time.

As day drifts into night, #13 Notre Dame trips to nearby #22 Purdue for what should be a fairly good game.  Both teams have well designed if somewhat creaky offenses.  They both hate each other.  Both have chips on their shoulders.  Cool.  Keep it interesting, fellas.

Lastly, South Florida tries to play giant killer again, visiting #9 Miami.  Thing is, as much as people hate Miami, if they lost this game, would anybody really care?  It kind of bothers me how non-controversial these recent Miami teams have become.  College football could use a contending Miami team, but won't get it for at least this season.

Four weeks in, what's up with the SEC

Contenders:

• Florida-Their offense is a shell of what it will be, yet they snuck out a win against Tennessee and then crushed Kentucky.  Alabama is next.  CFR thought they'd be the class of the SEC, and so far it's looking that way.  Next up: Alabama.
  
• Georgia-That win over Boise is starting to look a little odd, given the less-than-dominant wins over doormats South Carolina (17-15) and Mississippi State (23-10).  It's still early, and we saw the offense look ridiculously inventive and vibrant over Boise, but this team might be in a funk.  Obviously the defense looks fine, but they can move from Ohio State close win goodness to USC styled greatness by treating inferior foes as such.  Get at it, Dawgs!  Next up: Tennessee (October 8).
  
• Auburn-The SEC savvy comment board folks here sniff these Tigers out as the paper variety.  Perhaps.  It looks like the running game is coming around after a dance through cupcake land (Mississippi State, Ball State, Western Kentucky).  Losing NFL draft stars and a big-name DC hurts, but its not like the cupboards are bare or the system itself has changed much on either side of the ball.  Brandon Cox is probably a better QB than Jason Campbell, anyway.  Heck, his backup Blake Field managed to breeze through Western Kentucky.  Games against South Carolina and Arkansas should provide more fodder before heading to Baton Rouge on October 22.

Pretenders:

• Tennessee-Their defense is alright, but when a collective coaching staff cannot figure out Rick Clausen is by far the best quarterback on the roster, a team has major issues.  The Vols might have actually upset Florida last weekend if their quarterback had a different last name.  Yesterday's win was nice, if terrible to watch.  Next up: Mississippi.
  
• LSU-The win over Arizona State was an upset, pure and simple.  The SunDevils bludgeoned their defense, treating the Tigers like they were the Northwestern Wildcats.  Even Tennessee's creaky offense found its way to 24 points against them in Baton Rouge!  I'm still laughing at Les Miles' timeout strategy on change of possessions.  Zoinks.  Next up: At Mississippi State.
  
• Alabama-Sorry, Warren.  This is a team coached by Mike Shula we're talking about here.  For whatever reason, this team more than any other engages in SEC mud ball, slowing the pace of games down to a cool 30 beats per minute.  They're quite skilled at suckering opponents into playing their way, a la Mike Fratello's slow-down Cleveland Cavaliers squads.  Problem is, that's not how elite teams operate (Ohio State 2002 aberration aside).  Arkansas almost beat them last weekend, Florida's likely to finish the job this time around.

Target Practice:

• Vanderbilt-Nice story.  They've had better defensive squads over the years, but its when their offense emerges that they gain some respectability.  Funny how that works.  They have a good QB, which gives them hope, but its not like Bobby Johnson is Gary Barnette, or even Randy Walker.
• Kentucky-Rich Brooks is on the way out, Kitten's clothes are staying on.
• South Carolina-I'd throw my visor, too.
• Mississippi-Maybe next year.
• Mississippi State-Remember the goat they put in the T-Rex cage in Jurassic Park?  Yeah...
• Arkansas-Houston Nutt, meet Rich Brooks.  Rich Brooks, meet Houston Nutt.  This conference isn't very hospitable to outsiders (well, sans Steve Spurrier I and Urban Meyer).

In summary:

It looks like we have 2-3 teams who look really good (although Georgia has to shake its doldrums), another 2-4 big name schools hanging on by reputation (although fairly competitive, they're not top 10 powerhouses this year) and a slew of modest to quite bad teams.

Kind of looks like every other BCS conference out there---a little good, some bad, and a lot of ugly.

Hurricane Rita watch?

Perhaps.

The hurricane, swirling out in the balmy Gulf of Mexico waters, is now reported to be a Category Five hurricane.  Ouch.

It appears the storm is headed towards the central to east coast of southern Texas,with future destination unknown but know predicted to settle back southwest, swirling in the state's middle for 1-3 days before sweeping upward through the eastern portion of the state.  Projected landfall is early Saturday.  Yeah, Saturday.

Luckily for Texas, most of the coastal areas aren't underwater, as New Orleans was.  BUT... this thing could do some unbelievable damage to places like Galveston (some of the murkiest but warmest waters I've ever been in).

Inclement weather is certain to threaten the postponement of several CFB games in the area (think Southern Miss @ Houston, Navy @ Rice, Texas State @Texas A&M, Tulane @ SMU).  UPDATE:  Per ESPN story, Houston game postponed until Nov. 12 or Nov. 13, Rice game postponed until Oct. 22, Texas A&M still deciding what to do.  Update #2-Per Rivals.com story, Texas A&M game moved to Thursday.  Update #3-Per FanBlogs story, LSU/Tennessee game moved to Monday on ESPN2, and GameDay moved to the VaTech game.

As an aside, how bad are things for Tulane and Southern Miss that having already lost games to Hurricane Katrina, they may also have another game, road games no less, postponed due to Hurricane Rita?

Anyway, that's the latest.  As usual, USC/ND blogger BrendanLoy is on top of all things hurricane, as well as  The Weather Channel.  University athletic department websites, pre-Katrina, were of little help before a storm in explaining what they'd be doing.  So I'd suggest just emailing one of their administrators if you're curious what their preparations are, or checking the ESPN.com CFB headlines to see if they're reporting on anything.

Post-storm, I found that FanBlogs and PalmReadings (by BCS guru Jerry Palm!) were continuing to report on what had gone on in relation to CFB. 

All America linebackers

Last weekend, Ohio State's A.J. Hawk cemented what will be a unanimous selection to the various All-America teams, recording 12 tackles, an interception, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery against Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns, going great lengths to slow down Young's great running ability.

The showcase game against a big-name foe is all that's needed for many players to get AA attention---remember, awards are determined by the public's perception of a player's contribution on the field, coupled with various types of attention (magazine covers, interviews, being quotable, etc.).

This weekend, UCLA's Spencer Havner may cement the second unanimous All America linebacker spot, just three weeks into the season.  I say may, because I don't know how the game will turn out.  But, a lot of things are working his way.  The Bruins are playing at home against a reeling Oklahoma team.  The Sooners have looked anemic on offense, particularly throwing the ball, and did not attempt a pass in the second half in a close game against a very bad Tulsa team last weekend.

It's reasonable to expect the Sooners to continue to rely heavily on their ground attack and superstar back Adrian Peterson.  If so, Havner could very likely exceed 20 tackles and make a ton of highlight shows.  Think about it, Peterson is hurt, so he's not at 100%, and may not even play a lot of this game.  His offensive line has a bunch of new starters, and is pretty soft to begin with.  They'll be going up against a similarly soft and porous UCLA defensive front.

To me, these factors scream 20 tackles for Havner.  He's got a great nose for the ball and with the way the UCLA defensive line has been playing Matador football lately, Oklahoma's backs may be falling right into his lap for much of the game.

Of course, the game could go completely different, if Oklahoma wants to catch the Bruins off-guard and somehow repair their aerial attack in one week's time.  Either way, a UCLA win and a bonanza of tackles should do wonders for Havner's All America campaign. 

Update on Wednesday, September 14, 2005 at 02:16PM by CFR

ESPN.com's Bruce Feldman is getting the same spidey-sense about this game.

Scoreboard!

In my inbox today was a mystery email recommendation for a cool new website I'd like to share with you:

ScoreBoardPicts.com

Basically, there's a lot of cool scoreboard shots of various games.  You can upload you pictures, too, to preserve for all of history.

I encourage you to send them any and all scoreboard shots you have collected over the years, there's a simple upload feature, so nothing too fancy or painstaking.

Might be a good resource for you team bloggers out there who feel the need to rub it in just a little bit more over a rival.

A cautionary word

Beware, as a fan, from burying teams for early foibles.  I see this on the message boards a bit, as overzealous fans try to proclaim "so and so is overrated".

For example, Michigan looked terrible today, but you can pretty much count on them getting their act together and having a pretty good football team come bowl season.

The same can probably be said of Auburn, and many others.  Even Oklahoma should somewhat recover from their disastrous start.

I remember in 2002, USC lost fairly close matches against Kansas State and Washington State, but transformed itself during an 8-game winning streak to finish 10-2.  It was good enough for a 4th place finish in the polls, but in all likelihood, the Trojans were the best team in the country, relative to everyone else, at the end of 2002.  Maybe there's another struggling team out there right now that people are looking to bury.  And maybe that team will turn itself around and look elite in November.

I tend to be a lot more dismissive of early losses and struggles---if---a team finishes strong, and provides evidence that their style of play is worthy of joining the nation's elite.  I hunch we'll see Michigan comfortably within the top ten when we're chewing the fat on here in November and December.

Remember when everyone was jumping on Virginia Tech last year for their loss to USC and NC State?  I guess they turned out alright.  Basically, we should just try and be careful to pounce unless we're personally convinced a team is weak (Tennessee, perhaps), period, and can provide some justification to that. 

Antiquated football thought strikes again

Here's the ASU/LSU prediction from Rivals.com's Chris Wallace.  Silly justification below:

With all due respect to Arizona State, (I admire what Sun Devils coach Dirk Koetter has done in his four years in Tempe) the Tigers probably have more high school All-Americans on their 2005 roster than ASU has landed in the last decade

The same thing could have been said before last year's LSU game against Iowa, right?  Now, maybe it's true, that LSU's talent overwhelms Arizona State.  But I have my doubts.  I really don't have any idea which way this game will go.  Neither team is in a great position.  ASU, after all kinds of road prep in anticipation of noisy Tiger Stadium ("Death Valley"), is playing at home.  The home crowd could be pretty small given the last-minute change of locations, hardly the ideal "home field" advantage normally given to nationally ranked OOC foes.  They will have no idea what Les Miles' offense and defense will look like.

For LSU's part, they don't have a game under their belt, have had to deal with the hurricane cleanup, and may not be all that ready for a tough road test.

Basically, both teams have great built-in excuses.  I'm hoping for, more than anything, an interesting ballgame.

But the outcome probably hinges less on talent than on what team is further along in its system and preparations at this point. 

This week's games-Week Two

Just updated the CFR "This Week's Games" page---it's a little easier to read than the other schedules I've found.

This Week's Games

Saturday's slate

Check out the slate here.

I'll be out of town, don't know when I'll return, but obviously will be tuning into the games.

Things to look for:

Can Ohio State cover the spread against Miami of Ohio?  Who is their back?  What will Ted Ginn do?  Can Justin Zwick in his 1-game tryout finally move the passing offense?

Will Bowling Green fall flat against Wisconsin's defense or can they continue to look like a legitimate national offense?

Does Tennessee swiftly end the Darrell Hackney hype?

Watch USC/Hawai'i.  What trends emerge on offense and defense against an unusual opponent on the road? Does the new hydra-like offensive coordinator position thing... know what its doing?  What will Reggie and Matt do?  What USC freshmen and reserves make names for themselves?

Will Vince Young have another Michigan performance against LA-Lafayette?

What to make of new Nebraska quarterback Zac Taylor?  Is their offense still a mess?

Can Texas A&M escape Clemson?  What will Reggie McNeal do?

How ugly will the Notre Dame/Pittsburgh game be?

Can Auburn live up to its promise and blow Georgia Tech out of the water?

Will Mike Price year II show continued progress at UTEP?

And for Sunday's games---

Is Perry Patterson a great young quarterback that nobody's talking about, or a dud?  Watch Jason Gwaltney's debut for West Virginia.  He's behind another pretty good back, so he may be limited early on.

Can Brian Brohm get over the nerves of his first start and keep Louisville's offensive machine rolling against Kentucky?

Can BYU's super receiver Todd Watkins light up Boston College?

Will Colorado/Colorado State be yet another thriller?

How will Nate Longshore do in his California debut?  Will the Bears play backup Joseph Ayoob?  What will Marshawn Lynch do?  Why in the world are they playing Sacramento State?

Tune into Boise State/UGA.  No questions, just answers.

I have no thoughts on Florida.  It will take them a few games to really get a grasp of the Urban Meyer offense.  Until then they're just playing ball kind of blind.

Does Navy still have that offensive magic of last year?  Can Maryland contain their run?

Can NC State upset a vulnerable Virginia Tech?  Tech's defense looks ferocious, but so does the Wolfpack's defensive line against a pretty shaky Marcus Vick.

Feel free to comment below on whatever strikes you and I'll respond to the more interesting comments when I get back.

Welcome back, college football!

I'm still figuring out a daily schedule for what will go on at Resource during the week, but count on my weekly Heisman and Top Teams rankings/lists, of course, lots of brief analysis of interesting stats, controversial banter, some more Katrina updates (Outside the Lines on ESPN did a nice show tonight about the Tulane team's relocation---pretty sad), and much more. 

Today's games 9/2/2005

Just two games on the slate---

7:30 PM Eastern-Indiana @ Central Michigan 

8:00 PM Eastern-Arizona @ Utah (ESPN)

Shockingly, HeismanPundit is picking Arizona over Utah, citing evidence that the Utah coach has talked up changing the offense.  I saw a conference preview show on television just a few days ago with the coach saying just the opposite.  Hmm...

We'll see where this goes, but I'll take the Utes.  Arizona still has a handful of offensive woes to deal with. 

Something to keep in mind

This weekend's games, and even next weekend's, aren't perfectly indicative of where a team is at or is going to be.  I know watching Oregon's game last night, they'll go back and look at that after the season is done and think to themselves, "that looks nothing like how we really played during the season".  The same holds for everyone else.

There's so much feeling-out going on early in the season, and its coupled with unfamiliar opponents often in unfamiliar settings.  The demands on a coach at this point are pretty stressful, because a coach wants to win a game and stay in a position to content for league or national crowns, but the coach also wants to stick with the vision he's set out for his team, which may not always win an early game because his team isn't quite up to snuff or the opponent is stopping you.  So a coach often has to consider choosing between sacrificing the team's development and level of skill at the end of the season (where a team in theory is at its best) for an early win, or with doggedly implementing a scheme and mindset that may pay huge dividends down the road.

We'll see some odd upsets this weekend and the next, but try not to translate that to simply mean a team is overrated.  We are not always witnessing the behind-the-scenes decisionmaking, and quite often a team that has lost early goes on to do great things, and people dog it for some early loss that happened because it wasn't up to speed on its own system yet or its coach held back or what have you.